2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[theschnell]

Was weak hand today. Sold half my position at $334. Still a gain. Just need to have some dry powder in case this goes quite a bit lower. Not a prediction. I'm usually wrong on short term... But I was just too exposed to be comfortable. I will put all back in when I feel better. I realize I may miss some gains and I am ok with that.

 

[traxila]

Digging into it, Volvo is doing less than it at first appears.
(1) They are apparently going to continue making existing models of gasoline-only cars even after 2019; they've just stopped designing new models
(2) There are apparently a lot of "mild hybrids" in the post-2019 design queue.

That's... not as impressive as I initially thought. :-( Basically they're going all-PHEV, but very slowly.

Yeh I knew that was a bunch of smoke blowing. Wonder what percent will be actual EV - 1%?

 

[Richgoogol]

wassup with AMD and NVDA today? Why are they up so much?

 

[Doit]

Completely agree. The GS note appears to be a well-timed psychological play at what looks to be a technical-driven pullback while we are at the bottom of the 7 month trading channel and the lower BB. The trading channel that has formed from December-to-present looks to be very supportive of this price action, and if we return to the bottom of the channel then we should see a pull-back that remains in the 340-level followed by some sideways trading back to the 350 level over the next few weeks to establish a new support area if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable. Daily price action will of course overshoot these levels, making this a great time for those playing the discrepancies between the Daily Chart and the Monthly Chart formations (i.e. 335 today will look like a strong 340+ on the chart next month). Should all systems remain 'Go' we could (should?) be riding the bottom of the channel until the next push upwards to begin by mid-to-late July, which also conveniently could land at the next psychological and technical barrier of 400 (expect another GS downgrade to 150 if we reach 400 in October?). In the last 7 months we have had two 50-point moves followed by sideways trading for several weeks before continuing. If it takes most of the month of July to establish a new lower resistance level around the 340-350 level before the Model 3 deliveries are made then we will have had time for a test and retest (double bottom) this support level prior to the Semi unveil and perhaps some good TE news on the Q2 report. Personally I would like to see that Tesla's 'battery-shortage' last quarter was due in part to TE project demands (creating sufficient inventory for the Australia timeline commitment?).

It will be very interesting to observe the differences in this pullback to those of recent years because previous pullbacks did not include a base that was supported by a Yuuuge Tencent position. Many on this board have mentioned 'buying opportunities'........and this must look like a real TSLA buying opportunity for institutional investors and corporations that really want to back the big trucks up. Is GS trying to drive the price down for some of these clients?

Bought a few @335. Volume is huge, approaching 7 millions. It's more likely to go up than to go down from here, let's say 70% chance of up, 30% chance of down. Could be bouncing around 340-350 for a few days to a week or two if the "up" case; otherwise, could be down quickly.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Almost average daily volume traded in the first hour, what an incredible day.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Yeh I knew that was a bunch of smoke blowing. Wonder what percent will be actual EV - 1%?

I actually like Volvo's announcement, even though some are stretching to use it as a negative against Tesla. Symbolically, they're the first traditional automaker to acknowledge the ICE cars are being swept into the dust bin of history. On a practical level, though, it's such a small slow move that it won't hurt Tesla's sales at all. So, I like it on both levels.

 

[Doit]

Wow.. -$20 in a few hours.. at this rate we would be -$60 by end of day, $290 close. By next week we could be $0.. What are we supposed to do??

Sue Elon and elect Mark BS to represent us?

 

[neroden]

Well, I'm maintaining price discipline (since I really already have enough in TSLA) but if it goes under $320, I'm (probably) buying. I doubt that will happen. I rolled my one higher put option down and out; I shouldn't be accumulating unless there's a real steal, since I'm already over my target percentage of portfolio (yes, even after today's drop).

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Starting point for the short squeeze?

 

[traxila]

I actually like Volvo's announcement, even though some are stretching to use it as a negative against Tesla. Symbolically, they're the first traditional automaker to acknowledge the ICE cars are being swept into the dust bin of history. On a practical level, though, it's such a small slow move that it won't hurt Tesla's sales at all. So, I like it on both levels.

Even if they were 100% authentic, it is not any EV sales that would be hurt but rather ICE sales.
As far as being the first, no I have heard this many times, most recently from AUDI/VW supposedly getting in their dealers faces about moving EVs and getting with the future program. Very much in show me mode and have been for years.
If Tesla were to go bellyup today how many of these EVs would actually come to market?

 

[Reciprocity]

What I just realized as I put in stop loss orders is that I can set them at a point where it is impossible for me to lose money on this stock and I could not say that just 6 months ago. It is impossible for me to lose money on this stock and I have only been in around a year. I certainly do not plan on selling at all, but its nice to know that I can ride out this volatility. As much as the stock has went down recently it could go up just as fast. For example, what is going to happen in Q2 earnings when Tesla gives guidance for 2H 2017 that has the company delivering a total of 120k - 130k cars vs <77k last year. This would obliterate the idea that S/X are suffering from lower demand and would bolster the idea that model 3 will start contributing to the bottom line sooner then later. Lots of news coming over the next 60 days including the Semi and some mystery product as well as Q2 earnings.

 

[AlMc]

I took your advice and have monster buy order at 332. That heloc leverage will be paid back in no time baby!

Not advice

 

[BornToFly]

Lots of news coming over the next 60 days including the Semi and some mystery product as well as Q2 earnings.

The problem is Q2 earnings will be worse than originally thought because of lower S/X sales than Q1. I'm hoping I don't have to roll the Puts I sold into a date past Q2 earnings, because I'm afraid we are going to drop that week....

 

[jhm]

I've got my order in for $336. I love buying at a discount.

Next stop $370.


Edit, Oh, good. It went through.

 

[BornToFly]

Friday we were over 360. Since Friday, we have learned that Model 3 is two weeks ahead of schedule, and that they are still expecting a good ramp to 5,000/week by December. We also learned that they met guidance for Q2 and the first half of 2017, and they expect increased S/X sales for the rest of the year. Despite all the good news, the stock drops around 10%. Unbelievable how hard this stuff is to predict.....

 

[neroden]

Even if they were 100% authentic, it is not any EV sales that would be hurt but rather ICE sales.
As far as being the first, no I have heard this many times, most recently from AUDI/VW supposedly getting in their dealers faces about moving EVs and getting with the future program. Very much in show me mode and have been for years.
If Tesla were to go bellyup today how many of these EVs would actually come to market?

Well, I think Geely is serious (look at the London Taxi Company and their other subsidiaries). They're still slow moving though.

 

[baudwalk]

Bloomberg TV just now (Wed 11a ET) reporting a short interest of 22%, down from its recent high of 35%. I'll leave it to others more knowledgeable than I to interpret; just hanging on.

 

[neroden]

The problem is Q2 earnings will be worse than originally thought because of lower S/X sales than Q1.

Well, probably. There has been zero guidance on Powerwall/Powerpack sales (which have been happening).

I'm hoping I don't have to roll the Puts I sold into a date past Q2 earnings, because I'm afraid we are going to drop that week....

I just did that rollout; it was a solid reminder to me never to sell a put at a price where I might be unhappy buying the stock. If you can roll out and down to a price where you'd just buy stock anyway, you won't be worried about such a drop, you'll consider it a buying opportunity.

 

[neroden]

Bloomberg TV just now (Wed 11a ET) reporting a short interest of 22%, down from its recent high of 35%. I'll leave it to others more knowledgeable than I to interpret; just hanging on.

Is that the two-week-out-of-date official data, or one of the corporate guesstimates?

The June 15th official data is still showing 29 million shares short. High volumes means days to cover are down.

 

[erthquake]

I'm guessing GS will do a downward revision based on their "internal" expectation for Model 3 numbers for the year

When life is so ridiculous, it's true.