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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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For everyone here I recommend signing up for email alerts from ir.tesla.com at this link: Email Alerts Subscription | Tesla Motors

You will probably find out faster that way than quickly refreshing tesla's website or reading it here. In fact, I was able to quickly get into a stocktwits battle with someone who was still convinced it was Feb 8th because NASDAQ.com said it was guessing so. :oops: :confused:
 
For everyone here I recommend signing up for email alerts from ir.tesla.com at this link: Email Alerts Subscription | Tesla Motors

You will probably find out faster that way than quickly refreshing tesla's website or reading it here. In fact, I was able to quickly get into a stocktwits battle with someone who was still convinced it was Feb 8th because NASDAQ.com said it was guessing so. :oops: :confused:
concur-- very effect and immediate notification- recommended from this corner of the world as well
 
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PALO ALTO, CA--(Marketwired - Feb 2, 2017) - Tesla ( NASDAQ : TSLA ) will post its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2016 after market close on Wednesday, February 22, 2017. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q4 and full year 2016 Update Letter, which will be available on the Tesla IR website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 2:30pm Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook.

What: Date of Tesla Q4 and full year 2016 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, February 22, 2017
Time: 2:30pm Pacific Time / 5:30pm Eastern Time
 
What does a close at about $250 mean for the crossing of the 50DMA above the 200DMA?
Will the 50DMA stay above the 200DMA?

It should. With the 50 MA, you would add the $250 to the top 50 closes, drop the oldest one, and divide by 50 periods. You would do the same for the 200 and divide by 200 periods. This should move the 50 MA mildly, and the 200 MA slightly. Since the last several weeks have been all consistently high, and we know the preceding periods were low (Nov $180), then the 50 should stay above the 200 with a close of $250.

50 MA is approximately 10 weeks, and goes into mid-late November when the price started to come out of it's slump (post merger). Whereas 200 will go much further into the lows of Oct-Nov

Edit: 2nd sentence should say: "add the $250 to the LAST 50 closes..."
 
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Already there...with some "I'm chicken" stops. Will it revert to the market or go up again after the Tesla lunchtime lull? The Lady or the Tiger?
Don't mean to quote my own post, but, no Lady, no Tiger, just a can behind door #3, which we just kicked into tomorrow. We have had a Trump Bump save the channel before. Another day.
 
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Good news, it closed above 250 despite really light trading! 2.48m shares traded vs average of 4.58m... traders were chasing after more exciting things around earnings.

Support at or around 250 is still firm, and I think Papafox is correct that the shorts will play cap and afternoon fade as long as the light volume allows it... so 249 - 253 - 255 ish trading range is how I'm playing it.

We have ER on 02/22, so about three weeks of that kinda bouncing around with macros, random news and shorting on low volume days being the main drivers?
 
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Competition with oil industry for which the current political climate has favored strongly will high light the opportunity that tesla (more than just motors) represents. It will lessen green-EV competition. Deregulation applied to solar and battery solution for homes and industry positions tesla favorably, immaterial of shorts, or wacky one line negative articles. It is hard to argue with an energy solution that is getting cheaper and based on sunlight, which still remains free.
 
So what does everyone think really regarding what the ER will look like.

My predictions:

* Tesla Energy still contributing negatively to bottom line but baked in SP.
* Tesla Motors shows a profit since deliveries appear to be at same pace or better in Q3.

Thinking SP will hold at 250 on the low, perhaps modest gains to 260-265.I feel it will break 280 (it's all time high) either this year (if Model 3 delivers) or next year (If Model will eventually deliver on its presales).
 
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Here is today's update on activity at Fidelity. I've added couple of columns for totals. The Depleted column just shows the difference between shares available in the morning (typically around 8:00am, since I have access to the shorting trading screen starting at 8:00am) and after the market close. The second column with totals - Borrowed - shows shares borrowed throughout the day. Increase of the shares available for borrowing in pre-market is assumed to be Fidelity adding shares to the pool of available since covering at these volumes is not possible during the thin pre-market trading. The Covered column includes increases in shares available caught in my random snap shots and which logically could be attributed to covering, rather than Fidelity increasing availability of shares available for shorting.

Snap1.png
 
With respect to the ER for Q4, there is a decent possibility that it will be baked into the price and there will not be a pullback. (Assuming it's not oversold-too quick of a run up)
The average analyst's estimate for Q4 is -0.44/share. The low estimate is -2.13/share, and the high is 0.41/share. Translating by 161.09 million shares, these equate to estimates of
$343 million loss (low)
$71 million loss (average)
$66 million profit (high)

Tesla Q3 net income: $21.8 million
SolarCity Q3 net income attributable to shareholders: $53.1 million
Amount of Powerpack/Powerwall profit assumed by analysts' estimates: $0

It seems extremely likely that Tesla will beat the average analyst's estimate. The high estimate is the plausible-looking one.

When Tesla beats the average analyst's estimate, will the stock go up? Maybe not. But that does happen fairly often in stocks.

P.S. Yes, the delivery miss will cut profits: 2300 cars less than Q3 * $90K ASP * 23% gross profit margin = $47 million down. To make a $71 million loss, SolarCity would also have to fall back into substantial loss though; Musk said he expected it to be at least breakeven. I personally think TSLA wil show a profit in Q4, but even if it shows a loss, I am pretty sure it will beat the average estimate.
 
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