2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[MitchJi]

I put the deposit down on inventory S60, eventhough I couldn't find buyer for my Porsche 996 Turbo; I couldn't wait anymore.

Tesla found me 'almost not insulting trade-in value' for my SL55 AMG, so that one is gone instead. I'm very excited to pick up S60! And I'm keeping my model 3 reservation, just in case

Congratulations! I hope you enjoy your MS!

 

[GoTslaGo]

Huh, not sure what you're looking at, but weekly is above BB for four weeks now, see attached
Which I see as a good sign, you got to strech that BB to allow for further price appreciation.
Another way to comment on that is that BB is what stopped Tesla SP rise in 2015, it bounced down first time it got in contact with it.
This time around, SP shows healthy dose of disrespect for BB, which to me indicates immense strength. It's 4 weeks now, not 1 or 2

View attachment 212374

I see now, our periods are different, I'm using 50, you guys are using 20. With 50, last week's price approaches the upper band. With 20 it is riding the upper band.

 

[GoTslaGo]

BTW, I did my thing for the 'cause' yesterday.

I put the deposit down on inventory S60, eventhough I couldn't find buyer for my Porsche 996 Turbo; I couldn't wait anymore.
Tesla found me 'almost not insulting trade-in value' for my SL55 AMG, so that one is gone instead. I'm very excited to pick up S60! And I'm keeping my model 3 reservation, just in case

And to stay on point of this thread, as I was checking the car, there was another Tesla sales rep from Montreal with the buyer that was interested. He called my rep couple of times while we were going through the process. And, I'm sure it wasn't doctored; if anything, my weakness is that I'm always very suspicious of the setups, and always looking for one.

Second car I was thinking about, the least expensive inventory X75D was also gone in the number of hours. And finally, few P100Ds that have had some discounts were also gone yesterday, so yeah, inventory Teslas are still selling, though they've become less affordable in Canada. Way less affordable I'm sure Tesla can crunch some interesting data on demand elasticity with price increase over last 2 years in Canada, though they'd have to cross check against overall growth trends, and against velocity of brand penetration in areas where Teslas are being sold. I. e. not all areas grow at the same speed, rate of growth is an (increasing) function of local markets maturity. Toronto is probably now where California was in 2015, Montreal is probably a bit ahead, bc. of the more extensive grants etc...

Great! You know based on @wk057's data, you're getting one of the best deals for your money with the 60. Congrats!

 

[Chris Fox]

I stay extremely bullish on TSLA and in fact bought more yesterday morning when SP was $249.34 or so
TSLA has done something which is rare in its stock trading history. It has closed up positive now for 8 straight weeks, with the last 3 weeks comfortably riding the bollinger. This has happened only twice before in its entire 7 year trading history: in early 2014 and 2013. Former led to subsequent price decline and latter led to exponential price increases.
Putting everything together I think that we are likely to go even higher from here. On the other hand if the SP declines, I expect it to be a rather orderly pullback similar to early 2013 before explosive price action to upside
All in all, I'm pleased with the way this stock is acting and in my opinion 8 straight weeks of price appreciation is cause to buy and not cause to sell, which is exactly what I did yesterday. I could be very wrong here so I do not want anyone to trade on my opinions. I merely state what I see.

Sorry too late. Sold my house and put everything into Tesla because of this post. If you're wrong, I hope you have room for me and 2 cats at your house

 

[TrendTrader007]

So trendtrader do you sell options as well (calls & puts)?

No I only buy calls

 

[Nate the Great]

No I only buy calls

Thanks 007.

 

[neroden]

No I only buy calls

Interesting. Given your self-described highly aggressive style, I'm surprised you don't sell naked puts to raise more cash to invest.

 

[1kEE]

Interesting. Given your self-described highly aggressive style, I'm surprised you don't sell naked puts to raise more cash to invest.

I'm sticking to buying calls as well... options were something I wouldn't touch at all two months ago but this SP run up, combined with TMC support, gave me confidence to give it a try. No complaints so far!

What is the advantage of selling naked puts? You get cash right away, but it ties up margin, so might as well use margin to buy calls, no?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I'm sticking to buying calls as well... options were something I wouldn't touch at all two months ago but this SP run up, combined with TMC support, gave me confidence to give it a try. No complaints so far!

What is the advantage of selling naked puts? You get cash right away, but it ties up margin, so might as well use margin to buy calls, no?

If Tesla is doing well, calls are better.
If Tesla struggles and is chopping around like it did last few years, you lose time-value on calls; on naked puts you sold, someone else loses time value to you.

So, to summarize, rewards are limited with naked puts you sell, but time works for you; owning calls is exactly opposite, unlimited potential, time is against you.

Personal experience, I was doing great on calls for 3+ years, and then almost lost my shirt on long-dated calls with Tesla. Staying through dips is piece of cake with stock, but is nerve racking with calls, as you don't know if SP will recover in time. Just my experience...

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I stay extremely bullish on TSLA and in fact bought more yesterday morning when SP was $249.34 or so
TSLA has done something which is rare in its stock trading history. It has closed up positive now for 8 straight weeks, with the last 3 weeks comfortably riding the bollinger. This has happened only twice before in its entire 7 year trading history: in early 2014 and 2013. Former led to subsequent price decline and latter led to exponential price increases.
Putting everything together I think that we are likely to go even higher from here. On the other hand if the SP declines, I expect it to be a rather orderly pullback similar to early 2013 before explosive price action to upside
All in all, I'm pleased with the way this stock is acting and in my opinion 8 straight weeks of price appreciation is cause to buy and not cause to sell, which is exactly what I did yesterday. I could be very wrong here so I do not want anyone to trade on my opinions. I merely state what I see.

This is core to my thought process right now. The technicals are extremely bullish IMO so I am trying to reconcile the technicals with what is actually going on right now. Is the stock price going up and will continue going up because TSLA is undervalued and all the buyers who have bought and held the last 2.5 years in anticipation of the Model 3 NOT going to sell at any price short of new ATHs and the Model 3 launch? Are shorts going to wait to cover until it's too late at the same time this now very large group of core stock holders are unwilling to sell, thus propelling the stock to ATHs as they cover and new shorts hop in only to cover higher?

The technicals seem to paint this exact picture forming up. To reverse the current trend there needs to be enough stock holders willing to sell. When will enough of the current stock holders be willing to sell, thus stopping the current trend? I think most of them will not be selling anytime soon.

The thing that makes we wary is I don't see a clear catalyst in the next couple weeks that makes a new group of buyers step up to the plate, causing the shorts to cover, and propel us to ATHs. Back in 2013 the champagne bottle was shaken for 2.5 years until Tesla reported positive earnings and the cork of the bottle was popped, unleashing champagne for all those who who held TSLA and a cork in the eye of those who shorted it. Do we need something to pop the cork this time or has there been enough pressure buildup the last 2.5 years that a catalyst is not needed?

Maybe that catalyst is earnings but it does not seem to be prudent to bet on such a huge unknown with short term calls. This is why I am mostly in LEAPS and stock now vice shorter term calls.

 

[TrendTrader007]

This is core to my thought process right now. The technicals are extremely bullish IMO so I am trying to reconcile the technicals with what is actually going on right now. Is the stock price going up and will continue going up because TSLA is undervalued and all the buyers who have bought and held the last 2.5 years in anticipation of the Model 3 NOT going to sell at any price short of new ATHs and the Model 3 launch? Are shorts going to wait to cover until it's too late at the same time this now very large group of core stock holders are unwilling to sell, thus propelling the stock to ATHs as they cover and new shorts hop in only to cover higher?

The technicals seem to paint this exact picture forming up. To reverse the current trend there needs to be enough stock holders willing to sell. When will enough of the current stock holders be willing to sell, thus stopping the current trend? I think most of them will not be selling anytime soon.

The thing that makes we wary is I don't see a clear catalyst in the next couple weeks that makes a new group of buyers step up to the plate, causing the shorts to cover, and propel us to ATHs. Back in 2013 the champagne bottle was shaken for 2.5 years until Tesla reported positive earnings and the cork of the bottle was popped, unleashing champagne for all those who who held TSLA and a cork in the eye of those who shorted it. Do we need something to pop the cork this time or has there been enough pressure buildup the last 2.5 years that a catalyst is not needed?

Maybe that catalyst is earnings but it does not seem to be prudent to bet on such a huge unknown with short term calls. This is why I am mostly in LEAPS and stock now vice shorter term calls.

Yeah! I'd be lying if I said that I knew which way the SP of TSLA is headed over the next several days. Nothing would surprise me: it could go down and correct or it may go sideways or go higher, I have no idea.
I am therefore positioned similar to you
Longer term TSLA should handily outperform the market over the next several months to years
Everyone expects TSLA to pullback so maybe it won't
Or it will
Either ways I really don't care. Other than getting a margin call I'm not really concerned with day to day SP because I'm in this stock to make big money not a mere million or two.
I believe that this stock could make me literally millions over the next several years because it's only a $40 billion company that is at the epicenter of several future trends just now starting to unfold. When a company like Uber is priced at a private market cap of $68 billion or so then Tesla which could literally eat away Uber's lunch is severely underpriced. I would never bet a single dollar on Uber. TSLA will dominate the future of transportation which is a multi trillion dollar opportunity worldwide. So a SP of $250 is a steal and I couldn't care less whether TSLA trades at $300 or $200. I'm not selling a single share unless either fundamentals change or if the SP goes parabolic

 

[TrendTrader007]

Interesting. Given your self-described highly aggressive style, I'm surprised you don't sell naked puts to raise more cash to invest.

I'm super aggressive but not reckless. I believe in going all in when I have an edge. I subscribe to Warren Buffett's philosophy of having a circle of competence so I stick to what I know. Often investors/traders mistakenly assume that more sophisticated sounding strategies are better. I believe the opposite. I trade only long side similar to the legendary Dan Zanger and I keep it extremely simple. My entire focus is to make sure I'm not betting on a loser and that my directional bets are correct. Other than that I don't worry about the complicated sophisticated strategies. I mean, how the hell am I going to compete with all the Ivy League trained quants out there! The only edge a little guy like me has is my conviction. I've been trading since 1998 and at the end of the day success in trading boils Down to the truly elemental stuff: belief, faith and ability to handle losses
As Peter Lynch said: it's not the brain but the gut that determines the fate of the investor
Jesse Livermore: it was not my thinking but my sitting. Investors who are right and can sit tight are rare

 

[Cattledog]

The thing that makes we wary is I don't see a clear catalyst in the next couple weeks that makes a new group of buyers step up to the plate, causing the shorts to cover, and propel us to ATHs.

I can think of several things, though I don't know if they'll happen and if they do, I don't know when. Next two weeks, hmmm, if we're lucky. But I believe the first two will happen in 2017, third and fourth in 2018, fifth by 2020, and sixth perpetually:

1. Tesla will report 800,000 Model 3 reservations at some point in 2017.
2. Tesla energy will report huge backorders in 2017, on the order of several GWh. That's not huge revenue, but it will better reveal huge potential.
3. Model Y will be unveiled in 2018 and come to market in 2019.
4. Solar roofs will actually be really popular.
5. Tesla will release driving as service autonomy package in specific locations. Like Tesla energy, but it will better reveal huge worldwide potential.
6. Tesla will announce something, or giggle at an Adam Jonas question on the earnings call, that will reveal something else that we don't know about yet but will forecast big future revenue. The Boring Company?

 

[vgrinshpun]

There were 154K shares available for shorting at Fidelity, interest rate went up to 2.5% Friday afternoon and is remaining at 2.5% this morning. Friday was a day of net shorting at Fidelity.

 

[Hogfighter]

I can think of several things, though I don't know if they'll happen and if they do, I don't know when. Next two weeks, hmmm, if we're lucky. But I believe the first two will happen in 2017, third and fourth in 2018, fifth by 2020, and sixth perpetually:

1. Tesla will report 800,000 Model 3 reservations at some point in 2017.
2. Tesla energy will report huge backorders in 2017, on the order of several GWh. That's not huge revenue, but it will better reveal huge potential.
3. Model Y will be unveiled in 2018 and come to market in 2019.
4. Solar roofs will actually be really popular.
5. Tesla will release driving as service autonomy package in specific locations. Like Tesla energy, but it will better reveal huge worldwide potential.
6. Tesla will announce something, or giggle at an Adam Jonas question on the earnings call, that will reveal something else that we don't know about yet but will forecast big future revenue. The Boring Company?

I'm actually leaning the other direction, short-term. Here's why:

1. Macro has had a nice run and looks a little overdone. Uncertainty over the presidencial policies doesn't help.
2. Last quarter missed on deliveries, so logically will most likely be a miss financially.
3. Model 3 is still too far down the road for Tesla to accurately say when they will begin volume deliveries. They'll punt when asked about it.
4. SolarCity's financials muddies the picture somewhat. Although TE can be a white swan, they've been very tight-lipped regarding revenue/gross margins in their forecasts.

Long term, it's a no-brainer. Short term I'm getting a little defensive.

 

[WarpedOne]

2. Last quarter missed on deliveries, so logically will most likely be a miss financially.

I say this will be a 'white swan'. Everyone and his brother has given in into a financial miss idea, because deliveries were a miss.
Without much thought how big a miss they really were and what else is going on - SCTY and TE.

We need to start compiling a list of (payed for?) TE projects to gauge the current size of this third of a business. And then repeat the story with solar panels as they will be the "third half" of Tesla financials.

 

[Nate the Great]

Premarket looks decent no longer looking oversold. Coming down from an overbought condition.

The increased borrowing rate at Fidelity is encouraging.

 

[AlMc]

I can't claim credit for this 'find'.
'Lump' sent it to me this AM:
Thanks Lump:

Electric vehicle battery cost dropped 80% in 6 years down to $227/kWh – Tesla claims to be below $190/kWh

 

[Hogfighter]

I say this will be a 'white swan'. Everyone and his brother has given in into a financial miss idea, because deliveries were a miss.
Without much thought how big a miss they really were and what else is going on - SCTY and TE.

We need to start compiling a list of (payed for?) TE projects to gauge the current size of this third of a business. And then repeat the story with solar panels as they will be the "third half" of Tesla financials.

Tesla’s Battery Revolution Just Reached Critical Mass

A couple of good snippets from JB Straubel....first, that TE is growing like gangbusters. But perhaps more crucially, that stationary storage won't be big enough to break out from the financials 'for a couple of years'.

I sure do hope they give guidance for 2017 re: TE.

 

[Kenriko]

I sold all my shares. Not because of TSLA but because of the havoc that Trump created on Friday. I'll be waiting on the sidelines, my guess is the chance that TSLA is dips below $252/share in the short term is good enough that I'll wait.