2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[MXWing]

I have not sold off my short term postitions yet, but have to give credit to people that had the vision to sell on Fri and buy today. Let's see how tomorrow goes, we are still within the parameters of the trend, I think.

I've gotten complacent over the last month as to the Trump factor and the macro risks....

An alternative way to think about it is that people need somewhere to go with their investments. Perhaps convention wisdom is to duck companies highly reliant on H1B talent.

Market took a beating today. But there's two companies that would be impacted _less_ by what is going on in the foreseeable short term:

Tesla and Disney as some examples in my portfolio.

 

[1kEE]

I made a solid 4 dollars today on a call i setup before the market went orange.

Hahah I made a few $100 day trading the stock today, despite being completely off on my prediction. Granted that only offset a small part of the overall account decline. Gotta stay positive in times like this!

We really should have bought a contract or two of puts when everyone noticed the rate of SP increase being faster than normal and everyone was talking about short squeeze.

 

[techmaven]

AAPL reports this evening which can either steady the NASDAQ and DJIA and therefore can help TSLA resume its march, or have the exact opposite effect. A few more blows and this market might freak out.

 

[AlMc]

AAPL reports this evening which can either steady the NASDAQ and DJIA and therefore can help TSLA resume its march, or have the exact opposite effect. A few more blows and this market might freak out.

Agreed. There are several big tech stocks with ERs this week.
I would expect some drama.
Hopefully positive drama

 

[techmaven]

Agreed. There are several big tech stocks with ERs this week.
I would expect some drama.
Hopefully positive drama

I suspect a number of us, including me, would love to have a reset on TSLA's stock price. I think we are going to hit all time highs this year and if you are positioned in stock or options for the end of year, what happens in the next 2-3 months is no biggie. A number of us likely lightened up during this bull run and would like a new entry point. Combined with the uncertainty surrounding Q4 ER, I'm thinking somewhere between $225 and $235 would be a healthy pull back. But of course, the problem is that we are in a season where Tesla could have any number of positive catalysts and therefore we never get that pullback, or it's a much shallower pullback. Or, the market really freaks out or the Q4 ER numbers are far worse than the market expects. The near term picture is much harder today than ever.

 

[Lump]

Tesla Motors: Now Comes the Hard Part
Oppenheimer’s Colin Rusch and team have decided it’s time for a closer look and decide it won’t be that easy from here:

With Tesla shares rallying 30%+ since the closing of the SolarCity acquisition and nearly 20% YTD (vs. S&P 500 +2.6% YTD), we believe it is a good time to consider where the company is and where it is going over the course of the year. We believe consensus is that Model 3 first shipments will begin in 3Q17 and shares will rally into that event. And while we are largely in agreement with that sentiment, we believe the ambition of the platform is much broader with the company working on multiple fronts, including restructuring SolarCity, working with Panasonic on two factory ramps, leading the development and implementation of autonomous vehicles, and innovating how cars are manufactured. We expect multiple crosswinds impacting results which could prove confusing for investors.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Yesterday was net shorting day at Fidelity, although there was some covering as well. Today before market open there was 74K shares borrowed, as well as additional 102k during first few minutes of trading. Fidelity replenished shares available for shorting and 55k remain available. In spite of this TSLA does not trade in lock step with NASDAQ today. It is to early to say if TSLA can buck the trend and hold $250.

 

[Rarity]

Good to see the increased interest rate holding. The last time Fidelity tried to raise it, they had to revert it quickly.

Suggests that the market for shorted shares is tightening.

 

[T3slaTulips]

Was there some news? +$2 against down macros in a few minutes.
edit: no volume though. hmmm.

 

[1kEE]

Was there some news? +$2 against down macros in a few minutes.
edit: no volume though. hmmm.

Reminds me a little of yesterday's open. One of the few stocks in the green, but little volume.

250 is some strong support....

The fact the Nasdaq is doing better compared to s&p and DJ is a positive for us.

 

[racer26]

Was there some news? +$2 against down macros in a few minutes.
edit: no volume though. hmmm.

We more or less collided with the bottom of the channel we've been in since December. We're very much in a place of wondering which trend is the strongest - Descending pattern from ATH and Model 3 launch at around 255, rising pattern from December passing through 255 this week, or descending forces from macros because of Trump uncertainty.

 

[1kEE]

Agreed. There are several big tech stocks with ERs this week.
I would expect some drama.
Hopefully positive drama

Anyone have a read on what to expect from AAPL? My guess is it won't be exciting, but that's just a gut feel guess...

 

[T3slaTulips]

Was hoping for something cooler like not only is Ireland divesting their $8bln from fossil fuels but they're bringing some of that to $TSLA.
Ireland votes to stop investing public money in fossil fuels

 

[TrendTrader007]

Laughable to see TSLA bulls deleveraging just as stock takes off

 

[mutle]

Anyone have a read on what to expect from AAPL? My guess is it won't be exciting, but that's just a gut feel guess...

A much bigger question is how WS will react. I've seen amazing reports with terrible reception but also the opposite. The reaction usually does not have anything to do with the report but rather if Analysts think the guidance is correct or not. Recently Apple got penalised for being inside their own guidance.

With all the negative news, I feel pretty good for AAPLs quarter, but I have no idea what the reaction will be.

 

[racer26]

Laughable to see TSLA bulls deleveraging just as stock takes off

Of course, but what can you do. I'm still pretty leveraged, with ~60% of my folio in TSLA LEAPS. I believe in TSLA and its mission, I just don't know what the short term looks like. By 2019, TSLA's value will be unquestionable.

I don't even feel bad about getting out of my short term options (which were all +60% or better). With things the way they are? I expect the destabilization coming from the White House to only continue getting worse.

Does kinda suck though. Gave up probably a couple k this way.

 

[Irishjugg]

Laughable to see TSLA bulls deleveraging just as stock takes off

I really don't see any rational rain for a take off short term. If you do, what is it?
Long term, yeah obviously.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA speculation is a game where it's best to be cautious when every one else is ecstatic
This is not one of those times

 

[uselesslogin]

Laughable to see TSLA bulls deleveraging just as stock takes off

In my case I simply sold what I bought between $180 and $225 while it was going down. I might be better off if it drops again from these highs and I get to buy in again at a lower price but I won't be regretting anything if we leave the $200s for good this year.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Yesterday was net shorting day at Fidelity, although there was some covering as well. Today before market open there was 74K shares borrowed, as well as additional 102k during first few minutes of trading. Fidelity replenished shares available for shorting and 55k remain available. In spite of this TSLA does not trade in lock step with NASDAQ today. It is to early to say if TSLA can buck the trend and hold $250.

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Not any more, TSLA DID buck the trend this looks very strong.