2021 Shipping Movements

[RazorCH3]

I forgot to mention timings.
I'm going to assume she routes direct from Singapore to Suez and then direct to Southampton.
On that basis she should arrive in Southampton around 3 August.
Based on delivery expectations in France she could be heading to Le Havre too.
We won't find out for sure where she's heading until she is through the Suez canal (around 27 July).

Still fits with timings of mid-August for delivery, so i'm still hoping

 

[TesTed]

With those timings in mind, at what point should we expect to hear word on VINs/dates?

 

[RazorCH3]

With those timings in mind, at what point should we expect to hear word on VINs/dates?

I asked earlier and was told when the ship arrives??? It seems that it may happen while en route, from what others have said so hopefully next few weeks? Sorry, only made a note of the ship name.

 

[Mr Miserable]

A little more research reveals:
She is scheduled to arrive in Southampton on 13 Aug.
Interestingly her schedule shows her routing via Bristol although she doesn't appear on the Bristol port schedule.

 

[Mr Miserable]

I asked earlier and was told when the ship arrives??? It seems that it may happen while en route, from what others have said so hopefully next few weeks? Sorry, only made a note of the ship name.

The ship name is fantastic - thank you.

 

[RazorCH3]

A little more research reveals:
She is scheduled to arrive in Southampton on 13 Aug.
Interestingly her schedule shows her routing via Bristol although she doesn't appear on the Bristol port schedule.

The Tesla logistics department like to throw you off the scent maybe? Making you work harder to track them

 

[C225]

Assuming my inventory stock order from last week is on that ship, I've got a delivery estimate of 17/08-02/09 so fits well. I have a VIN on my booking invoice already.

 

[Roberts1785]

@Mr Miserable Tesla chat agent confirmed my car is on the way over on first ship, PAGNA 6/W - CN SHG-GB SOU

Does this name mean anything to you?

@RazorCH3 how do you get them to tell you these details? Every time i ask its just end of August and cant tell me anything else. I ordered my M3LR on the 19th June, so hope my car is on that boat!!

 

[Roberts1785]

@Mr Miserable Tesla chat agent confirmed my car is on the way over on first ship, PAGNA 6/W - CN SHG-GB SOU

Does this name mean anything to you?

@RazorCH3 how do you get them to tell you this information? Every time i do a chat i just get told due end of august that’s all the can tell me, ordered my M3LR June 19th i so hope my car is on that ship!

 

[RazorCH3]

@RazorCH3 how do you get them to tell you these details? Every time i ask its just end of August and cant tell me anything else. I ordered my M3LR on the 19th June, so hope my car is on that boat!!

Just ask nicely, I guess? I have been in contact with them every week since i ordered, as I'm trying to plan my current car going back, new baby arriving, new car arriving... But i know some people on here are getting little to no info back. My SC is also really helpful, they have a lot more info on their screen than we can see.

 

[sparkymark75]

@RazorCH3 how do you get them to tell you this information? Every time i do a chat i just get told due end of august that’s all the can tell me, ordered my M3LR June 19th i so hope my car is on that ship!

Same, I ask nicely and just get the same vague answers as everyone else. I guess some agents are more helpful than others!

 

[nova56]

Hello together especially @Mr Miserable.

First of all, HOEGH OSLO is confirmed as a supplier by Tesla Service. I also wonder what the stopover in Libya means?

If Tesla now also charters partial occupancies in Q3, it will be difficult to track these ships. Because then some ships will be eligible for this.

And as for the MONZA, surely it could receive its Tesla delivery in August after returning from Korea and then transport it to Europe?

I suspect this quarter will be very special once again.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

She departed Shanghai on 3 Jul after just 12hrs loading (quite short - implying a partial load)
That is very early in Q3 and would suggest that the cars onboard were either manufactured on 1 July or more likely manufactured in Q2 which is very unusual for Tesla. We have seen cars delivered to Singapore and Australia so far this quarter that were actually made in Q2 and so we may have a new trend.
At 183m long, she is a little smaller than the 200m+ long ships Tesla usually charter and her routing suggests she may not be fully chartered, which is also unusual. This revelation also makes HOEGH OSLO and possibly even GLOVIS SUPERIOR contenders for Zeebrugge.
PAGNA is currently enroute to Singapore and is presently making just under 16 kts in the South China Sea about 400NM northwest of Brunei.

I think Tesla is now pretty sure to be profitable each quarter going forward. Combined with production and deliveries going up probably 10% on average each quarter they may start to care less about deliveries slipping a quarter. At least for smallish shipments.

With 200k cars each quarter now, 2k cars is only 1%. Now they have 2k (or whatever number) extra in Q3. Or they can do it again at the end of Q3 and let some slip over into Q4.

As production grows this will be less and less of a problem.

As for the smaller ships, wasn't there talk recently about a problem securing ships out of some ports? Or was that only because of Covid concerns in those ports, not actual lack of ships?

Either way. If there was a problem getting enough of the regular ships that might actually be another reason to send some early to avoid a problem getting all exports shipped before end of Q3.

Also, the youtube videos from the last week of Q2 did show a huge number of cars that seemed to be meant for export. This was kind of in doubt then, for the same reason you bring up - that was not how Tesla normally did it, but it fits well with this ship leaving on July 3.

 

[Desmo1]

My delivery is confirmed here in southern Germany for M3 LRW between 03-15 Aug. So maybe Pagna stops on Zeebruge before heading over to the UK….

 

[NJR46]

So if a boat load of cars arrives, say, mid August will these all be “delivered” in September for the new 71 plate registration?

 

[MrT3]

So if a boat load of cars arrives, say, mid August will these all be “delivered” in September for the new 71 plate registration?

Normally many would be delivered and/or schedule to be picked up within the same month, but because there is a new registration I wonder if they will delay them to try and get another record month.

 

[Mr Miserable]

I think Tesla is now pretty sure to be profitable each quarter going forward. Combined with production and deliveries going up probably 10% on average each quarter they may start to care less about deliveries slipping a quarter. At least for smallish shipments.

With 200k cars each quarter now, 2k cars is only 1%. Now they have 2k (or whatever number) extra in Q3. Or they can do it again at the end of Q3 and let some slip over into Q4.

As production grows this will be less and less of a problem.

As for the smaller ships, wasn't there talk recently about a problem securing ships out of some ports? Or was that only because of Covid concerns in those ports, not actual lack of ships?

Either way. If there was a problem getting enough of the regular ships that might actually be another reason to send some early to avoid a problem getting all exports shipped before end of Q3.

Also, the youtube videos from the last week of Q2 did show a huge number of cars that seemed to be meant for export. This was kind of in doubt then, for the same reason you bring up - that was not how Tesla normally did it, but it fits well with this ship leaving on July 3.

You may well be right on several points you raise.
We are seeing strange goings-on over at Pier 80 which would indicate a change of planned production schedules and in Shanghai small shipments straddling the quarter end. I wonder whether the delay to Berlin coming online has thrown a spanner in the works?

 

[Mr Miserable]

My delivery is confirmed here in southern Germany for M3 LRW between 03-15 Aug. So maybe Pagna stops on Zeebruge before heading over to the UK….

No we are looking for another ship for Zeebrugge I think.
I think HOEGH OSLO is a safe bet now but she won't arrive in Zeebrugge until 14 Aug.
If GLOVIS SUPERIOR is heading to Zeebrugge she should arrive around 7 Aug
If Tesla are straddling quarter ends it makes it very difficult to narrow down the list of suspect vessels.
CARMEN left Shanghai on 29 Jun and will arrive in Zeebrugge on 2 Aug

 

[Mr Miserable]

So if a boat load of cars arrives, say, mid August will these all be “delivered” in September for the new 71 plate registration?

In the past if you wanted to take delivery in August and it was possible, Tesla would arrange it.
In Q1 we saw some leasing companies wanting to delay delivery until March for the new plate and Tesla certainly was certainly holding over deliveries in June. September will probably be like March since there is no way Tesla can take the No 1 spot overall but should be able to make a good stab at most popular EV.

 

[nova56]

A new shipname, actually said by a german SeC-Advisor is HELIOS RAY.
Just outside SHG and seems waiting for a place at the Tesla-Pier? I ve done this ship in my "glassbowl" and waiting what happens ...

Greets from german TFF-Forum