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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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GS as a counter party that provides hedge for Tesla is being hurt with SP between $327.5 and 600 something... Lower price works better for them, theoretically. Though I believe they've re-hedged the hedge, so probably don't care much...
And I think you're seeing connection where it doesn't exist.
Incompetence and short-sightedness of GS analyst is perfectly valid explanation, rather than conspiracy theory.

The GS analyst was a Maryland lacrosse player, then became an analyst. I grew up in Maryland and also played lacrosse. Literally the last people in the world I would ask for investment advice are lacrosse players from Maryland.

Now, if I wanted to chug beers with someone, that's another story.
 
The GS analyst was a Maryland lacrosse player, then became an analyst. I grew up in Maryland and also played lacrosse. Literally the last people in the world I would ask for investment advice are lacrosse players from Maryland.

Now, if I wanted to chug beers with someone, that's another story.

Okay, that's super funny but I thought perhaps a bit unfair. Until I realized you just dissed yourself as well. So we can assume that as a former Maryland lacrosse player your current career is as a bartender or professional drinker? I know you're not in investment banking or anything like that. :)
 
Tech stocks are up premarket, especially NVDA and TSLA. I'd like to pick up a bit more TSLA today but wondering when the low of the day will be. Will shorts attack early today? Or during the low volume lunch hours since an early attack may be futile today?
That 10 AM low has been really consistent for a while. Not advice.
 
Apparently AJ was out yesterday with a new note questioning Tesla future based on national pride in certain European country known for their automotive industry. He is flipping out of his mind: where the f... were they for all these years? Like for the last decade? Producing exceptional press releases for a succession of pipe dream cars with the stupid name that includes "e-tron", or blowing $2B in R&D on a complete flop that i3 is? So now they will *really* wake up, throw money at the (huge) problem they have, magically fix it and miraculously get back market share that was stolen right from under their snoring noses? OK, looks like he is running out of reasons to doubt the future of Tesla...

“While we are respectful of the ability for a new entrant to disrupt a 100-year-old industry, we only point out that the political sensitivity around a nation’s automobile industry far exceeds that of, say… its mobile phone industry,” he wrote. “According to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, one in seven jobs in Germany are ‘directly or indirectly’ related to the roughly 800,000 auto jobs at original equipment manufacturers and suppliers in that country.”
 
Apparently AJ was out yesterday with a new note questioning Tesla future based on national pride in certain European country known for their automotive industry. He is flipping out of his mind: where the f... were they for all these years? Like for the last decade? Producing exceptional press releases for a succession of pipe dream cars with the stupid name that includes "e-tron", or blowing $2B in R&D on a complete flop that i3 is? So now they will *really* wake up, throw money at the (huge) problem they have, magically fix it and miraculously get back market share that was stolen right from under their snoring noses? OK, looks like he is running out of reasons to doubt the future of Tesla...
Nice to see Jonas is still sticking his head in the sand. His 305 PT is still based on 2k Model 3 in 2017, 80k in 2018, and zero TE and SCTY contribution.

Sometime soon, he's going to have to concede that its not going to look like that.
 
Apparently AJ was out yesterday with a new note questioning Tesla future based on national pride in certain European country known for their automotive industry. He is flipping out of his mind: where the f... were they for all these years? Like for the last decade? Producing exceptional press releases for a succession of pipe dream cars with the stupid name that includes "e-tron", or blowing $2B in R&D on a complete flop that i3 is? So now they will *really* wake up, throw money at the (huge) problem they have, magically fix it and miraculously get back market share that was stolen right from under their snoring noses? OK, looks like he is running out of reasons to doubt the future of Tesla...
AJ is grasping at straws, Germany's EV demand may not be as high as California mainly because the autobahn and the top speed limit on many EVs, but in no mean is that a crippling blow to demand, plenty of people drive at "normal" speed on the autobahn. Germany is no China.

China, OTOH is a whole different beast. I was just counting how many international corp giants have tried to enter China and ultimately defeated by locals, Google, Facebook, Apple, Uber. Ironically, Yahoo, who had a stake in Alibaba but remained hands-off, profitted from that nicely. Culturally there may be a huge barrier to enter China. Hopefully Tencent will help with that, but who knows, maybe they want to eventually be the local that learns from Tesla and then take over, IIRC they partnered with Apple before on WeChat. Investing in 5% of Tesla and potentially getting 100% of Tesla's business in China would be a pretty profitable investment.
 
Nice to see Jonas is still sticking his head in the sand. His 305 PT is still based on 2k Model 3 in 2017, 80k in 2018, and zero TE and SCTY contribution.

Sometime soon, he's going to have to concede that its not going to look like that.
I guess you could make a case for keeping the horrible Model 3 stats until you actually see the cars rolling out (though I'd argue an analyst should be more forward-thinking than that), but the zero TE is inexcusable at this point.

It's already >0 and separately broken out in the ER, with margins and everything. Plus there's plenty of public data out there showing big projects that are well in excess of 0. Can't a competent analyst throw some GM numbers together, extrapolate at least a conservative ramp with increasing margins (as with every Tesla product that scales up) and assign a value? Even if he thinks the market will be glutted in 5 years and margins go close to 0 over time (not my view, but it is a view out there), he needs to assign some value to the period where Tesla is the price leader and volume manufacturer. I don't get it. There's market share to be had and Tesla is going to get a nice chunk.

I also don't think he should just throw his hands in the air and declare solar to be a 0, particularly with the solar roof launch. That's just lazy. I really don't understand why he gets any mentions as a superstar analyst. He was out in front on one (fairly obvious to most) issue - autonomous car sharing. That's about the extent of it.
 
Apparently AJ was out yesterday with a new note questioning Tesla future based on national pride in certain European country known for their automotive industry. He is flipping out of his mind: where the f... were they for all these years? Like for the last decade? Producing exceptional press releases for a succession of pipe dream cars with the stupid name that includes "e-tron", or blowing $2B in R&D on a complete flop that i3 is? So now they will *really* wake up, throw money at the (huge) problem they have, magically fix it and miraculously get back market share that was stolen right from under their snoring noses? OK, looks like he is running out of reasons to doubt the future of Tesla...

I didnt read the article yet, but I think what he might be alluding to is that Germany the government is going to allow the auto industry to just fail. I think many of assume that these companies will be allowed to just crumble under their own weight, but as we saw here in the US in 2008, the government can step in and prop them up. To me its not a matter of it there will be competition, its when and what form will it take. I like to use the Android vs IPhone argument. Iphone is monolithic and high margin and has a built in fan base that is extremely loyal. Android is fragmented, some phones are as good as iphones but much lower margins and quality issues like self immolating batteries. I see Tesla continuing to stay up market with their products. I dont see them ever making a no frills budget oriented car, just like Apple will never make a no frills budget oriented phone. Tesla's master plan is to create demand on such a level that other autos must respond and they seem to be doing a pretty good job at the first part of that plan. Tesla believes that they can stay 2 steps ahead of the competition and i agree. Even if the German government does step in to save the German auto industry at some point the amount of time it takes to ramp all this technology gives Tesla an almost insurmountable lead. Its not a factor of how much money you can throw it, as these things take time. Certainly they could build multiple batter factories at the same time or hope for dozens of parts supplier to do the same, but hope is not really a business plan I would want to invest in. Until I see it, and it should be obvious to those of us following, im not buying the notion of 2020 Tesla killers. I see a hundred android phones coming and some will have some nice features, but most will have razor thing margins and will be mundane and fugly like the Bolt, which would be a great car if it cost $20k. In 25 years, I see Tesla with 30%+ of the global car market and 90% of the global car market profits. Ill take that any day and twice on Sunday.
 
This is what the stock price could look like if the action mirrors the previous five years at quarter end:

Date: PPS:
2017-09-30 $ 390.27
2017-12-31 $ 360.02
2018-03-31 $ 323.75
2018-06-30 $ 390.08
2018-09-30 $ 451.65
2018-12-31 $ 564.97
2019-03-31 $ 725.54
2019-06-30 $ 885.90
2019-09-30 $1,185.47
2019-12-31 $ 944.98
2020-03-31 $1,277.91
2020-06-30 $1,599.82
2020-09-30 $1,849.42
2020-12-31 $1,885.89
2021-03-31 $1,584.86
2021-06-30 $2,551.89
2021-09-30 $2,223.03
2021-12-31 $ 963.74
2022-03-31 $1,147.59
2022-06-30 $1,435.47
2022-09-30 $2,139.86
2022-12-31 $3,693.33

Price per share assumes 50% annual Rev growth, 5% annual dilution, and uses discounted historic multiples of Rev and GP to project likely lognormal distribution of future stock pps, with the percentile mirroring the previous ~5 years. This is just for fun, not worthwhile in any way except to show one of the nearly infinite number of possible outcomes.
 
That's a lot of volume we are seeing for this time of the day.

All this market manipulation is only going to hold off for so long. If TSLA closes green today, the panic among the short crowd will soon ensue. Already, I am smelling fear with all of the bogus FUD articles out there.
when there's THIS much coordinated FUD, and the price STILL goes up, it's obvious that the market is numb to the BS and yes, they gotta cover.

I've been convinced a huge, historic type squeeze has to happen here for a while now.
 
That's a lot of volume we are seeing for this time of the day.

All this market manipulation is only going to hold off for so long. If TSLA closes green today, the panic among the short crowd will soon ensue. Already, I am smelling fear with all of the bogus FUD articles out there.
It's been going on for years and doesn't show any signs of stopping. It won't stop until whomever is backing it runs out of money.
 
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