2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[EnzoXYZ]

Ah. Short term call plays, very tricky.

See, I bought 200 shares of stock which I intend to hold long-term: I'm an accumulator of TSLA and will be until at least 2019, so it's a question of "accumulate" or "wait to accumulate". (I also sold some $400 puts but they don't expire until November; we'll see how they turn out, but I'm actually hoping to get assigned.) So basically I just missed out on buying the same amont of stock for $6000 less. I should clarify that this purchase increased my overall position by less than 3%, and all my other lots are still deeply "in the green".

I don't particularly regret it -- I'm sleeping better having a slightly larger position going into next year. But I do have to remember in future that if part of my brain is saying "No, really, this feels like a local top, you'll probably have a better buying opportunity next week", that part is probably right. It was saying this when I bought at $279 in late 2014 out of FOMO, too, so it's sent the right signal twice, but I listened to a different part of my brain. Lesson for the future. It also said this at the last $380 top and I got that one right, buying at the bottom of the next dip.

Wow another big fish with over ~7K shares (my math isn't my strong subject)? Seems to be some big time holders on TMC.

I'm still shy of 1K.

 

[neroden]

Cool chart. Lot's of similar looking patterns. I think Fidelity is finishing unloading the last of their convertibles (IIRC there were still around 50-60k sitting around based on the 10Q data).

I don't quite understand what you're suggesting is going on with the convertibles. Could you explain?

 

[zdriver]

Wow another big fish with over ~7K shares (my math isn't my strong subject)? Seems to be some big time holders on TMC.

I'm still shy of 1K.

Bigger fish I hear basically retired after 2013...

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Bigger fish I hear basically retired after 2013...

Yeah how lucky! Wonder where those big bears are from 2013. Lol.

 

[AlMc]

Bigger fish I hear basically retired after 2013...

Yeah how lucky! Wonder where those big bears are from 2013. Lol.

Some are still here (you know who you are) and feel TSLA still represents a good investment in a worthy company/mission.

I hope I am a contrarian indicator so I sold some of the $350 puts I bought yesterday and bought some $330s with the gains. Hope they go to '0' and that my *bet* has the usual short term effect on TSLA SP...and reverses the trend.

 

[bdy0627]

Watching all these shorts flee when the stock decides to reverse is going to be a beautiful thing!

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Almost hitting my buying price of $350. Buying 20 shares.

Next buy if it gets to $330 at 30 shares then 50 shares at $310.

Sold 20 and 30 shares at $360 and $380 already.

These are my trading shares.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Some are still here (you know who you are) and feel TSLA still represents a good investment in a worthy company/mission.

I hope I am a contrarian indicator so I sold some of the $350 puts I bought yesterday and bought some $330s with the gains. Hope they go to '0' and that my *bet* has the usual short term effect on TSLA SP...and reverses the trend.

Wow, buying $350 weekly puts was in retrospect an excellent move. How did you pick the strike and what made you decide to buy puts?

 

[Rockster]

The ITC just ruled in favor of Suniva. Import panel tariffs in the $0.23 to $0.48/W range are expected. I wonder how this will impact TSLA? I know that the NY plant is making some Solar City panels but I think that a significant portion of Solar City's panels are still imports. I hope I'm wrong, however, for a variety of reasons. It would be nice if Tesla was immune from this insanity.

 

[AlMc]

Wow, buying $350 weekly puts was in retrospect an excellent move. How did you pick the strike and what made you decide to buy puts?

I bought 80 of those puts yesterday because I wanted protection for the stock. I was actually hoping they would go to '0' but, unfortunately they did not. (Aside: I have a sizable position in AAPL as well and bought a similar amount of APPL puts)

During the day I have sold 55 of those and bought only 30 of the $330s.

I have been trying to avoid ST options as I have gotten burned on those in 2017 more than I have profited.

Guess this goes back to my investing style. Mostly luck.

Hope we are all lucky next week with a rebound.

Potential problem: EM's star may get tarnished with the SCTY decision and the FUD that will follow.

 

[Richgoogol]

Someone please enlighten me what's going on with the drop today? I know Dark pool w/e is doing their blah blah blah, but why? What's the causation? I mean 2% or even 3% is acceptable, but 4%? I know there used to have >10% drops but this is 2017. >4% is hard to come by these days..and normally it means business.

 

[BornToFly]

Did not expect this drop today. I would have earned an additional 14k on the 2019 putts I sold this morning if I had waited until the afternoon. But it was holding steady on the open, and I thought the slide for the week was done. Paper loses for the day between shares and options over $130k. Of course, none of that matters if the SP goes back up in the future. Not selling anything unless the narrative changes, and the future looks brighter than ever for Tesla.

 

[aznt1217]

Someone please enlighten me what's going on with the drop today? I know Dark pool w/e is doing their blah blah blah, but why? What's the causation? I mean 2% or even 3% is acceptable, but 4%? I know there used to have >10% drops but this is 2017. >4% is hard to come by these days..and normally it means business.

Chances are it was an overreaction to the SolarCity settlement.

 

[gene]

Some are still here (you know who you are) and feel TSLA still represents a good investment in a worthy company/mission.

I am still here. Buying TSLA since 2012.

 

[bdy0627]

I don't think anyone saw this big of a drop coming today. After the previous several days? I actually expected a modest bounce. Each drop this week except for the spinning top type candle on Wed has been larger. So, it's obviously oversold now but I said that yesterday. I don't know the exact number but it looks like any further substantial drop breaks the bottom of the range. That can't be good. Any good reason to expect this to continue on Monday? Here's hoping Jewish traders want to buy some TSLA when they return.

 

[BornToFly]

Someone please enlighten me what's going on with the drop today? I know Dark pool w/e is doing their blah blah blah, but why? What's the causation? I mean 2% or even 3% is acceptable, but 4%? I know there used to have >10% drops but this is 2017. >4% is hard to come by these days..and normally it means business.

My guess is that a lot of "smart" shorts playing the volatility got back in the last two days, which means a lot of selling pressure. They will probably take their quick profits and get out soon, and the SP will rise again, burning the "dumber" shorts....

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I sold one Nov $300 put towards end of the day. I had to take advantage of this drop somehow and that seemed reasonably safe way. What makes it particularly attractive, I'm finally in the mindset that if Tesla goes back to $300, I'm ready to re-leverage to the hilt...

 

[neroden]

Wow another big fish with over ~7K shares (my math isn't my strong subject)? Seems to be some big time holders on TMC.

There are some pretty big holders here (many who bought in really early and gained a lot on the 10x runup in 2013).

But the first thing to understand about inequality in today's economy -- something most people don't understand -- is that this number of shares doesn't even make me a big fish. It won't get me invited to the "big investors only" meeting or presentation; it won't get me a callback after the earnings call. Tesla doesn't treat M&T Bank as a major investor and they have 10195 shares. I'm pretty sure there are a few people with over 40,000 shares on this forum alone, and I think they mostly probably still aren't big fish.

There are people (perhaps *not* on this forum) with 200,000 shares -- and they probably are at the bottom end of "big fish". From the NASDAQ list, the 50th largest "institutional holder" (financial institutions only) has 209,753 shares, while the 100th largest has 48,930; this is done by custodian, however. (So Ron Baron's funds are included under State Street -- just checked this -- while my stocks which aren't in the safety deposit box are probably included under my broker.) It doesn't seem to include Tencent's position (though I'm not sure whether/where their position is custodied), so there are likely to be major investors not on that list. I'm pretty sure that Tesla IR can't, psychologically, think of much more than a hundred people (including representatives of institutions and funds) as big fish -- probably fewer than that.

 

[esk8mw]

Bought some Oct 6 360 calls at the close. Hoping to play the Q3 deliveries (and hoping the Q3 deliveries don't bump the SP from 330 to 340 or something, ha).

WARNING: I'm wrong on short term like 90% of the time. Consider buying puts.

 

[bdy0627]

Chances are it was an overreaction to the SolarCity settlement.

If that was the case then wouldn't you expect a cliff drop type day? It was a pretty consistent day of selling.