During our run up, the stock hovered around 250 for a while.... looks like that's pretty good support now. Granted, I'm not thrilled with the fact we are there, but I think this is a pretty strong support level.
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Mike Smith
Active Member
This pullback was much overdue and is very healthy for TSLA moving forward. Weak momentum longs are selling and true believers who had been looking for an opportunity to buy are getting in. I suspect shorts understand this and, now terrified of potential M3 July production will cover aggressively when they suspect the downward momentum is petering out. It probably won't take more than a few days. I suspect a very strong open Monday morning as the true believers work up the courage to buy over the weekend.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Beating or matching other major car makers' stocks on a market down day. Could be a good sign that the post-ER dip is going to be temporary. Was looking at $252 to dip another toe in. Oh well I have enough shares, if it never sees $252 again it wouldn't be the end of the world
racer26
Active Member
As of writing - TSLA is the only major automaker traded on US markets in the green today.
I was thinking about why the stock has come down after an ER that had two major positive announcements - Model 3 on schedule, and 20+% margins by year end! I think Tesla Energy was the problem. There were articles talking about the different large installations Tesla had done in California and elsewhere, and I think investors were hoping for significant revenue. The fact that Tesla had a negative quarter with TE ramping up may have been the problem. If Tesla had reported positive earnings off the back of TE, we would be at 300 right now.
Looks like I could have let my Feb 24 $250 short puts expire, but I decided to buy them back for pennies just out of conservatism. I'm not sure I *really* want to put more in at that price level, and maybe it's best to have some cash in case of a future further dip...
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Could also be a reaction to the Treasure Secretary telling FBS chair that he will push US-1st financial policy, maybe people think it will lead to trade war and import tax also.
But still gotta be happy with the TSLA movement today
Mike Smith
Active Member
The reason the stock came down is that there hadn't been a pullback since the Spiegel bottom. The market was looking for any excuse. What actually mattered was the Model 3 update, and with that being absolutely positive we should be moving higher again after this brief intermission.
Nice bounce in the past hour from the $250 mark back up to breakeven from yesterday's close. I'm looking for a close today in the green around $260. Also note, at some point there is a gap to be filled between $263 - $273 from yesterday's opening.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Elon Musk in his letter to employees regarding equity compensation:
"A four year period is used because that’s the vesting length of a new hire equity grant. I believe the equity gain over the next four years will be similar."
Four years ago TSLA was at around $45, so he's predicting TSLA $1250 in four years, which is incidentally very close to what his friend Ron Baron predicted. Very interesting indeed.
Edit: math
"A four year period is used because that’s the vesting length of a new hire equity grant. I believe the equity gain over the next four years will be similar."
Four years ago TSLA was at around $45, so he's predicting TSLA $1250 in four years, which is incidentally very close to what his friend Ron Baron predicted. Very interesting indeed.
Edit: math
Mike Smith
Active Member
Those who wanted in since the Spiegel bottom are now beginning to feel the itch: "Is this my last chance to get in? Am I going to miss it?" Monday morning lift-off is tentatively scheduled for 9:31am.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Wow. What a fight back going on today. $250 up to $257
I have to admit I was looking into selling this morning, convinced there would be another 2-3 percent loss. I would have been right for about half an hour...
I have to admit I was looking into selling this morning, convinced there would be another 2-3 percent loss. I would have been right for about half an hour...
I bought some calls at around SP 251 as day trading material and sold them on the move to 253.... oops left a lot on the table!
Nasdaq is recovering nicely, hoping for a green open on Monday....
Hopefully this doesn't involve a felis mortuus .... I'm sticking to the belief that 250 is pretty strong support.
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Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
I believe this current downtrend is caused by uncertainty. Markets loathe uncertainty, and although we received assurances regarding Model 3 production, uncertainty abounds with a possible cap raise as well as TE. As the markets digest the report and CC, we could see a slow but steady rise again.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Also once we see videos like this
Here's my thinking....
This has been a massive run up, and the people that follow this company closely were happy with the earnings report and guidance. To us this is not a reason to sell. It's exactly what we expected give or take a little. I heard exactly what I expected on the 22ond, and it was quite boring (a number of people commented on being bored during the Q&A).
Maybe speculators started buying around 250 chasing momentum, maybe they were hoping for some huge positive surprise, etc. now they're disappointed and selling or locking in profits or just bored. They were looking for something unrealistic in the ER. They're not happy with things that are going just as planned.
Classic case of buy the rumor sell the news.
We will be fine in the long term, but this maybe stuck in looking for support and bouncing around mode for a bit. That and Nasdaq is shakey, earning season is ending, so bad combo of macros and end of momentum.
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As i said, the idea that we are going to enter a sustained bearish period because of a decent Q4(Model 3 timeline reconfirmed) seems premature. Past major downturns were preceded by sustained bad news while tesla had real problems and was stuck in head down and grind forward mode for several months while shorts beat them over the head with an avalanche of fud on a daily basis. Certainly doesn't appear to me that those factors are present on this pullback/consolidation.
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