2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[MitchJi]

-54$, -14% in a week... and here I thought we were about to hit 400 in July...

You might still be correct.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Bad day indeed. Let's hope for a better tomorrow

Last year, when we had such big move downwards, there were valid fundamental reasons. SolarCity acquisition announcement was a nasty surprise and Model X concerns were real and material. And to top it all off, presidential election and unexpected outcomes!

Now, we have none of those concerns, and stock moves down so much so violently? Why?

Algobots, triggered stop losses, margin calls... IMHO.

The issue will be when will the counter algobots start to kick in and start buying. We know there are retail folks buying just from this forum. The short interest is down, so they're probably not covering (although arguably these moves would be a smart time for opportunitistic shorts to cover).

 

[Skryll]

I think if you take the 2 extremes:

• 0 M3 delivery, MS/MX stagnate, $150-$180 PPS
• 1000s of M3 in July (such as the M3 owners club rumor), $400-500 PPS

I do wonder how the 1000s of M3 in July rumor came to pass, and who benefitted from the way it all played out.

 

[myusername]

Bad day indeed. Let's hope for a better tomorrow

Last year, when we had such big move downwards, there were valid fundamental reasons. SolarCity acquisition announcement was a nasty surprise and Model X concerns were real and material. And to top it all off, presidential election and unexpected outcomes!

Now, we have none of those concerns, and stock moves down so much so violently? Why?

this stock went from $180 to $380 in 9 months... and now the M3 is "out"... maybe the stock will actually move toward tangible valuations instead of ones based on ever growingly obvious intangible goals.

 

[JRP3]

First day in a long time I wasn't able to check the stock price at all and I come home to this? Crazy pullback for no good reason so I'm assuming a reversal tomorrow. I just saw Andrew Left spewing about his short position, as the hosts pointed out he has no new arguments.

 

[MitchJi]

Hey now, don't start new rumors. Don't manufacture a committment that Elon never made. Next you know there will be SA articles "Musk misses Friday reveal, cannot keep his own promises". The reveal is at the end of july, not this week. Internally they should make SN1, that is IN NO WAY a promise to reveal something.

However, it would be cool if they did. But right now the official expectation is zero announcement. If they do say something, that is extra at this point.

I wouldn't be surprised if he at least tweets a picture.

 

[pz1975]

I'm expecting a floor of around $315-320 personally. I'm not a TA expert at all but taking a guess that a Fib 61% retracement of difference between previous top of channel (280) and recent tops (380-385) seems reasonable.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I wouldn't be surprised if he at least tweets a picture.

What will the share price do if he doesn't tweet a picture? I don't even want to go there.

 

[Sancho]

There's a lot of folks with a huge financial incentive to bring TSLA and Tesla down. They will jump on ANYTHING they can to do so. Don't try to figure out underlying reasons for price movements. Just expect high volatility, and invest accordingly. Don't put yourself in a position to be knocked out prematurely, but don't sit on the sidelines either. Sometime in the next 9 months this stock is likely to take off, but predicting precisely when is pure gambling.

 

[TMSE]

this stock went from $180 to $380 in 9 months... and now the M3 is "out"... maybe the stock will actually move toward tangible valuations instead of ones based on ever growingly obvious intangible goals.

What is your target price to cover your short?

 

[myusername]

What is your target price to cover your short?

i'm options only... my opinion is that Tesla will not significantly roll out faster than competition over the next 18 months, the alternative lines of business won't explode into miracle revenue streams and it will be more and more obvious as time goes by. I expect a return to the $100s by xmas.

 

[MitchJi]

What will the share price do if he doesn't tweet a picture? I don't even want to go there.

I don't think that it matters that much.

The first certified production Model 3 that meets all regulatory requirements will be completed this week, with a handover of ~30 customer cars at our Fremont factory on July 28. More details to follow soon.

But I'm sure they are going to release more information pretty soon.

 

[Navin]

There's a lot of folks with a huge financial incentive to bring TSLA and Tesla down. They will jump on ANYTHING they can to do so. Don't try to figure out underlying reasons for price movements. Just expect high volatility, and invest accordingly. Don't put yourself in a position to be knocked out prematurely, but don't sit on the sidelines either. Sometime in the next 9 months this stock is likely to take off, but predicting precisely when is pure gambling.

Great post. The article today about women at tesla was based on a meeting that happened back in March. So they article came out today in concert with GS, share price drop, etc. it's almost funny

 

[erthquake]

I wouldn't be surprised if he at least tweets a picture.

With factory workers of both genders posting next to it.

 

[elasalle]

If SpaceX launches today, Tesla launches tomorrow ... blame it on the algobots then ..

The price movement around Quarterly release and Earnings are so unpredictable. In the past when you thought the numbers were bad, stock would take off and this time with OK numbers, it's vice-versa

Played some defence today, closed out some Net long Call(Calendar/Diagonals) in 500's, 600's with some manageable losses
However, Repositioned at low to mid 400's. (e.g. jan19 420's were like $60 few weeks back, now back in 30's range)

Lot's in news today
.Volvo going all electric (at the best in 2019, i.e. a full year after M3)
. Baidu spiked pre-market due to AI initiatives
.Towards end of day, oil took a hit, and hence affected price.
. +GS, Citron and Sexual harrassment issue hit pieces


The bad news in Oil, Auto, Tech all seems to be affecting Tesla these days ...

The only good news is that Short Interest must have spiked today ...

 

[RyanT]

Want to know how to not loose money on a day like today? It's simple. Don't sell. It's going to come back at some point.

These movements actually give the smart investor a way to make money if you can time it correctly.

I was thinking the downward movement was from the GS article...

 

[T3slaTulips]

Yay! That rocket finally went to space! Those last two aborted launches were almost as disappointing as the last two trading days. Almost.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm guessing GS will do a downward revision based on their "internal" expectation for Model 3 numbers for the year

Things that make you go, hmmmm...........

 

[22522]

Here is what is going on (as I understand it).

1. There are a set of people who work to keep their money on a rapidly appreciating stock (it is a lot of money).
2. The Model 3 roll out plans did not signal rapid appreciation in the near future.
3. People moved that money out.

This effects the stock price.

Much of this ill wish paranoia is true, and well founded, but let's pretend it isn't.

• If a lot of money flows for $7 these days, it will flow to the paper with the highest anticipated gradient over the next 2 weeks - since money is so easy to move.
• If stock price is determined by expected price gradient vs alternative investments, how would we set a target price... ? Someone said tweet frequency, maybe product announcement frequency. (There needs to be an agile team with meaningful product deliveries every two weeks... this is to keep the capital markets on your side.) Anyway, I don't think they are doing that. And long term slope is unimportant to this money.
• Without minor product announcements 25 times a year, the stock could move sideways at any arbitrary value.

Here are a few product ideas.

1. A deal with Disney, History, National Geographic for display content on the center screen.
2. Drive me home capability on any trained and confirmed route (alarms for help based on lower control limit on lane traffic speed - any anomaly turns on no collision lane discipline)
3. Support for function accessories early: hitch rack, roof rack.
4. Hands free, vandal free home charger for apartments (autonomous car drives into docking station)
5. Frunk integrated food and beverage cooler.
6. Frunk integrated ocean water/beach sand shower.
7. Anything that uses the roof glass
8. Reminder application shopping checklist
9. IoT agreements
10. An insurance product (anything that prempts purchase anxiety and makes money)
11. Offer of cohort groups to help people map from any given ICE to the Model 3
12. Agreement for staffing and installation of home wall chargers (show you have Tesla qualified electricians just like you did with body shops).

All these are real spotting activities to help customers make the transition. The product announcement shows constant customer contact and freezes out competitors....

By doing real work on real product that makes people's lives better.

Anyway, there needs to be a reason to stay less than two weeks away.

 

[Krugerrand]

Great post. The article today about women at tesla was based on a meeting that happened back in March. So they article came out today in concert with GS, share price drop, etc. it's almost funny

Along with NINE negative SA articles.