That Marisa Tomei quote is spot on in my view, for several reasons:
1. Actual knowledge sometimes comes from unexpected, even hostile, sources;
2. Misunderstanding technical characteristics in the case of TSLA can devastate investors as surely as did she destroy the prosecution;
3. As the case of the 1962 Pontiac Tempest shows, technical advance for the sake of fashion ("rope drive", rear transaxle) does not long endure, even made in California;
4. Equating superficial specification similarity with sameness is a serious error.
BTW, all that from My Cousin Vinny?
Seriously, these points seem relevant to me. Elon, JB and others have been quite forthcoming about strategy and planned evolution. They've been less open about tactics and consistently clear about timing and goals. Elon is quite clear about uncertainty, but some want every aspirational goal to be viewed as a firm forecast, thus shortfall from aspiration constitutes a "lie". I am thankful that both Elon and JB do discuss their aspirations; after all their aspirations reflect pretty accurately the directions they are going with investment in new technology, manufacturing infrastructure, sales, service and charging facilities. All those constitute quite specific guidance when we realize that TSLA os growing at >50% per annum. That is of course including the factual reality that they are doing things that have never been done before and changing auto industry expectations in the process.
So, while GM played with the Corvair, Tempest, Toronado/Elrorado and more they never strayed from using their creativity to solve potentially serious problems but avoiding efforts that really would change anything fundamental. One can argue with my point of view, but the Corvair was a big copy of the VW, the Tornado proved giant cars could be FWD, with no real advantage when wrought giant-sized, and the several tempest innovations could ahem been outstanding, but...they weren't.
Long-winded my responses may be, but the difference between actually producing market-changing realities like the Model S, X and 3 portend a future of upheaval. The Semi, Model Y and Roadster will do that too.
As investors we are in for a wild ride for certain, with setbacks and advances all along the way. Ten years from now TSLA will be more nearly mature. Then we'll know.
In the meantime I suggest much of what passes for analysis in this Forum and the other investment Forums depends on forecasting the future of something that is vestigial today. Mark Twain applies, doubly so since even the subject of our investments is unknown to the majority of investors. In that respect we only need to decide about whether our analogous situation is, say, Apple or Osborne. All the rest is short-term trading technical analysis.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I am not in doubt.
