2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[22522]

An amusing and irrelevent game here tonight, even my prodigal son alketi is caught up in the irrelevancy. The only thing that matters is Tesla net margins at scale. Get in your head boys.

Tesla stock price in the future depends on goodwill at scale, if you want to make money relative to today's stock price.

I leave my money in because I like what they are doing with it, and am not the only one.

Since you like to be smart, please read Henry Ford's 1926 classic, Today and Tomorrow. It will explain carts and horses and how society grants life to companies that serve society efficiently.

The biggest threat to Tesla's future is short term margin metrics that confuse Elon, and others, about what is important.

Sustainable transport relies on getting EVs in garages of people who can not afford to live close to work, or purchase a 200 mile range EV, if the effective first cost is over $30K. Production mix needs to shift to get the people, who will not otherwise get an EV, the full tax credit - Before that full tax credit ends.

Getting the Model 3 qualified for sale in other markets, to push the credit expiration threshold cross into second quarter of next year, would be the smart thing to do based on the material they have on hand.

Goodwill at scale leads Valuation. Buy the stock if you like what they are doing. Sell it if you don't.

 

[JRP3]

Where Tesla is on the scale of a few weeks from their ideal schedule isn't important.

In the short term it is.

The only important question is what margin they can get with a 6k$ battery that ICE's don't have (that battery giving them inferior range and refuel metrics in addition to expense).

Wrong thread for that concern. There is a Long Term thread if that's your focus.

 

[Navin]

Last year’s report came out on a Sunday around 12pm ET I believe
Tesla sets record for vehicle deliveries and production in Q3

 

[JRP3]

No one here willing to notice that ... I am smarter than you?

No supporting evidence for that claim. In fact quite the opposite.

 

[austinEV]

5YJ3E1EA9HF001134 is still the highest VIN registered

 

[Mike Smith]

Last year’s report came out on a Sunday around 12pm ET I believe
Tesla sets record for vehicle deliveries and production in Q3

It's the date that matters, not the day. It takes time to tally the deliveries and prepare a release. I don't think it's ever been before the 2nd, which is Monday.

 

[schonelucht]

5YJ3E1EA9HF001134 is still the highest VIN registered

Cup is half full. In the last days we had new sightings in the 3xx, 4xx and 5xx range. Production and deliveries are certainly ongoing. Let's see when the first non-employees are invited to configure!

 

[McMuggets]

An amusing and irrelevent game here tonight, even my prodigal son alketi is caught up in the irrelevancy. The only thing that matters is Tesla net margins at scale. Get in your head boys.

First things first... this being a short-term trading oriented thread, we can see how the market can illogically assign massive price movements based on an "irrelevant" delivery number. Thus, the number is actually relevant for those on here playing options.

Longer term, net margins are definitely important. This is especially true at the scale that Tesla is going to produce Model 3 at. Elon's very obvious optimism on Model 3 margins during the last conference call should give the heavily invested a lot of calm. Let's say he's overly optimistic, I would take half of his margin projections and call that a victory even. On a go-forward basis, we have rising net margins on Model S/X and a Model 3 that is about to ramp big time with net margins following along. Not to mention the Tesla Energy product where margin on batteries is likely growing as well. This is likely why the stock price seems to be stuck well over $300/share, much to the chagrin of the short sellers who are already underwater. Any indication that they are indeed ramping up production as promised = stock price over $400 before end of this year.

 

[austinEV]

Ok, just threw some resources at this. I gave carfax some money to run a report on some cars just to see if maybe it showed the date the VIN was assigned and or completed. There doesn't seem to be a way to find out if they have reports. I spot checked 500, 501, 1134-- no reports. But when you do get a hit-- you just spent money. So 100 has a hit. Excerpt:

I was checking from known sighted VIN's on M3OC. Not sure how useful this would be even if we had it for every car.

One owner and the car should be in great shape if anyone is curious

 

[McMuggets]

Ok, just threw some resources at this. I gave carfax some money to run a report on some cars just to see if maybe it showed the date the VIN was assigned and or completed. There doesn't seem to be a way to find out if they have reports. I spot checked 500, 501, 1134-- no reports. But when you do get a hit-- you just spent money. So 100 has a hit. Excerpt:

View attachment 251124

I was checking from known sighted VIN's on M3OC. Not sure how useful this would be even if we had it for every car.

One owner and the car should be in great shape if anyone is curious

I think that #521 was spotted in the wild. Happen to check this one? Thanks for the research!

 

[bdy0627]

Listen -- I get you people have various theories that are socially accepted, and most of the time you try to write things that get upvotes from each other. I'm here to see why Tesla might be a bad investment (because it better not be -- I have half my net worth in it). So I notice things like the fact that Alketi\Alchete has a high IQ that none of you seem to notice. I notice that you play along with feeble games like 'what is the m3 delivery count this quarter?' or 'what is the technical crayon drawing that connects various random lines?'. So for what it's worth, I only want to hear commentary on long-term Tesla margin analysis because that's what matters. Most of you have no idea what matters.

There are lots of threads here. I believe this is the wrong thread to discuss what you are interested in. This is the Market Action thread. When I come here, I DO want to know about short term events and short term data, as well as the recent movement of the stock. I'm trying to make an educated guess about what the stock may do in the short term, and I do some trading based upon that. It's probably somewhat insane to even try to do that but that's what this thread is for. When I want to discuss longterm fundamentals of Tesla, I go to that thread. I rarely go there because I have very little concern at this point about Tesla's longterm fundamentals. But I think that's where you should be posting given your focus.

 

[bdy0627]

You are in the wrong thread, dude. If you are willing to educate the less smart on Tesla net margins at scale, there's a thread for that.

BTW, no one is claiming that TSLA price two years from now depends on how many M3 vins they registered with NHTSA today. But my Oct 6th $350 calls want to know.

Exactly! That discussion totally belongs in a different thread. It makes no sense to come here and berate people who are trying to discuss things they believe are pertinent to the short term stock movement simply because they aren't focusing on the long term reasons Tesla may or may not dominate.

 

[neroden]

No one here willing to notice that Alketi or I am smarter than you? Heh. Humans are funny.

I'll give you some free advice, since you said that you were looking for risk factors for Tesla stock. As do I, as should every investor.

These are the most problematic:
-- service center ramp-up
-- excessive hostility to modders and indepedent service shops who want information
-- very sloppy attitude towards legal matters

I'm clearly smarter than you, though ;-), because I already knew this and you're asking around to find out risk factors. ;-)

 

[austinEV]

I think that #521 was spotted in the wild. Happen to check this one? Thanks for the research!

No hit. I have 2 left so use wisely TMC

 

[Fallenone]

No hit. I have 2 left so use wisely TMC

90？It's a low vin but just delivered two days ago.

 

[Alketi]

Ok, just threw some resources at this. I gave carfax some money to run a report on some cars just to see if maybe it showed the date the VIN was assigned and or completed. There doesn't seem to be a way to find out if they have reports. I spot checked 500, 501, 1134-- no reports.

Nicely done. Depending on the lag, that would imply that only a few hundred are currently registered -- which would translate to Q3 deliveries.

I think that as some speculated, that 9*26 Model 3 picture was probably a hint about their full assembly line.

 

[vgrinshpun]

No hit. I have 2 left so use wisely TMC

It looks like there is much more economical way to search for the VIN/Title information. There is a national data base - National Motor Vehicle Title Information System that collects and maintains VIN data. NMVIS web site includes links for seven providers that facilitate access and provide reports. One of the providers I checked - VinAudit charges $29.99 for 10 reports. Search is free;once it finds a VIN that has records in NMVTIS, you have an option to purchase the report

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It looks like there is much more economical way to search for the VIN/Title information. There is a national data base - National Motor Vehicle Title Information System that collects and maintains VIN data. NMVTIS web site includes links for seven providers that facilitate access and provide reports. One of the providers I checked - VinAudit charges $29.99 for 10 reports. Search is free;once it finds a VIN that has records in NMVTIS, you have an option to purchase the report

Note that not all states yet send data to NMVTIS.

National Motor Vehicle Title Information System: For States

 

[Waiting4M3]

Would it appropriate to move the VIN discussions to the Highest production VIN in the wild thread?
Now that the quarter delivery # will come out soon, next week will be busy for this thread for its regularly scheduled function, I imagine. Plus with the "contribution" from Aces it's taking longer to sort through the thread.

 

[Snapdragon III]

Does anyone have a link to the "leaked" memo that came out a while back about the timing of setting up the automated Model 3 pack production at the Gigafactory? I seem to remember that it had very specific times and rates at which they could hand build the packs, and I would like to look at it again to see if it might have any relevance to current production speculation. I was unable to find it.