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2021 Shipping Movements

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#761
Mr Miserable said:
Some folk like these quarterly summaries.
The RT value is a unit of measure that relates to a 1966 Toyota.
The way to use this chart is to compare the Total RT value from previous quarters with known import values for that specific quarter. With that comparison you should get a pretty good idea of likely 2021 Q1 figures.
The only vague areas are that I do not believe MORNING CAPO and GRANDE TEXAS were likely to be full loads. Having said that, since nearly all the UK shipments will have been delivered and registered during March the approximate combined figure of the 3 shipments should become publicly available in early April. (Some of the Southampton cars will have gone to Ireland)



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Hey Mr. M

here is a comparison of a Tesla Model 3 next to a Toyota Corona
 

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#762
Mr Miserable said:
I thought I would start a new thread for 2021 on European bound ships carrying Teslas.
The first logical question is why on earth would anyone on a Tesla forum be interested in shipping?
The answer is because once you have ordered your revolutionary expensive new car you enter the Tesla blackout zone - a frustrating period of non-communication from Tesla when you have no idea of what is happening with your order. If you call them, they just say they 'are waiting for a match'. What does that mean? Tesla don't build Model 3s to order - they build what they want and then match their production to what has been ordered. This 'matching' usually happens around the time the car is loaded on to a ship. Aha! Shipping has suddenly become interesting!

US manufactured Model 3s are made at the Tesla Fremont factory and then transported by road 50 miles to San Francisco's Pier 80 where they are loaded into exclusively chartered RoRo vehicle carriers for the jouney to Europe. It takes 2-3 days to load, and then a further 8 days to sail down to Panama. Usually the ships will wait at the entrance to the canal until the early hours of the morning when the northbound flow begins and 8 hours later they emerge into the Caribbean for the 11 - 12 day transit to Zeebrugge, which is the main point of entry for Tesla European sales. After unloading the LHD cars, the ship will generally then head for Southampton.
Not every ship that will load at Pier 80 will be heading to Europe, some head to the Far East.

I should also mention that Model S / X are shipped partially disassembled in containers via rail to Houston and then shipped to Rotterdam for the required reassembly in Tilburg in Holland before being delivered to the UK.

Chinese Model 3s are made in the Shanghai gigafactory and are shipped to Zeebrugge through the Suez Canal in a journey taking about 30 days. So far we have only seen LHD SR+ being shipped but there is gossip that China will supply all RHD Model 3 and Model Y in the future, but there is no timeframe or evidence to support that chatter, yet. Monitoring Shanghai shipping is not as as easy as San Francisco although the 2 shipments made in 2020 Q4 were fairly easy to spot.

If you are in Auz/NZ, I am afraid I won't be covering any of your shipments. They are generally by container from Oakland and I expect shortly from Shanghai too by RoRo.

If you are in Dubai, your Model 3 will be loaded on to a ship that heads initially to Zeebrugge before heading subsequently to Jebel Ali. Accordingly, you should expect your cars to be onboard on one of the earlier vessels.

I mentioned Q4 earlier- this is because Tesla work in quarters with Q1 running from Jan to Mar. The Tesla business model requires as many cars as possible produced in a quarter to be paid for (delivered) in that same quarter.
This means that in Q1 the last ship will leave for Europe no later than around 26 Feb in order to allow for a 3 week transit to Zeebrugge and then a hectic delivery push in the last 10 days or so of March. It is logical then in early January to expect to see a large number of RHD models for the UK market to be clogging the production lines. This explains the feast or famine nature of Tesla logistics.
To add to the end of quarter rush, (Tesla excel at end of quarter rushes) Tesla may also ship cars overland to the East coast of the USA and ship them to Europe from either Newark or Philadelphia. This is a much more expensive route and so may not happen every quarter. Nevertheless, I am wise to it and include these ports in my routine monitoring.

There is an excellent spreadsheet populated with the latest (and historical) confirmed shipping information from a variety of sources - Tesla Carriers . It may be more of interest to you later as you become more engrossed in this subject! Did i mention it can become addictive?

Anyway, I think we can expect to see about 8 boatloads to Europe in Q1.
That begs the next question - how big are the boats? The standard ocean going vehicle carrier is 200metres long and 32 m wide and can fit about 5000 - 5500 cars onboard. Teslas are larger and significantly heavier than a standard car and so a maximum of 3500 - 4500 cars are in each shipment.
Traditionally the size of these ships, like many others, was restricted to the dimensions of the Panama Canal locks however in 2016 additional locks, longer and wider (427m & 55m), were opened for use and bigger car carriers are now able to transit. We have seen a couple of these larger vessels being used but using the new canal locks is much more expensive, less flexible to book and more likely to incur delays.

Anyway the plan is to post details of the latest Tesla shipping news for 2021 to this thread.
There are a number of ship trackers you can use to follow the ships and www.marinetraffic.com is one with perhaps the best free coverage but there are plenty of others. The ships transmit a signal which is picked up by shore based receivers (mostly hosted by amateurs) and forwarded to the website. The trouble is the signal is a VHF signal meaning the receiver has to generally be within line-of-sight and once the ship goes over the horizon to the receiver that's it, unless you pay for satellite coverage, like me. With the help of satellite tracking I will provide a daily update on exactly where each 'Tesla' ship is and provide an estimated time of arrival to Zeebrugge and Southampton (the UK port of entry for Tesla). I'll also try and add some background info which you may find interesting.

You can help me and others by keeping any posts on this thread strictly to shipping related matters - questions about when to expect delivery, VINs and panel gaps have their own threads, which I have been known to visit and contribute to also.

I am posting this now because I think I have in my sights the 1st ship of 2021 that will load at Pier 80 and will come to Europe......
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Thank you for this, I am new to Tesla so quite an interesting read. Any ideas on a M3P ordered October 2020?
 
#764
Mr Miserable said:
Tilburg was a strange location to be chosen in the 1st place and I suspect that significant 'encouragements' were made for Tesla to site themselves there.
Whatever, the factory gate to customer time for the Model S & X will now be much faster and with significantly cheaper logistics I think these benefits will now outweigh any tax benefit to Tesla. That is so long as there are large quantities of Model 3s to ship across the Atlantic at the same time.
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I believe they did the final assembly in Tilburg to reduce the import duty. I think they're shutting Tilburg down because there isn't enough demand for MS and MX to justify its cost of operation. Demand for the MX and MS will drop further once the MY arrives, probably very soon. New MSs and MXs will arrive on boats from Fremont fully assembled. But I suspect the MYs for the EU will originate in China.
Mr Miserable said:
Some folk like these quarterly summaries.
The RT value is a unit of measure that relates to a 1966 Toyota.
The way to use this chart is to compare the Total RT value from previous quarters with known import values for that specific quarter. With that comparison you should get a pretty good idea of likely 2021 Q1 figures.
The only vague areas are that I do not believe MORNING CAPO and GRANDE TEXAS were likely to be full loads. Having said that, since nearly all the UK shipments will have been delivered and registered during March the approximate combined figure of the 3 shipments should become publicly available in early April. (Some of the Southampton cars will have gone to Ireland)



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A guy i follow on Twitter reported that the total unloading time was less this quarter than last quarter. When I saw that I was wondering if that data is actually available or if he was just looking at the amount of time a ship was tied up at the dock which wouldn't necessarily correlate with how many cars were unloaded. Any thoughts?
 
#765
howardoark said:
A guy i follow on Twitter reported that the total unloading time was less this quarter than last quarter. When I saw that I was wondering if that data is actually available or if he was just looking at the amount of time a ship was tied up at the dock which wouldn't necessarily correlate with how many cars were unloaded. Any thoughts?
Click to expand...
I should imagine loading time at Pier 80 would be a better measure. They seem to have a fixed number of stevedores loading there whereas at Zeebrugge I suspect the number of stevedores and the hours worked vary depending on how many other vessels are being handled concurrently.
I would think the draught would be a more accurate measure.
 
#775
Mr H said:
Does anyone know which port parts are shipped from ? I'm guessing it's Newark
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Parts will probably shipped in containers and there is an established Tesla container route from Houston to Rotterdam.
Superchargers and the like come from New York in containers.
Whether China will supply spares is another unanswered question.
 
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#778
Mr Miserable said:
Parts will probably shipped in containers and there is an established Tesla container route from Houston to Rotterdam.
Superchargers and the like come from New York in containers.
Whether China will supply spares is another unanswered question.
Click to expand...
Do you know the sailing time from Houston. A parts ship departed on 16th September although my SA didn’t say where from.
 
#779
MathieuW said:
We just got a phone call from our SA telling us the delivery is delayed by a day because "the boat is delayed". Saturday 27 instead of friday 26. Boat is the VIKING BRAVERY.
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If you look back through this thread you will see that the VIKING BRAVERY arrived in Zeebrugge on 19 Mar - a date I was forecasting since 9 Mar
 
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#780
Mr H said:
Do you know the sailing time from Houston. A parts ship departed on 16th September although my SA didn’t say where from.
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It's 16 days from Houston to Rotterdam but the 16 Mar? date doesn't tie in - ships departed there on 14 Mar and 19 Mar.
It must be from somewhere else - a container ship will take about 8 days to cross from the US east coast direct.
 
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