2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Papafox]

Current concerns regarding my TSLA trading funds (not core shares): To de-leverage on the way up or on the way down, that's the question...
Anyone have any opinions they'd like to share on that? I believe Papafox sells his LEAPs on the way up. If you de-leverage on the way down, since TSLA can shift so quickly, waiting for a trend reversal indicator may not be all that worthwhile. So far on this climb, I've continued leveraging rather than the reverse but it is definitely time to think about the opposite. I'm mainly in shares at this point plus some J19 LEAPs and a few short term calls to hold until we get to the M3 reveal.

I tend to de-leverage on the way up by selling deep in the money leaps and moving the money into stock. I've moved from over 200% leverage at 180 to 130% leverage now, but even with my lower leverage yesterday was an epic gain. When the run up looks to be over for a while I like to be at 100% then, which is the equivalent of no leverage, just stock. I'm doing things a bit differently this time and holding some of the Jan 19 DITM leaps and holding some cash so that after a sizable dip I am in a comfortable position to re-leverage a bit if it makes sense.

The thing about a big breakout such as this is that you really don't know where the top will be and there will be some bumps in the road on the way up. You want to get to a point where you're okay if the SP runs higher or if it takes a dip. You want to eventually get to the point where you're comfortable riding out the bumps because at some point in 2018 it's going to get much better than what we see right now.

Call options are a bugger to sell at a decent price when the SP is heading down and for that reason I prefer to be out of calls that I intend to sell, before the stock tops out at the end of a big run. I plan to hold my DITM J19s well into 2018 and so they shouldn't be a problem.

 

[MartinAustin]

$382.. there's my 10-bagger...

 

[seabie]

$382.. there's my 10-bagger...

Congrats! I'm new around here although been lurking for a while. $382 is my 2-bagger

 

[SBenson]

Updated table. Not quite what I expected for yesterday or day before. Lets watch for a day or two before we make a judgement.

 

[theschnell]

I doubt they'd shed a tear for the longs if things weren't going well for us. After years of lies and vitriol they are getting exactly what they deserve.

I agree its what they deserve, but I still feel bad for them...

 

[bdy0627]

Deleveraging on the way up has been my approach. Losing some gains, but better positioned to protect gains from a negative event. Went from out of the money J'18 and J'19 leaps to deep in the money J'19 leaps. Currently in J'19 250 leaps. For each $10 gain, have been repositioning into $10 dollar higher J'19 calls and placing the gain in cash. Quite a run for TSLA, but there is more since we still have a short squeeze ahead. Seems we are getting some help from large investors who are in for "the kill" of the shorts.

So you focus in general on LEAPs instead of shares? Or do you maintain a lot of shares as well? Thanks

 

[farzyness]

Here's a point of intel that might be of value:

A member of my family placed an order for a new Model X - website said July delivery.

He received a call from Tesla telling him it won't ship until August, but they have an inventory car that's literally the same spec (minus center row console), in addition to premium upgrade package and upgraded sound. The car only has 900 miles.

And guess what - it's only $800 more expensive after a $5k discount.

I think we have a Q2 push fully underway - in addition to a stock clear-out to make way for a refresh maybe?

 

[winfield100]

did a "bunch shorts" buy to cover at the opening? look at vol/A/D correlation blip. Am i interpreting correctly?

 

[MitchJi]

FSD

I've been waiting for this as well. Lack of any meaningful Powerpack revenue in 1Q17 was surprising to me.

Coming in Q3 or Q4.

Current concerns regarding my TSLA trading funds (not core shares): To de-leverage on the way up or on the way down, that's the question...

Anyone have any opinions they'd like to share on that? I believe Papafox sells his LEAPs on the way up. If you de-leverage on the way down, since TSLA can shift so quickly, waiting for a trend reversal indicator may not be all that worthwhile. So far on this climb, I've continued leveraging rather than the reverse but it is definitely time to think about the opposite. I'm mainly in shares at this point plus some J19 LEAPs and a few short term calls to hold until we get to the M3 reveal.

My opinion is that it's a great time in terms of the TSLA SP to maximize your leverage. If you are concerned about the current macroeconomic conditions that might be a good reason to deleverage. I recently rolled all of our portfolio except for one share and two August $370's from J19 $320's to J19 $380's. Paid $62.50, currently at $73/$76 .

In the current market this feels like shooting fish in a barrel. I'm trying to put together a post explaining my reasoning. Hopefully by the end of the week.

 

[Lump]

In the current market this feels like shooting fish in a barrel. I'm trying to put together a post explaining my reasoning. Hopefully by the end of the week.

Hello

 

[gene]

Hello

You are a very smart man.

 

[MitchJi]

Deleveraging on the way up has been my approach. Losing some gains, but better positioned to protect gains from a negative event. Went from out of the money J'18 and J'19 leaps to deep in the money J'19 leaps. Currently in J'19 250 leaps. For each $10 gain, have been repositioning into $10 dollar higher J'19 calls and placing the gain in cash. Quite a run for TSLA, but there is more since we still have a short squeeze ahead. Seems we are getting some help from large investors who are in for "the kill" of the shorts.

I've been doing the opposite, but not as frequently. Instead of putting the money in cash I've been rolling to higher strike prices. This is IMO an epic opportunity. I'm not sure why the $50k drop on our portfolio on Friday didn't bother me at all. It might be because I'm extremely confident or that I don't worry about money.

Here's a point of intel that might be of value: A member of my family placed an order for a new Model X - website said July delivery. He received a call from Tesla telling him it won't ship until August, but they have an inventory car that's literally the same spec (minus center row console), in addition to premium upgrade package and upgraded sound. The car only has 900 miles. And guess what - it's only $800 more expensive after a $5k discount.

I think we have a Q2 push fully underway - in addition to a stock clear-out to make way for a refresh maybe?

A refresh before the M3 ramp is likely. So if it's underway it's a good sign for the M3 ramp.

 

[MitchJi]

Hello

Hello

 

[Lump]

Hello

Hello

 

[Lump]

You are a very smart man.

Hello

 

[Bgarret]

Hello

Gentleman

 

[bdy0627]

I tend to de-leverage on the way up by selling deep in the money leaps and moving the money into stock. I've moved from over 200% leverage at 180 to 130% leverage now, but even with my lower leverage yesterday was an epic gain. When the run up looks to be over for a while I like to be at 100% then, which is the equivalent of no leverage, just stock. I'm doing things a bit differently this time and holding some of the Jan 19 DITM leaps and holding some cash so that after a sizable dip I am in a comfortable position to re-leverage a bit if it makes sense.

The thing about a big breakout such as this is that you really don't know where the top will be and there will be some bumps in the road on the way up. You want to get to a point where you're okay if the SP runs higher or if it takes a dip. You want to eventually get to the point where you're comfortable riding out the bumps because at some point in 2018 it's going to get much better than what we see right now.

Call options are a bugger to sell at a decent price when the SP is heading down and for that reason I prefer to be out of calls that I intend to sell, before the stock tops out at the end of a big run. I plan to hold my DITM J19s well into 2018 and so they shouldn't be a problem.

Great feedback. Thanks

 

[mickificki]

Hello

Hello

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Interesting that the blatant manipulation to $350, max-pain for a major options expiration date, hasn't started yet.

Maybe never?

Is the short squeeze here?

 

[DurandalAI]

Hello