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Not very insightful, but this thread is totally manic depressive.
So is the market.
Once the M3 production numbers will roll up, probably current august (4-6 weeks after the start). If they're positive, then, that's when the huge bull will take form.
This is a excellent point, so I will most likely buy short term volatility insurance puts the days leading up to the shareholder meeting.
Here's another potential black swan from the shareholders meeting:
Now that Elon is effectively "CEO" of SolarCity, he'll have to tell that guy from last year where the heck his darn bikes are that SolarCity "stole."
ValueAnalyst
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ValueAnalyst
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I think leading up to the July event, but if not, following a tweet about reservations crossing 1 million within one week of the event.
I am not doing anything different to time a potential short squeeze. All stock all the way.
When my university was going through a reorganization, mostly to create more positions for administrators, I wrote a fanciful piece for our student newspaper about my ideal university. Unfortunately I can't find it now but there was to be a school of business, sort of. It was a school of administration for doing the things that have to be done with two departments, a department, janitors all, including the usual clean up types (for bathrooms or the likes of Bain Capital) and another with the normal financial and spread-sheet concerns. Leaders along with statesmen were to be found in the school of art which was devoted to study of the things that cannot be done.
When I was about to graduate I considered a position at Proctor and Gamble which we at MIT considered the best company to work for. In the interview the Manager of their Quincy plant asked what's your concept of management. Filled with totally unjustified confidence I replied, "one cannot improve upon Socrates. Some are born to rule, others aren't." In my dotage I think that explains Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Roosevelt and, paradoxically, Abraham Lincoln.
The head of our English department dismissed my piece as "crazy."
I once was snubbed by a member of our homeowners' board who considered himself a business-type compared to this pointy headed professor. "You remember, he said, the quotation from Bernard Shaw don't you?" Inadvertently I put him down by asking "which one?" He supplied the famous quote, "those who can, do, those who can't teach." I wasn't witty enough to say "at the university level if you can't teach you become an administrator."
Which reminds me of a joke told by the then President of Colgate University at a faculty gathering. Please ignore if you are offended by my potty mouth. This one's not scatologic like many of Shakespeare's.
The president was visiting a house of prostitution and came across the madam who was in line with the girls. "Why are you here?," he asked. "Oh, she said, you know I never liked administration."
I agree, as some subsequent posts note, we and the market are bipolar.
I presume you won't take offense at the variation heard frequently (in jest) in the science department at my university with a large excellent education department. "..., those who can't teach, teach education"
But back closer to the thread, I am (not so) patiently waiting until late June (59.5 and other rules) to move more of restricted 401K to IRA at Fidelity so that I can add to my current 4% of funds investment in TSLA. These shares were purchased in late December through February with an average price of about 229 from chasing it up too cautiously.
So for the next weeks my selfish sentiment would be quite happy to continue trading sideways. I hope to increase holdings before the second quarter delivery numbers are available.
My primary question for the next 7 weeks is how greedy do I want to be, and what % will my wife tolerate. I am all long shares and currently thinking a 'conservative' 20-25%. For the last 25 years my 401K is mostly in growth funds. I was able to tolerate low balances in 2009 which has much more than come back in the last five years. Given the price movement, increasing by 6 times will only net 4 times the share count, or less, or more...
My M3 deposit so far is 20 after tax shares (avg 219), which I have recently rationalized selling when needed, by adding to the pretax holding for a net increased position. Go TSLA.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Some 401k plans allow you to Barrow, with no tax implications, up to half your vested value. The cool party is that the interest you pay, about 6% for me, is paid by you to you. You can take as small of a loan as you want and pay it back any time with no penalties. If you are only 7 weeks away, then probably not a good solution, but if you don't want to convert it and are just doing it to get better investing options for part of your savings, then this option might work.
The problem with borrowing against your 401k is that the penalties if anything goes wrong are very severe. And it's the IRS that determines and administers the penalties. It's like borrowing your own money from the local loan shark. You don't want to do it unless you're desperate, and you DEFINITELY don't want to do it when you're desperate.
I was raised on such jests as early as my M.A. work. Based on her experiences with our education management crew that prejudice changed slightly as my ex got her ED.D. She went on to cap her career as director of high schools at one of the largest school districts in California at a salary I envied greatly. She also had a solid M.A. thesis, "A Linguistic Analysis of James Joyce's Ulysses," which I had the honor of typing. Unfortunately, she could not manage me well.
Does anyone know what platforms allow you to trade options and leaps from the UK or Australia? I currently use CFDs to trade tesla without paying a currency conversion but don't like that they close out as soon as the share price drops below the stop. It reduces the amount of leverage I can use for medium term holding.
I'm based in Austria and I have openend an account at Interactive Brokers for this reason. Tax is getting more complicated but at the end it is cheaper than a local broker.
Reciprocity
Active Member
You have the opportunity to pay it back at anytime with no penalty. Only reason you would be forced to pay it back before the end of the term of the loan is if you lost your job as you typically have to roll over your 401k at that point. Payments come directly out of your paycheck, just like your contributions. If you lose your job, you have 6 months to pay back the loan. Certainly wouldn't max out the loan, just enough to meet your current needs so if you wanted to go from 4% in Tesla to 8% ,you only need a loan of 4%, not 50%. None of this really matters if you can wait 7 weeks. I wish I could transfer my whole 401k, I hate the investing options. Its not like they are super safe, but I only have about 30 funds to choose from.
mickificki
Member
Musk is a lot more *inventive* than the current Apple management.
After the Model Y and the Semi and the Pickup and five Gigafactories and the Solar roof and the other solar panels I'm sure they'll realize they need to start financing their own mines for raw materials (he's actually talked about this) and giant recycling centers, and they can build battery-operated trains and battery-operated airplanes and battery-operated container ships and... well, you get the idea. The mission is to "accelerate the electrification of transport", and they won't have more money than they know what to do with until *everything* is operating off renewable electricity. Until then, money goes into shifting more things to renewable electricity.
Musk has to figure out how to launch rockets on Mars without bringing the fuel from Earth, you know.
At some point he might start funding electricity-to-rocket-fuel operations -- or he might try to build the space railgun, which could cost more than Apple's market cap.
Estimates are that the space railgun on Earth would cost $60-$120 billion, and that's probably lowball. (You have to buy the side of a mountain, among other things, and nobody ever considers land purchase costs in these estimates.) Save a lot of money on launches though. Dunno what the Martian one would cost; probably more due to the lack of supply chain for the materials.
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Munger is cautious and he's correct. IQ is not quite the right way to put it. There have been a lot of very brilliant people who are really great at a whole lot of things who develop.... excess arrogance. Some arrogance is normal and desirable, but they move into a new field and don't do their research, and then they fall flat on their face and embarass themselves. Not because they aren't smart enough; becuase they weren't humble enough. So far Musk has avoided this with most of his ventures (and you know which ones I think he's stepping in it).
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