racer26
Active Member
How's the shorting looking? I'm guessing, like usual, that as we push higher, they're shorting more?
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You are free to laugh at people content with mere 100% gains in 2 months (assuming moderately leveraged through this run). I myself am starting to fear that my equity in my home and my 401k balance is not safe anymore, whether it's in TSLA options or gold ETFs or cash. If I can lose my green card at a stroke of a pen, why couldn't I have all my property seized if I'm not allowed back into the country? Yes, I can sue the government if that happens, I know. But it might be cheaper to pay all taxes on my 401k balance, plus the early withdrawal penalty, and move money out of this country. I wish I was joking and that thought hadn't ever crossed my mind.
Not to be overly dramatic, I agree, no reason to take money out of TSLA if you just look at Tesla the company. But a healthy run up and increasing political uncertainty certainly justify taking some off the table.
Sounds like project fear. The propaganda is getting to you.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
It is days like this when I enjoy the sun. The sun gods really had it right. This stock, the cars, and rockets are future you just need to learn how to ride a bull
So far, this company is all american and produces good paying jobs ~ got to love it.
Fossil Fuel comes mostly from outside the country and ultimately destroys the environment. And, jobs are temporary on average.
So far, this company is all american and produces good paying jobs ~ got to love it.Fossil Fuel comes mostly from outside the country and ultimately destroys the environment. And, jobs are temporary on average.
racer26
Active Member
No news, just the channel. I'm guessing that whatever force has been driving us up since December is unfazed by the market uncertainty. Also lends credence to my conspiracy theory about the force's identity.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Maybe laughable, but it comes to each persons risk tolerance. I was happy to secure some good gains. Short term gambling works until it doesn't. Good luck to you all.
Well, I had a lot of calls in the Feb, March, and June timeframes. I've taken most of that off the table at this point. Some of that is the nature of options... if we go sideways for a couple of months, I'm losing IV. It's a very different dynamic than someone holding stock from last December to 2018.
I don't believe there's any reason to sell TSLA stock right now if your horizon is 2018. On the other hand, if you want to trade some, I think there will be opportunities in the near term. The problem for most is picking the new entry point and so if they sell, they might not get back in for the big run to new ATH. That's not really one of my problems, I'm usually too early in the trade.
It would be really painful from a psychological perspective to miss out on an ATH run if that happens before ER, but I think any ATH run before ER would also be a fragile thing...
I don't believe there's any reason to sell TSLA stock right now if your horizon is 2018. On the other hand, if you want to trade some, I think there will be opportunities in the near term. The problem for most is picking the new entry point and so if they sell, they might not get back in for the big run to new ATH. That's not really one of my problems, I'm usually too early in the trade.
It would be really painful from a psychological perspective to miss out on an ATH run if that happens before ER, but I think any ATH run before ER would also be a fragile thing...
Rally has been postponed till tomorrow.
You called that one! I was still sticking to the trend but knew we were within a day or two of trend over.... Trend is still alive!
Interesting random correlation....
Nasdaq has had monthly dips last couple of months, right at the end of the month:
And TSLA has had the same:
Edit: this correlation also emphasizes the fact we're on an extended macro rally and Trump factor will be a greater risk every day.
Edit: there is a lot of randomness to this correlation, as end of December/early Jan we had production/delivery anxiety plus a slight miss followed by GF show-n-tell so a lot of it is just coincidence
Nasdaq has had monthly dips last couple of months, right at the end of the month:
And TSLA has had the same:
Edit: this correlation also emphasizes the fact we're on an extended macro rally and Trump factor will be a greater risk every day.
Edit: there is a lot of randomness to this correlation, as end of December/early Jan we had production/delivery anxiety plus a slight miss followed by GF show-n-tell so a lot of it is just coincidence
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Yep... I was getting a kick out of the fact it's happening every month at the end of the month.
The drivers for the monthly Nasdaq dips and the TSLA monthly dips are totally random but coincide and amplify beta.
Dec-Jan for TSLA was delivery/prod numbers vs end of year rebalancing
Jan-Feb for TSLA is extended rally plus 255 long term downtrend cross, and beginning of ER anxiety vs Trump jitters and extended Trump rally
1. Technicals
2. Steady buying pressure throughout this runup - 2 month, in spite of short interest increasing significantly. Seem to be an indication of methodical institutional accumulation.
3. Solar City sold $256M worth of PPA off their books. Their cash burn was around $250M in Q3, with projections for decreasing in leasing and increasing the share of cash paid installations (financing). If SolarCity cash burn in Q4 was less than $256M cash that they brought to the table in Q4, it would be a game changer - demonstrating that SolarCity can actually produce positive cash flow and support Tesla short term.
There is obviously great uncertainty associated with the Orange Emperor, as well as factors listed above, but down turn from here is far from certain, not the way you seem to see it.
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For those looking at APPL tonight as an indicator of market reaction tomorrow; Here is a good synopsis of current ER expectations and why:
Apple Expected to Report Best Financial Results Ever Today Amid Return to Growth
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• Mark Moskowitz of Barclays: $76.6 billion
• Timothy Arcuri of Cowen and Company: $76.68 billion
• Steven Milunovich of UBS: $76.8 billion
• Amit Daryanani of RBC Capital Markets: $76.9 billion
• Rod Hall of J.P. Morgan: $76.9 billion
• Bloomberg News compiled average: $77 billion
• Yahoo Finance compiled average: $77.38 billion
• Reuters compiled average: $77.4 billion
• Brian White of Drexel Hamilton: $77.61 billion
• Neil Cybart of Above Avalon: $80 billion
"
Apple Expected to Report Best Financial Results Ever Today Amid Return to Growth
"
• Mark Moskowitz of Barclays: $76.6 billion
• Timothy Arcuri of Cowen and Company: $76.68 billion
• Steven Milunovich of UBS: $76.8 billion
• Amit Daryanani of RBC Capital Markets: $76.9 billion
• Rod Hall of J.P. Morgan: $76.9 billion
• Bloomberg News compiled average: $77 billion
• Yahoo Finance compiled average: $77.38 billion
• Reuters compiled average: $77.4 billion
• Brian White of Drexel Hamilton: $77.61 billion
• Neil Cybart of Above Avalon: $80 billion
"
Interesting that short open interest is as large as ever.
Implying this rally was mostly based on long buying.
That would indicate that long term fundamentals are dominating
The recent buying, as q4 deliveries were a miss and a short term negative.
If short term negatives are irrelevant, then guidance will dominate
The stock price, versus the miss. A working hypothesis.
Implying this rally was mostly based on long buying.
That would indicate that long term fundamentals are dominating
The recent buying, as q4 deliveries were a miss and a short term negative.
If short term negatives are irrelevant, then guidance will dominate
The stock price, versus the miss. A working hypothesis.
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I definitely don't see it as certain, moreso I see it as 220 is more likely than 280 near term so I positioned for it slightly by taking some profit from my scty/TSLA 140s.
Thanks for your reply though. Solid point on the institutional buying pressure.
I tend to discount technicals as basically useless unless a very strong short term pattern emerges like the previous 10/week every 4th day thing we had been in so that explains much of our differences in the projection here.
Either way I'm still plenty long
The article mentions an earnings report date of Feb 15. Did this get officially announced somewhere and I missed it?
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