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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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The article mentions an earnings report date of Feb 15. Did this get officially announced somewhere and I missed it?
Nope. It also asserts several other falsehoods or unknowns as facts.

Someone at yahoo finance really has a bone to pick over TSLA. Their news coverage of us always sucks. Poor quality and always written in a bearish tone.
 

Pretty interesting chart. SP holding fairly steady (esp. considering macros) despite shorts apparently piling in. Getting a bit warm around here ....

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Short_sellers_are_piling_into-906718465cb66331505770b1acad4c17

(Tesla S3 Partners)
 
Nope. It also asserts several other falsehoods or unknowns as facts.

Someone at yahoo finance really has a bone to pick over TSLA. Their news coverage of us always sucks. Poor quality and always written in a bearish tone.
I'm assuming anyone intelligent will ignore this, including the incorrect ER date.... but fun to read this stuff for humor.
 
Nope. It also asserts several other falsehoods or unknowns as facts.

Someone at yahoo finance really has a bone to pick over TSLA. Their news coverage of us always sucks. Poor quality and always written in a bearish tone.
I especially like the "in an effort to deflect criticism" line re: why Tesla states that delivery numbers should be considered conservative because they only count actual deliveries + correct paperwork.

Or, you know, they are just trying to report the facts as accurately as they can in the release.
 
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Well I was super wrong about today possibly turning out like Jan 4th. At least we are ending green with the market red.

Still flirting awfully close with the bottom of the channel. I would expect the channel puts us 260 < TSLA < 265 by Friday's close. I've been right the last two weeks about that. Suggests a big day tomorrow or the next day, hopefully we can get a reprieve from the barrage of uncertainty long enough to pull it off.
 
Well I was super wrong about today possibly turning out like Jan 4th. At least we are ending green with the market red.

Was an odd pattern. Be interesting to see the short data -- one explanation could be the continued up-trend pressure in the morning (large buyer(s), possibly), defused by increased shorting in the afternoon. Of course, it could be many other things as well.
 
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Thank you very much, this is getting really interesting. According to the Shortsqueeze.com TSLA float is 117,911,90 shares, which means that we are up to whopping 41.3M shares short. Here is an updated table from my post couple of weeks back, showing an interesting perspective. Evidently there is strong and methodic buying pressure. In spite of millions of additional shares flooding in due to shorting, TSLA continues marching up, defying really scary macro situation as well.

Something is up. I smell another pie.


Snap1.png
 
Taking into account replenishment of shares available for shorting at Fidelity before market open, there were total of 219k shares borrowed for shorting today, but TSLA is green, bad macro conditions notwithstanding. This looks incredibly strong. I am still holding my spreads, probably will roll them out, increasing the delta sometime this week if we continue to stay in the regression channel, but will sell them if we are breaking down below the lower trend line.

Snap1.png
 
For those looking at APPL tonight as an indicator of market reaction tomorrow; Here is a good synopsis of current ER expectations and why:
Apple Expected to Report Best Financial Results Ever Today Amid Return to Growth

"
• Mark Moskowitz of Barclays: $76.6 billion
• Timothy Arcuri of Cowen and Company: $76.68 billion
• Steven Milunovich of UBS: $76.8 billion
• Amit Daryanani of RBC Capital Markets: $76.9 billion
• Rod Hall of J.P. Morgan: $76.9 billion
• Bloomberg News compiled average: $77 billion
• Yahoo Finance compiled average: $77.38 billion
• Reuters compiled average: $77.4 billion
• Brian White of Drexel Hamilton: $77.61 billion
• Neil Cybart of Above Avalon: $80 billion
"

AAPL taking off in after-hours trading.
 
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An additional data point, and counter to "shorts are piling in" - Fidelity hasn't moved their borrow rate (rate they pay to borrow shares). That remains steady at 1%. Many reasons why that can be - if enough of the buyers of shares are buying on margin, then those shares are also immediately available by the brokerage to lend them out again.

What I can see using the borrow rate, is that the balance between supply and demand (wherever that equilibrium actually is in absolute terms), is reasonably constant over the last month or 2 now. We've seen periods of dramatically higher demand, where the borrow rate is more like 5-8% (and spikes much higher, but usually not for long). We've seen it go to 0 (though that didn't last long either).

I'd be quite happy with 41M shares short personally, and my own view of shorting the company hasn't changed; even if you believe it's a house of cards about to fall over in the first breeze to come along - the trade is overcrowded. If ANYTHING happens to counter your view of the company falling over any moment now, you'll be in a crowded room with 41M of your closest friends, and not nearly enough doors to get out of. With unlimited downside exposure or expensive insurance.
 
An additional data point, and counter to "shorts are piling in" - Fidelity hasn't moved their borrow rate (rate they pay to borrow shares). That remains steady at 1%. Many reasons why that can be - if enough of the buyers of shares are buying on margin, then those shares are also immediately available by the brokerage to lend them out again.

What I can see using the borrow rate, is that the balance between supply and demand (wherever that equilibrium actually is in absolute terms), is reasonably constant over the last month or 2 now. We've seen periods of dramatically higher demand, where the borrow rate is more like 5-8% (and spikes much higher, but usually not for long). We've seen it go to 0 (though that didn't last long either).

I'd be quite happy with 41M shares short personally, and my own view of shorting the company hasn't changed; even if you believe it's a house of cards about to fall over in the first breeze to come along - the trade is overcrowded. If ANYTHING happens to counter your view of the company falling over any moment now, you'll be in a crowded room with 41M of your closest friends, and not nearly enough doors to get out of. With unlimited downside exposure or expensive insurance.

But the rate they charge short sellers has been steadily inching up - from 1.5% to now 2.5%.
 
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