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2020 Price Drop? [Speculation]

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The $35K SR is really a very practical car for many people. While it’s nice to have the long range battery most people really don’t need it. Nor do they “need” autopilot or FSD. My friend bought the SR a few months ago and is thrilled with the car. He paid $35K for it and got back $3,750 federal, $2,500 CA and $1,000 from Edison. That brought the effective purchase price of the car before tax and delivery to under $28K. And he got 5,000 free bonus miles.

There is no way he could have bought a Honda Accord or Toyota Camry for any less than that (other than a very stripped down model maybe), and the overall cost of gas and maintenance over five years would easily exceed that of the Tesla. So while we may not talk about the $35K model here very much, it is a very real option for people looking to meet a certain price point but wanting to get into a Tesla EV.

This is really no different than any other auto manufacturer. I could buy a Toyota Corolla for under $20K, but I could easily spend over $50K for a higher end Toyota vehicle. They have price points to meet a variety of needs. I don’t see how Tesla is any different here, other than maybe not serving the $20K and under market.

Personal priorities and spending habits are personal. But numbers are numbers.

A completely stripped out Tesla can be cheaper than a decked out Accord or Camry (barely). But the exceptions do not prove the rule.

The overall average sales price of Teslas for the last Qs are betwen 50-60k USD, already weighted towards the Model 3 at 5:1 ratio.

The average Accord, Camry, or even the average of the Honda Toyota lineup does not approach that number. Objectively, Tesla plays at a different ball class than these main street manufacturers
 
Every time the Federal tax incentive gets cut, so does the price of the Model 3.

Is the Vegas odds favorite an $1,875 price cut come Jan 2020?

We took delivery of P3D+ in August and are scheduled to take delivery of a P3D- in late December. I'm hoping part the 7 day return period falls after the new year just in case there is a significant price drop.

Have your thoughts on Tesla cutting prices on January 1 changed any now that they just increased prices by $500.

Tesla Change Tracker on Twitter
Tesla Change Tracker on Twitter
 
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Current average new car sold price is 38k*. excluding incentives.

The CHEAPEST Tesla is 39k.

That is the cheapest trim, constituting <20% of sales** of the cheapest model Tesla, which itself represents 40% of all Tesla models produced.***

So fewer than 10% of all Teslas on the road are the cheapest variant. And they still cost more than the average new car price.

There's no way you can spin the Tesla lineup today as anything but a rich persons marque.



*KBB Nov 2019 analysis
**Tesla owner spreadsheet, 5000+ data points
***Tesla IR reports
Actually, the cheapest Tesla is 35k. 3k less than the average new car (if you're information is correct). Factor in the savings in maintenance and it's even more affordable. Then factor in the savings from not having to buy gas and it's even MORE affordable.
 
I also ordered an SR. $35k minus almost $5k from gov incentives ( 1875 fed, 2000 ca, 800 pg&e) comes down to around $30k.

If you remove gas and general maintenance, the car will cost you let's say around $25k or perhaps even less.

I think that, sure I could get a Civic for $20k, but for not that much more money, I'll get so much more of a car and every drive will be so much more pleasant.

It's also cool to know that I can always add autopilot or upgrade the car to SR+ if I change my mind later on.



.... But I won't even get the car in time probably because California and will end up getting a Civic :mad::(:mad::(
 
Actually, the cheapest Tesla is 35k. 3k less than the average new car (if you're information is correct). Factor in the savings in maintenance and it's even more affordable. Then factor in the savings from not having to buy gas and it's even MORE affordable.
Maintenance is the exaggerated thing in these arguments. The most common combustion-specific servicing is oil change, and today's intervals are 10-20k miles/annual. Air filter is a $20, 10-second replacement. Rest of the stuff like spark plugs, timing belts, transmission fluids, are 50k to 100k to never.

Many people already sell their car before it gets to that age.

Anybody who's owned a late model combustion car should honesty assess how much they actually spent on servicing drivetrain stuff.
 
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I just got into a "discussion" with some co workers today about this topic actually. We were talking about the cybertruck (we all think it looks ridiculous), and I said something like "I think that the cybertruck will likely be bought by rich californians in california (note, we are all in california while having this discussion), and he replied, "oh you mean like all teslas?".

Then we proceeded to get into an argument about whether I (and /or most tesla owners ) are "Affluent". He was talking about the price of a new tesla and saying most people cant afford that, and I kept saying "replace the word "tesla" with "car" and you will be more correct there. He also kept saying that "if you ask people in the middle of the country what a rich person car brand is, they would say tesla" and I replied "and BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, Audi, Porsche".

Then he started in on "people without homes dont own teslas, and no one outside of california buys those cars" and I said "its true that california sells a large percentage of them, but they are bought by people all over the country" . he actually said "Like WHERE???" as if no one in any state but california had bought a tesla. He then grudgingly admitted "I am sure a "couple" of people buy teslas in other states".

Then he started in on the fact that I was "affluent" because I had a house, and could afford to drive a tesla and my wife has a BMW". I told him, I think we have a different definition of "affluent". He went back to the "most people cant afford new teslas" and I said "most people cant afford new CARS, and the cost of the average new car is the price of the base model tesla". Then he says "well, yours is like 100k right? (I have a model 3P purchased last december). I said, no, it was 69k+ taxes and fees., he said " well thats close enough, its almost 100k". I said "I got 12k in rebates and credits off the price, so it was like 66k all in after everything, thats not "almost 100k". Its not cheap, but now we are talking about the highest trim model 3... the base model is 35,400 before taxes and fees, which is the price of a nice camry or accord.

I also told him that "I choose to spend money that I dont spend on other things, on the cars I drive... I dont take vacations, I almost never eat out, and I my "nice house" (which is admittedly a nice house) is a 40 mile commute each way away from work, and I commute an hour and 15 minutes each way to afford it". Im in southern california, but the above description applies to a ton of people in northern california too.

He then goes on "people in my apartment complex, there are no teslas, but plenty of BMWs, mercedes.. people in apartments cant own tesla, its a rich homeowners car".... I said "yes they do... I wouldnt, personally, as home charging is one of the best things about owing the car, but people absolutely do buy this car and use superchargers etc"

This is a younger person too.. mid 20s (im in my 50s). There is so much misinformation about tesla, and tesla owners.


Sorry for the rant, it was a frustrating conversation that I ended up not being able to get out of.

Think I would mostly agree with your buddy. If you own a house in SoCal AND have purchased cars that are either new or almost new, you are very affluent and certainly upper class (like every single person on this forum). When you're surrounded by nothing but upper class people, you can easily lose sight of how everyone else lives.
 
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This happened last year as well. AWD and Mid Range saw a bunch of price changes in November and December. Then in January when demand slowed to a crawl, Tesla slashed prices.

I agree. With Tesla prices generally trending down, I think it's more likely than not to see lower prices next year. I think there is still room for them to move down further in order to get to a fatter range of potential customers. That seems to be where that $35k price point came from. I could definitely see a standard plus hitting close to 35k, with 45k for DM and low 50's for performance. After that though, any cost decreases might be kept as profit, while they attempt to build an even cheaper vehicle to hit at an under $30k price.

There is also the possibility of keeping prices pretty much where they are and just shifting resources to produce more Model Y. I think overall though, the goal is to be continually selling more cars and not just selling the same amount of cars with different vehicles. If they want to continue to sell more vehicles overall, I think the price point still needs to come down a little more.
 
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Think I would mostly agree with your buddy. If you own a house in SoCal AND have purchased cars that are either new or almost new, you are very affluent and certainly upper class (like every single person on this forum). When you're surrounded by nothing but upper class people, you can easily lose sight of how everyone else lives.

When people think Tesla, they think “Model S” at $100K+. Regardless, lots of Model 3 purchasers are affluent.
Yet owning a house or new cars does not make you affluent. You may owe a bundle on those things and barely make ends meet. No one knows but your accountant.

I think the best way to look at it is that most Tesla owners are not of “average” means. Average is less income than most people think. We are fortunate - and forward thinking. Many people are dragging about buying an EV because they don’t want to “be different.” We are all definitely “different.”
 
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Think I would mostly agree with your buddy. If you own a house in SoCal AND have purchased cars that are either new or almost new, you are very affluent and certainly upper class (like every single person on this forum). When you're surrounded by nothing but upper class people, you can easily lose sight of how everyone else lives.


My house was 393k, purchased in 2013 (less expensive than houses in many other places). Judging people by their possessions is silly. I know people who drive old cars and wear ratty close that have over a million dollars, and I know people who drive fancy cars and live in nice houses that are broke.
 
My house was 393k, purchased in 2013 (less expensive than houses in many other places). Judging people by their possessions is silly. I know people who drive old cars and wear ratty close that have over a million dollars, and I know people who drive fancy cars and live in nice houses that are broke.

I agree. My point was that if you can even get credit for a 300k+ house and 50k+ car, I would consider that affluent even if it is a poor allocation of available resources. Someone with those means could also choose to live very well with a fancy, new 200k house and 30k car in a less expensive area (assuming the same job existed in that area which might or might not be likely). Affluent is defined as "having a great deal of money". It says nothing about how that money is spent or how content the person is with what they have.
 
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. Affluent is defined as "having a great deal of money".


And what constitutes a "great deal of money" in CA is vastly different from what constitutes having a "great deal of money" in, say, Mississippi.

Because otherwise there's homeless folks in the US who have "a great deal of money" compared to some folks in other parts of the world if you just go by total funds instead of considering the context.
 
I have never understood the demand in the US for SUVs and crossovers.

Instincts. Men have a natural hunting instinct, and women have a natural gathering instinct. I don't make the rules, it's just the way it is so no flaming me for stating a fact.

The other fact is that women are incredibly influential in the car buying process even if the car is not for them to drive. That's another instinct thing that causes men to get themselves into all sorts of trouble, including wars.

So put them together, and that's why SUV's are taking over. Women just love them for stuffing all the things they gather while grazing at the shopping centers and super markets.

Watch this video and listen to how, no matter what, it just comes down to the ability to stuff more and larger things in the vehicle for this woman:
 
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