What Friday reveal? I know Elon said that they think they will have SN1 done on Friday, but he never said there would be a reveal of it.
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What Friday reveal? I know Elon said that they think they will have SN1 done on Friday, but he never said there would be a reveal of it.
Here is my wishful thinking: A video of SN1 going through the entire line. OK with me if it an 8 hour/time lapsed video. Just would be great.
Calling IR/PR departments: Andrea James???
***After today I think we could all use a little wishful thinking***
AntronX
Member
Forget the stock price. I am more concerned about TT007's well being at this point.
You may be right, but I think it is implied that we will see it.
If they don't show it, why announce it will be ready?
I agree with you as far as analysts are concerned, but there has been a barrage of posting on here over the last month about how any price is a price to buy, based on what I think is a very overly positive view of more mediocre announcements. I'm not speaking of investors in general, who look at the analysts, but of people on here, who are generally of the opinion that "normal" analysts can't fully appreciate TSLA value.
I agree that it will be a Friday, but I think it will be Friday July 28th, after/during the hand-over of the first ~30 Model 3s, not this Friday.
Some kind of instagram footage of this seems quite likely to me. Musk did the same for the first model 3 RC car.
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I don't expect to see the design studio til the 28th and I don't expect it to be open to the general public right away. Probably not even all reservation holders right away.
larmor
Active Member
Just for perspective, the following were great buys at any price below $800 (!!!!)-- aapl, goog, amzn, nflx. The news that production is two weeks early is a huge sign for momentum for tesla and that exit rate of 5k cars per week by end of december 2017 is another huge sign...
TE continues, EV semi is coming and solar is ramping. Hard to not miss this opportunity and every point in the past several years is a buying opportunity..
Hey now, don't start new rumors. Don't manufacture a committment that Elon never made. Next you know there will be SA articles "Musk misses Friday reveal, cannot keep his own promises". The reveal is at the end of july, not this week. Internally they should make SN1, that is IN NO WAY a promise to reveal something.
However, it would be cool if they did. But right now the official expectation is zero announcement. If they do say something, that is extra at this point.
I appreciate the optimism. All I am saying is that Elon said it is possible to exit the year at that rate, and being 2 weeks early on 1 or 30 vehicles is good, but not write home to mom good. He made no promise, and as Elon and others have said time and again, building cars is HARD.
bdy0627
Active Member
It seems pretty clear to me that the reason for the share price rising so much in 1H 2017 was because of investors wanting to get in before Tesla launched the M3. Turns out, there was a huge volume of speculative money wanting in so it drove up the share price to pretty hard to imagine numbers well before M3 execution. Then, profit taking took over. Model 3 production is basically what I expected from the information we had over the last 6 months. I anticipated a very limited initial production for employees to facilitate the QA process prior to the ramp. Nothing wrong with this at all. It's just that the share price shot up like a cannon before it even started.
I do not view Tesla's Model 3 plans negatively in the least, not in terms of my expectations. I think they are somewhat disappointing compared with expectations on this forum. I also think the market had figured out and responded to the idea that Tesla was serious about starting production in July, but it did not have the ramp figured out. The ramp might look disappointing to the market. I'm not sure how anyone expected Tesla to have good gross margins on the M3 right off the bat. That's just crazy to think they would. Everyone expected osborning of S/X leading up to the M3, yet Tesla has avoided any serious problem there. They were on the low end of their guidance for Q2 but they still met guidance and did not have a major drop in sales even in the quarter leading right up to the start of M3 production. Was the market actually expecting additional growth of S/X sales rather than osborning? Perhaps so, but I'd call it a rather successful bridge from the S/X era to the 3. I honestly thought there might be a serious drop in sales leading up to the 3.
Now the narrative has switched to a sales plateau. It would be crazy to expect there not to be a plateau for the ultra expensive S and X. Of course there would be a plateau. Most people did not think it would be anywhere near this high. It looks like there is room for further growth of the X but the S is probably at a plateau. Sure would be nice if the company had thought ahead and planned for another vehicle at this point. Oh wait....
Just as JHM discussed earlier in the thread, this is providing a much better entry point for buyers but it will be temporary.
I think your view is very reasonable. I think you are probably on the conservative end of the bull side of this forum though.
Waiting with further buying until myusername says to sell again
bdy0627
Active Member
For perspective, the drop on the day of the Solarcity news was 219.6 to 196.7 (10.4%). Today it was 352.6 to 327.4 (7.1%). There was a lot of angst about Solarcity. Today, we are on the very cusp of M3. It's pretty hard to believe how the market behaves!
I'm actually excited about this buying opportunity now. I know my Jan 19 LEAPS will recover. I'm buying stock tomorrow if we start to recover and hit 335 tomorrow. If it goes down further, I will wait until a bounce and then buy A LOT! As others have said, most analysts I have seen were expecting Model 3 production to NOT start in July, and for 2018 deliveries to be under 50,000. Now we know production has started, and they are expecting 5,000/week by December. So the big risk is no longer there. Add a 15% discount to the stock price, and this is a no brainer to me. (Not advice...).
bdy0627
Active Member
I'm definitely wanting to buy more at this level but am now gun-shy in consideration of a further drop. Rather than guessing at it, I think I'll wait until it materializes. I said that a few days ago but still bought some more today. Couldn't help myself. My trading technique is looking pretty schizophrenic these days. I'm averaging up, down, sideways, you name it. I'm also going to go broke if we keep getting more buying opportunities!
Warning: definitely not advice
Warning: definitely not advice
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