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2021 Shipping Movements

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TALIA is enroute to Southampton where she is due to arrive next Saturday (30th). She has been making steady progress across the Med but at the moment her speed has dropped to under 13kts. She is not alone many vessels around her have slowed also. I can't explain it other than she may have entered an area of rough seas. There is nothing in the weather forecast. The wind in her locale is not responsible, it's only 14 kts, and so it's probably down to a confluence of swells.
I'll try and do a separate post on waves and swells later today. Anyway, I suspect it's just a localised phenomena she's entered and in a couple of hours she'll be back up to speed.

TALIA Med.png


LAKE FUXIAN continues her excellent progress towards Suez and was last seen to be making over 17kts. I suspect however that is the last report we will receive from her until Friday when she is halfway up the Red Sea. This is due to what appears to be a company policy to switch off the AIS transmission on approaching an area where the risk of an attack from Iranian backed militia is high. I may do a separate post on this subject too, if time allows.
She is heading to Zeebrugge and I estimate she will arrive there around 10 Nov.


Fux sin-suez.png


LAKE GENEVA is making steady progress at 16kts in fine weather towards Suez. She is heading to Koper in Slovenia where she will arrive on 6 Nov.

GEN SinSuz.png


GLOVIS CHAMPION stopped to refuel on her way past Singapore and is now heading for Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The ship was on the watch list but the combination of a very short loading time in Shanghai and the Saudi visit means that she is very unlikely to be a Tesla charter. She will be carrying on through Suez after Jeddah but she is no longer on my watch list.

As we say goodbye to one Glovis vessel we say hello to another, GLOVIS CHALLENGE has departed Shanghai enroute for Suez where she is due to arrive on 10 Nov. I don't think she will be UK bound but if heading for Zeebrugge she should arrive around 20 Nov or if heading for Koper 14 Nov. She is definitely on the watch list though.
 
Waves and Swells

I was asked a question last year on this subject and reproduce the answer below:

The science of forecasting wave heights is a complex one and is becoming more complex as more is learned about their formation and characteristics.
In short, waves are caused by wind, however there are a number of factors which determine their height and, equally important, their frequency. Wind speed is clearly a factor and essentially it is the wind strength relative to the existing wave speed. Additionally the width and length of the fetch ie how big an area over which the wind blows in a single direction, are big factors coupled with the depth of the water.

All these factors affect the characteristics of a wave:
  1. Wave height which is measured from the crest to the trough.
  2. Wave length which is measured from crest to crest.
  3. Wave frequency which is the time interval between crests over a single point.
All this makes perfect sense when you think about it - you can’t get 50ft waves in Coniston Water but you can see them in the Atlantic.
Studying wave behaviour gave rise to the Beaufort Scale where the windspeed at sea could be pretty accurately estimated from wave behaviour.
The trouble is that waves carry an enormous amount of energy and they can travel great distances.

That is when they become a swell - they travel so far they bear no relation to the local wind conditions. You may have a wonderful calm day in Cornwall but the beaches are being pounded by big Atlantic rollers - the swell created some time ago by a storm many miles away. (A Tsunami however is not a swell)
You can have the swell travelling in one direction (generally smooth topped waves) and wind waves (peaked) travelling in another.
A cape can cause treacherously confused sea conditions as differing swells collide at different angles from the prevailing wind waves.

Only recently have scientists admitted to the existence of rogue waves, where waves combine to produce monster waves which have long been known about by mariners.

For years, scientists relied on a formula to compute the size of waves and there is a maximum wave size in this formula which many mariners argued was too small compared to the reality. It’s very difficult for a simple mariner to argue against a boffin with a slide rule. I have personal knowledge of this when giving evidence as to the size of waves one stormy night many years ago when a man was lost overboard from a nearby vessel. My evidence (and those of others in the same area of the Baltic at the time)was described as an exaggeration by a university professor. I described it as a short sea (waves coming at a high frequency) interspersed with bigger waves at a much lower frequency (a swell). If they combined (perhaps once an hour) you got a monster wave that would break over the vessel easily washing someone outside on a deck overboard. Anyway, I digress…

Forecasting wave heights has improved as they are now measured by satellite and computer models can be quickly adjusted to reflect actual conditions however, I don’t think the forecasting of swells per se has improved to the same degree.

Late last year a Briton applied to Guinness World Records for the title for the largest wave surfed, a monster over 80’ high off Portugal. This will probably come down to how the height of the wave is measured. For surfing, one method involves standing on the beach looking out to sea and another method takes an opposite view looking towards the beach from the sea. The large difference between the two methods is the trough size which is larger on the advancing side as the wave approaches the shore.
 
Waves and Swells

I was asked a question last year on this subject and reproduce the answer below:

The science of forecasting wave heights is a complex one and is becoming more complex as more is learned about their formation and characteristics.
In short, waves are caused by wind, however there are a number of factors which determine their height and, equally important, their frequency. Wind speed is clearly a factor and essentially it is the wind strength relative to the existing wave speed. Additionally the width and length of the fetch ie how big an area over which the wind blows in a single direction, are big factors coupled with the depth of the water.

All these factors affect the characteristics of a wave:
  1. Wave height which is measured from the crest to the trough.
  2. Wave length which is measured from crest to crest.
  3. Wave frequency which is the time interval between crests over a single point.
All this makes perfect sense when you think about it - you can’t get 50ft waves in Coniston Water but you can see them in the Atlantic.
Studying wave behaviour gave rise to the Beaufort Scale where the windspeed at sea could be pretty accurately estimated from wave behaviour.
The trouble is that waves carry an enormous amount of energy and they can travel great distances.

That is when they become a swell - they travel so far they bear no relation to the local wind conditions. You may have a wonderful calm day in Cornwall but the beaches are being pounded by big Atlantic rollers - the swell created some time ago by a storm many miles away. (A Tsunami however is not a swell)
You can have the swell travelling in one direction (generally smooth topped waves) and wind waves (peaked) travelling in another.
A cape can cause treacherously confused sea conditions as differing swells collide at different angles from the prevailing wind waves.

Only recently have scientists admitted to the existence of rogue waves, where waves combine to produce monster waves which have long been known about by mariners.

For years, scientists relied on a formula to compute the size of waves and there is a maximum wave size in this formula which many mariners argued was too small compared to the reality. It’s very difficult for a simple mariner to argue against a boffin with a slide rule. I have personal knowledge of this when giving evidence as to the size of waves one stormy night many years ago when a man was lost overboard from a nearby vessel. My evidence (and those of others in the same area of the Baltic at the time)was described as an exaggeration by a university professor. I described it as a short sea (waves coming at a high frequency) interspersed with bigger waves at a much lower frequency (a swell). If they combined (perhaps once an hour) you got a monster wave that would break over the vessel easily washing someone outside on a deck overboard. Anyway, I digress…

Forecasting wave heights has improved as they are now measured by satellite and computer models can be quickly adjusted to reflect actual conditions however, I don’t think the forecasting of swells per se has improved to the same degree.

Late last year a Briton applied to Guinness World Records for the title for the largest wave surfed, a monster over 80’ high off Portugal. This will probably come down to how the height of the wave is measured. For surfing, one method involves standing on the beach looking out to sea and another method takes an opposite view looking towards the beach from the sea. The large difference between the two methods is the trough size which is larger on the advancing side as the wave approaches the shore.
Mr M. how about the Grand Pace ship?
 
Hello,
I am norwegian and i am following your thread since my order on september the 21th (Model Y LR black/black).
I received my VIN on friday, i havent been contacted by Tesla. Do you think it's on LAKE FUXIAN ? thanks for the great work
 
Hello,
I am norwegian and i am following your thread since my order on september the 21th (Model Y LR black/black).
I received my VIN on friday, i havent been contacted by Tesla. Do you think it's on LAKE FUXIAN ? thanks for the great work
Thanks a difficult call in the absence of a expected delivery date. Did Tesla tell you early to mid December for delivery?
 
It might be worth having a chat with Tesla to see if they can give you a more accurate delivery date.
Speaking to Tesla, they’re now flip flopping between late November to early December depending on who you talk too for for a SR+ model in the U.K.

Have you seen any ships so far that look promising for late November deliveries to the U.K.?
 
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As expected TALIA will dock first in the Eastern Docks when she arrives in Southampton on Saturday. The good news is that she is expected to dock at 08:30 which is earlier than expected. At around 2100 she will then reposition to the Western Docks where she can then unload her Teslas.
The other good news is that TALIA has increased her speed up to 15kts. More speed required though.
 
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