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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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I am pretty sure that the US is the biggest market for large SUVs, but I could see China competing for that honor sooner then later if it does not already. I have read that Model X is actually very popular there, but I have no idea if that is true. That brings me back to a question that I cant seem to find the answer to and this weather Tesla opening a factory there allows them to import a certain percent of the product sold and avoid the import taxes. Lets say Tesla builds a super gigafactory there that produces Cars, Solar and Batteries and they sell 1-2 million cars that are manufactured there, does that mean they can bring in 200,000? Can they bring in cars with no batteries and finish them in China for the Chinese market? Not that they couldn't build them there, I think they would be smart to focus on 3 and Y factories in China/India and of course a Y factory in the US.

It's common that in China generations live together, like 3 or 4 generations. Even just two (grand)parents, and two adults, with 1-2 child(ren), that's already 5-6; also, Chinese care deeply about "status," a lux car/SUV is one of those things that show off daily, whether others willing or not, to your neighbors/colleagues/friends/other drivers/pedestrians. I guess Tesla HEPA filter doesn't hurt either, given the air quality in China.
 
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I think the idea is that they get the exact chemical makeup and thermal profile of the assembly, etc. The recipe is what they steal.

Elon official stance is: "Please do copy us. We won't sue."
Tesla is not about what they know, Tesla is about the rate of improvement.

Before China manages to copy some X Tesla's tech, Tesla will aready be way beyond that.
And even if they are still using that X, end result is production of X just increased.

You think Chineese will be able to produce X at lower cost than Tesla? Not without huge government subsidies (i.e. losses).
 
Elon official stance is: "Please do copy us. We won't sue."
Tesla is not about what they know, Tesla is about the rate of improvement.

On the car side I agree but on the battery pack, not so sure...

edit : There's the exact chemistry yes but also the way to make the batteries at low cost (automation), but yes maybe the risk (cheap Chinese knock-offs) is offset by the size of the market this could address.

In Elon we trust :)
 
Volume spike. Trading desks pick it up?

TSLA is deeply undervalued, so there will be times when it shoots up or down absent any news.

The only "news" that matters is that TSLA is deeply undervalued vs. intrinsic value.

Everything else is used by CNBC and others as an excuse to appease "investors" who cannot handle cognitive dissonance.
 
TSLA is deeply undervalued, so there will be times when it shoots up or down absent any news.

The only "news" that matters is that TSLA is deeply undervalued vs. intrinsic value.

Everything else is used by CNBC and others as an excuse to appease "investors" who cannot handle cognitive dissonance.
Sounds great.
But, of course, this is still the TSLA market action thread :)
 
Elon official stance is: "Please do copy us. We won't sue."
Tesla is not about what they know, Tesla is about the rate of improvement.

Before China manages to copy some X Tesla's tech, Tesla will aready be way beyond that.
And even if they are still using that X, end result is production of X just increased.

You think Chineese will be able to produce X at lower cost than Tesla? Not without huge government subsidies (i.e. losses).

True for patents to a large extent (subject to "good faith"). IMO not really true for confidential information/trade secrets.

Manufacturing tech is Tesla's moat for next 10 years according to Elon. I agree they can stay ahead by continuously innovating but IMO better to be able to maintain production tech proprietary and continue to build the lead by innovating.
 
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This is such a juicy setup.

Cons:
  • Just a rumor really.
  • We may be right but the reaction isn't right. No one sees it or cares until next week.

Pros:
  • We already know that they are supposed to announce some locations this year.
  • China is an obvious first choice, and best choice
  • We already know that the market loves this rumor. We were at 383 on the rumor. they should love the fact.
  • China is pushing heavily for BEV's and relaxing the rules in some cases, lending credibility to the rumor
  • We have established a base from 370-375. Upper daily BB is at 394...
Earlier this year I was expecting $400 by the end of the year, now I'm expecting $450, and that's just from Model 3 plus Tesla Semi news. I continue my pebble buying as I can. I view extra GFs as mostly neutral and barely positive on SP unless it can be done without share dilution. Personally I think most analysts will be blown away when 2017 is finished out with over 30,000 Model 3 deliveries. I suspect most speculate Tesla will only deliver under 10k.

PS. I never give advice.
 
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Curious when you guys buy these sort of party tickets, how much do you put in it? Just looking for a rough percentage against your core TSLA holdings.

2.7% of my portfolio in my case. But they are 360's which were trading near par value. So if the stock was flat tomorrow due to no news I am not out anything.

Edit: this is one of the largest weekly trades I have ever done. not an advice.
 
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