2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[racer26]

And yet futures just bounced. Confused

Maybe the market realized that this Obamacare replacement is a big problem?

 

[Snapdragon III]

I feel like people are over analyzing specific milestones, and numbers, which are important to long term success, but not necessarily that useful in predicting sort term price movements. My hope (and working theory) is that market sentiment regarding Tesla is going to change dramatically at some point, hopefully soon, if people start to believe that they might actually pull off what they are planning. If people start to believe the model 3 execution story, and the energy storage story, what looked like impossible goals last year will look like child's play. Once you get over that hump you come to the realization that "these guy's can do anything!" "Who could ever compete with them?" Once things start to turn in a big way it will be self reinforcing, as the short's cover, and the click bait media changes their tune to blue sky optimism. I think it is completely possible that Tesla could rise by 200-300% + over the next year or two. It would probably be over valued, and not make sense, but who cares? The stock market has crazy valuations all the time, and Tesla is the ultimate story stock. I think people will look back on this story years from now and marvel at how stupid people were not to invest in Tesla back in 2017. They will look at the "secret master plan" 1 and 2 and be incredulous how obvious it should have been to everybody that this was going to be one of the greatest companies in history.

I don't have any idea when this shift in sentiment may happen, but I don't see any reason it couldn't be as soon as tomorrow, for no obvious reason. The stock market works in mysterious ways.

On the other hand, it could of course, end up a total disaster, which is why I remain diversified despite my tunnel vision fanboyism of Tesla and the urge to bet every penny I have on it. It is the ultimate story stock, and I love a great story.

 

[kenliles]

In other news, here is additional detail on the SpaceX win. Could lead to more

SpaceX Outbids ULA for Military GPS Contract Igniting Fierce Launch Competition - Universe Today

"There could be as many as 15 Air Force launch contracts awarded this year in competitive bidding between ULA and SpaceX.

The upshot is that ULA’s decade long near monopoly on national security launches has now been broken several times in the past year with SpaceX outbidding ULA based on the price of their newer Falcon family of rockets compared to ULA’s long established Atlas and Delta rocket families."

 

[kenliles]

My read is no vote tomorrow and they put it off till next week.

If they put it to a vote and it fails that is when we need to see a 5% market reaction.

Just one man's opinion.

I think Trump's attention span runs about 2 minutes on major issues, and on signature campaign promises can be extended to 2 days, now reached. And he wants a vote to move on to the next one, whatever that is.
So I'm guessing there will be a vote, will fail, but market won't drop the full 5%.

If I'm wrong, I'll provide the beer for your DaveT $400 SP Halloween party!

 

[AlMc]

I think Trump's attention span runs about 2 minutes on major issues, and on signature campaign promises can be extended to 2 days, now reached. And he wants a vote to move on to the next one, whatever that is.
So I'm guessing there will be a vote, will fail, but market won't drop the full 5%.

If I'm wrong, I'll provide the beer for your DaveT $400 SP Halloween party!

Ken,
Your on!

I can't speak for Dave but as I age my beer consumption ability tends to drop. So, it may be a cheap pay off

 

[Waiting4M3]

At the long term, I agree battery cost is key to margin. But at early ramp up, fix cost shared by low volume and production inefficiency can heavily suppress margins.

What I was trying to say is that by Q4 2017, when people try to gauge the PPS target going forward, they will base it on the TE battery margin and forward looking M3 volume, and look past the low/negative M3 margin in Q3 due to low volume early production.

 

[pGo]

So I like 300 and even 400 PFS discussion however, a gentle reminder that Tesla has never been on time. Recent news is AP2 hardware feature parity with AP1 not being there after 3 months. I think the ramp will be faster than MS and MX but exiting at 5k/week is something I just don't see happening.

The share price depends on the execution of M3 now and 300+ is the best case scenario.

 

[Waiting4M3]

@Waiting4M3 GF isn't ramped up yet and won't be for a while more, we won't get a solid read on battery margins until that's done.

If they can do the SA deal at $250/kwh I would say the volume could be high enough now for decent margins

 

[FredTMC]

Ken,
Your on!

I can't speak for Dave but as I age my beer consumption ability tends to drop. So, it may be a cheap pay off

Ken, no way they put it to a vote if it's gonna fail. They'll delay it again till Monday if they don't have the votes.

 

[zdriver]

And yet futures just bounced. Confused

Reduced uncertainty.

 

[DragonWatch]

My MX will sit quietly in the delivery shed until my wife (little red riding hood) and I return to pick up the car Monday 3 April 2017. Ordered the car on 22Feb17 and were told it would be late April or early May delivery, so my wife planned our trip to go visit her aging (90 yrs old) parents from the 27th of Mar thru 1Apr (no joke). Last Tuesday we got an email that the build had begun. No problem, sales guy said two weeks to build. Today we got an email that they would be done this weekend with transportation around Wednesday and final prep for delivery on Friday 31Mar17.
Sorry folks, it is a bridge too far:-(. I almost had a deal to fly home Friday and go directly to the delivery point, but mother-in-law is already not happy that the visit is so short.
My one car will be in the colum of paid for but not delivered:-( Grrrr
Hopefully I will not have to tell the in-laws that their meals on wheels may be coming to an end.

 

[Xorbit]

Here's the 4-hour chart. It would be nice if we could bust through (and close above) the 20-period black BB centre line. In my experience price tends to get drawn to either the Upper/Lower Bollinger Band, or the centre line, so I'd look for it to move up and touch the Upper Band at $265.16 and then hopefully 'walk up' the Upper Band in a similar way to the price move shown by the arrow.

 

[bonaire]

Reduced uncertainty.

certainly.

The /ES pushed through slightly, bounced off of and is increasing off a Fib level of 161.8% (~2338.75) based on 2015 high price and 2016 low price. Almost to the "penny" on where it reflected. So, perhaps a catalyst is forming for a market upswing again. Unless North Korea goes wacky or Trump tweets too much.

 

[Xorbit]

In my experience price tends to get drawn to either the Upper/Lower Bollinger Band, or the centre line, so I'd look for it to move up and touch the Upper Band

If the same observation is applied to the weekly chart, it would gives us a price target of $291 and an all-time-high! But that's perhaps getting ahead of things

 

[JRP3]

Trump is trying to force a vote https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/23/us/politics/health-republicans-vote.html?_r=0

 

[MitchJi]

Elon tweets:
Am noticing that many people think Model 3 is the "next version" of a Tesla, like iPhone 2 vs 3. This is not true.

Model 3 is just a smaller, more affordable version of Model S w less range & power & fewer features. Model S has more advanced technology.

Model 3 was going to be called Model E, for obvious dumb humor reasons, but Ford sued to block it, so now it is S3X. Totally different

 

[LoL Rick]

So $4 pop based on Elon's mood?

 

[MitchJi]

More Elon tweets (I can't keep up, check twitter):

@asimo3089 How about the video we just took of the first Model 3 release candidate drive?

 

[moe.salih]

More Elon tweets (I can't keep up, check twitter):

@asimo3089 How about the video we just took of the first Model 3 release candidate drive?

Video here: Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Xorbit]

Here's the 15-minute and monthly charts. I'm not particularly interested in short-term moves, but I do think charts are fractal, so express the same properties over multiple time frames. In both cases we have a longish sideways period of consolidation, Williams%R goes pink/overbought, MACD crosses green, 5 and 10-period moving averages cross higher through the 20-period centre line. I

I'm going on the optimistic assumption that the 15-minute is a precursor for the monthly. Notice how price on the 15-minute gets 'trapped' between the Upper Bollinger Band and the 5-period moving average. This is exactly what happened in the big up move in 2013 and what I hope will happen in the coming months. Exciting times!
15-minute
monthly