2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[MartinAustin]

The "pilot production" / "test-building" probably applies to the "enough parts for 300 cars" that was mentioned several months ago, in regard to ordered parts from suppliers.

I wonder if we'll see a picture of rows of Model 3 shells or something - in the ER PDF. (wishful thinking)

Dude at Barclays said "...assume zero Model 3 deliveries in 2017" - I think he must need to alter his assumption based on a February 2017 test build start.

Surely we will see some upgrades soon... which won't hurt TSLA.

 

[3Victoria]

Can they do that without the stamping press?

Well, they do have a stamping press (the one for S/X), which maybe can use the 3's dies. One can make panels by hand, too.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Exclusive: Tesla pausing factory for Model 3 preparation this month. This got to be of some concern to bears, particularly those unwise ones who are still holding short positions. The shutdown is now officially confirmed by Tesla:


Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) said on Wednesday it will shut down production at its California assembly plant for a week this month to prepare for production of its high-volume Model 3 sedan, moving the company closer to meeting its target to start production in July.

Tesla said the "brief, planned" pause would allow the company to add capacity to the existing paint shop to prepare it for the Model 3, and other general maintenance.

"This will allow Tesla to begin Model 3 production later this year as planned and enable us to start the ramp towards 500,000 vehicles annually in 2018," said a Tesla spokesman.

He added that the pause was not expected to have a material impact on first-quarter production or delivery figures, as the company had added production days to compensate.

 

[phigment]

Exclusive: Tesla pausing factory for Model 3 preparation this month. This got to be of some concern to bears, particularly those unwise ones who are still holding short positions. The shutdown is now officially confirmed by Tesla:


Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) said on Wednesday it will shut down production at its California assembly plant for a week this month to prepare for production of its high-volume Model 3 sedan, moving the company closer to meeting its target to start production in July.

Tesla said the "brief, planned" pause would allow the company to add capacity to the existing paint shop to prepare it for the Model 3, and other general maintenance.

"This will allow Tesla to begin Model 3 production later this year as planned and enable us to start the ramp towards 500,000 vehicles annually in 2018," said a Tesla spokesman.

He added that the pause was not expected to have a material impact on first-quarter production or delivery figures, as the company had added production days to compensate.

Well, I am hesitantly excited!
On one hand we hear statements from Reuters saying Tesla will start pilot production on Feb 20th, BUT on the other hand we have a statement from Tesla saying they're shutting down to upgrade paint facilities and other general maintenance.

I can't help but think there was some game of telephone through unofficial channels leading to misinterpretation that pilot production is starting.

It reminds me of yesterday's tweet storm where Elon stated that there were no plans for model S & X (and 3) to exceed 100kWh. Some people interpreted that as Model 3 getting 100kWh until Elon specifically stated that the M3 chassis isn't big enough to support 100kWh.

 

[geneclean55]

Well, I am hesitantly excited!
On one hand we hear statements from Reuters saying Tesla will start pilot production on Feb 20th, BUT on the other hand we have a statement from Tesla saying they're shutting down to upgrade paint facilities and other general maintenance.

I can't help but think there was some game of telephone through unofficial channels leading to misinterpretation that pilot production is starting.

It reminds me of yesterday's tweet storm where Elon stated that there were no plans for model S & X (and 3) to exceed 100kWh. Some people interpreted that as Model 3 getting 100kWh until Elon specifically stated that the M3 chassis isn't big enough to support 100kWh.

The Reuters article refers to both the paint upgrades, and the pilot production start in the same article. The first being confirmed by Tesla, the second from sources familiar with the M3 project.

 

[Turing]

Exclusive: Tesla pausing factory for Model 3 preparation this month. This got to be of some concern to bears, particularly those unwise ones who are still holding short positions. The shutdown is now officially confirmed by Tesla:


Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) said on Wednesday it will shut down production at its California assembly plant for a week this month to prepare for production of its high-volume Model 3 sedan, moving the company closer to meeting its target to start production in July.

Tesla said the "brief, planned" pause would allow the company to add capacity to the existing paint shop to prepare it for the Model 3, and other general maintenance.

"This will allow Tesla to begin Model 3 production later this year as planned and enable us to start the ramp towards 500,000 vehicles annually in 2018," said a Tesla spokesman.

He added that the pause was not expected to have a material impact on first-quarter production or delivery figures, as the company had added production days to compensate.

Is this why the stock is up over $2 in after hours?

 

[Crowded Mind]

Is this why the stock is up over $2 in after hours?

Yes

 

[vgrinshpun]

There were approximately 93k shares shorted (vs. 195k yesterday) and 446k shares covered today (vs. 463k yesterday) at Fidelity for a net of 354k shares covered. This is third day of net covering since Monday, with total net covering of 928k shares. Interest steady at 2%.

I am extremely curious what kind of covering can be expected tomorrow given official Tesla confirmation of the shutdown in preparation for Model 3 production and White House discussions of carbon tax.

I was pondering for a while how will we know that we are into a squeeze? I think that combination of high rate of covering as gleaned from the tables with snap shots of short activity at Tesla and SP being outside of Bollinge Band for sustained period of time would be a good indicator. Since BB is statistical predictor of the range of SP movements based on previous period of time (20 days is typical), cataclysmic event like short squeeze is bound to move SP outside of the BB.

The upper BB for tomorrow sits at $265.72. I say that if we gap to $270+ tomorrow (this will bust through the IBD buy in point $269.44, and put Tesla back into the regression channel), some kind of the squeze IMO is on. I'll try to monitor situation at Fidelity and post updates more often if I see notable activity.

(Insert your favorite flavor of disclaimer here - above is not a trading advice)

 

[1kEE]

Sad thing is I'm out of short term trading material to sell (other than the toxic 270 calls sold, which were covered by short-term shares I sold today (double oops)) if we go into short squeeze mode. Might have to sell the medium term stuff I was saving for Q4 ER and 17Q1 if it gets parabolic.

This week has been mostly short covering driven IMHO... And short covering getting panicked by news maybe interesting.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

There were approximately 93k shares shorted (vs. 195k yesterday) and 446k shares covered today (vs. 463k yesterday) at Fidelity for a net of 354k shares covered. This is third day of net covering since Monday, with total net covering of 928k shares. Interest steady at 2%.

Vgrin, thanks again for your valuable input.

To better understand the magnitude of net covering this week, can you please provide your estimate on how many shares short have been covered this week percentage wise?
This could illustrate if there is any short fuel left.
Thanks.

 

[dennis]

A few cars built on the production line, carefully. Ie, first stage, check out the result, tweak; second stage, check out, tweak; ..... get a few cars. Drive them, abuse them, analyze them. Turn up the volume.

I don't think so. Unless they were able to fill the completely vacant spaces I saw for Model 3 BIW and assembly lines 7 weeks ago with fully functioning production lines.

I believe we are talking about "hand-built" beta units. Remember, we have only seen the 2 one year old working alphas and the red static display Model 3 so far.

 

[Bgarret]

TSLA up almost $3 at pre-market open to $265. Hit Euro 248.62 in Frankfurt, or almost $266....

Update: + $4.89....on about 1,000 shares....readying popcorn

Update, part deux: +$6.9 on 2,000 + shares....ate popcorn, moving on to hotdogs and apple pie.

1hr update pre-market: +$7.2 on just over 6,000 shares, looks like more people are up than me and ev-enthusiast over in Germany. As most of the 30+ million shorts awaken to news (Model III on track), technicals (we have briefly exceeded the IBD buy Point twice), stock price (ascending), margin requirements (pending) and fear of being a bag-holder/picking up pennies in front of a steamroller....well, make your own determination of their conclusions. Hmmm...coffee and a croissant sounds nice.

(Actually, headed to the gym, sitting here hitting refresh on the Nasdaq website and providing a culinary infused play-by-play of pre-market is #sad).

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Breakfast here, second coffe, watching.

 

[WarpedOne]

TSLA just hit $270 in frankfurt.
I smell sweating shorts ...

 

[Sancho]

Breakfast here, second coffe, watching.

On this of all mornings, I recommend you switch to decaf.

 

[LST]

271.44 pre Market MET (but on low volume). Will be very interesting to watch. Placed a small leveraged bet to boost the gains additionally (fingers crossed).

A speculation regarding shorting / squeezes:
Could it be, that a big part of the shorting may be of institutional investors (or even insiders) hedging their long position ? The continuous opening and closing of positions might be the rolling of such hedges. So if that would be the case a real short squeeze could only be triggered by a massive, very quick surge of the SP. I am not contesting that there must be loads of the likes of Spiegel, doubling down with their short position when the SP rises like it does now...

 

[ev-enthusiast]

On this of all mornings, I recommend you switch to decaf.

Ok, decaf now.
Got some short term $280 calls instead (for one third of some play money that I suddenly found under my napkin, two thirds remaining for a possible intraday dip).

 

[geneclean55]

12000 shares premarket.... oh and its only 5.41 a.m.

 

[Yonki]

You know, this is a actually a pretty wonderful night to have insomnia. +$8.97!

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR NOTE:
Keep ALL general discussion to the appropriate thread.

This is going to be an interesting end to the week. Stay focused, and please keep the thread thus as well.

===>and note the time I'm posting this...<======