2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[ValueAnalyst]

Geiz... it's like telling us geez, guys, go play outside, no worries here.

G would be a 9 upside down... 6 upside down is q... Q... QEIZ... KEYS... as in, grab the keys, we're going for a ride.

 

[zdriver]

That was a very interesting "bounce" off S2... By the "feel" of the price action on the way to the low of the day, I was completely expecting it to be flushed all the way to a new low for the day, but... it didn't. Even with the incredibly high volume minute that based on tick charts was primarily floods of 100 share sell orders, it couldn't make a new low and quickly bounced back above S2. There appears to be a very large bid sitting just below $349-350...

 

[Intl Professor]

How many holding out for dual motors?

I am, along with air suspension, and have urged my son to do so too with our other reservation.

 

[generalenthu]

We are on pg 1134. is that a sign?

 

[Starno]

I'm sure Elon will clear things up about the M3 production on the ER call.

 

[Todd Burch]

I keep seeing this sentiment, but really: Tesla/SpaceX have ~39,000 employees, and any of them who've ordered the configurations currently available will get them before the general public. Do we really believe T/S employees have only ordered ~1000 of these cars?

Actually, when you think about it, it's amazing that at least 1 out of every 39 employees is buying that car. That alone sounds high to me. Remember, an overwhelming majority of those employees are not high-wage earners. That would be like 1 out of every 39 employees at Mercedes buying a C-class or similar priced car at roughly the same time. That's a lot.

 

[bdy0627]

G would be a 9 upside down... 6 upside down is q... Q... QEIZ... KEYS... as in, grab the keys, we're going for a ride.

Is this fundamental analysis or technical?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Is this fundamental analysis or technical?

Honestly at this point... it's not about analysis. This is the moment after you train, train, train, train, train, and train, suffer through hundreds of 5 am practices, eat healthy, go to bed early every Friday night, taper for a month, and now it's the half hour before the race. Now it's just about prayers.

 

[FredTMC]

ER on Nov 1st is a week earlier than expected

Hmmm

Street will be looking for clarity on Model 3 bottleneck resolutions

For Model 3 GUIDANCE:

Not sure he'll give actual numbers of production cars expected by EOY

Elon WILL provide expected M3 production rate at end of 2017.
Unclear what it'll be. Seems 5k/week is out of reach

 

[koolkool]

Without fail, the moment the stock peeks above 360, something stupid happens.

 

[bdy0627]

ER on Nov 1st is a week earlier than expected

Hmmm

Street will be looking for clarity on Model 3 bottleneck resolutions

For Model 3 GUIDANCE:

Not sure he'll give actual numbers of production cars expected by EOY

Elon WILL provide expected M3 production rate at end of 2017.
Unclear what it'll be. Seems 5k/week is out of reach

Don't be surprised if clarity is not provided. It's very possible he may indicate that he remains optimistic that they could reach 5k/week by end of year, especially if there is ANY chance of it. Since there is still likely uncertainty about where the ramp will be at that point, there may actually be a very very slight chance. EM prefers to guide optimistically and I don't see that changing for this. I would be surprised to get detailed clarity on the ramp at the ER.

 

[dmckinstry]

Geiz... it's like telling us geez, guys, go play outside, no worries here.

That's my interpretation also.

 

[Navin]

If anyone of the hardcore technical traders are interested in starting a WhatsApp group to post setups and trading ideas. Pls PM me.

 

[FredTMC]

Don't be surprised if clarity is not provided. It's very possible he may indicate that he remains optimistic that they could reach 5k/week by end of year, especially if there is ANY chance of it. Since there is still likely uncertainty about where the ramp will be at that point, there may actually be a very very slight chance. EM prefers to guide optimistically and I don't see that changing for this. I would be surprised to get detailed clarity on the ramp at the ER.

I think we've got similar views on Model 3 guidance for 2017:

DON'T expect guidance on actual amount of cars produced thru EOY

Elon WILL likely address "production rate per week" at EOY

 

[Navin]

 

[sunhelm]

G would be a 9 upside down... 6 upside down is q... Q... QEIZ... KEYS... as in, grab the keys, we're going for a ride.

Or 6 is a small letter g. Anyway, it does not matter, we are still in 1134! Let's keep going!

Edit: generalenthu beat me to it

 

[hobbes]

I'm not going to get too hyped up on it, but that, along with what seems to be an increase in sightings gives me some hope that the bottlenecks are starting to ease. Unfortunately, it's probably too late to get a true customer delivery this month. But maybe we can get a true customer configuration?

One thing we have to keep in mind is that the rate of sightings is proportionate to the total number of delivered 3s, not to the rate of deliveries. Just saying..

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I keep seeing this sentiment, but really: Tesla/SpaceX have ~39,000 employees, and any of them who've ordered the configurations currently available will get them before the general public. Do we really believe T/S employees have only ordered ~1000 of these cars?

It T/S employees were the regular part of the world with the same ratio of orders (455K orders out of 7.5B people), Tesla would have 2.36 cars ordered by employees. So 1000 cars would be 400X+ factor, just saying... I otherwise have no strong opinion how many will be ordered by employees...

 

[TradingInvest]

View attachment 254938

That's Elon's writing style.

It seems to me two groups of people are involved in this kind of lawsuit campaign:

The bloodsucking group: lawyers, plaintiffs, news reporters, stock shorts, oil interests... They know what they are doing, but they will do it anyway - try to suck blood. They don't lose much if they lose the case.

The braindead group: they don't know what they are doing, and don't care, if they can get some clicks, not bad.

The result: after repeated campaign, Tesla's image got tarnished. This is a big deal in the automotive industry.

I still think shorts are behind most of these moves. They have too much money on the line.

Next I guess the worker Union will come out and do something, I suspect they are playing the stock too, either a big short is paying them to hurt Tesla, or they directly have a short position.

 

[racer26]

That's Elon's writing style.

It seems to me two groups of people are involved in this kind of lawsuit campaign:

The bloodsucking group: lawyers, plaintiffs, news reporters, stock shorts, oil interests... They know what they are doing, but they will do it anyway - try to suck blood. They don't lose much if they lose the case.

The braindead group: they don't know what they are doing, and don't care, if they can get some clicks, not bad.

The result: after repeated campaign, Tesla's image got tarnished. This is a big deal in the automotive industry.

I still think shorts are behind most of these moves. They have too much money on the line.

Next I guess the worker Union will come out and do something, I suspect they are playing the stock too, either a big short is paying them to hurt Tesla, or they directly have a short position.

I have to imagine its hard for someone like Elon, so dedicated to making the world a better place, to see so many people railing against his success, particularly those doing so in an effort to prop up dying industries that actively harm the world. I think if I were in his shoes, I'd find that really disheartening.