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2021 Shipping Movements

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The latest from Pier 80 is that the loading of the HORIZON LEADER should be completed in a few hours time but the ship is still intending to wait and depart in the small hours of tomorrow morning. (Around midday UK time). I'm unsure whether this is weather related but this time coincides with a forecasted lull in the winds shown on the latest forecast.

Update: I'm not sure the wind is too much of a concern - I've just checked it and it is 17kts. Whilst the limiting factor here is the critical wind for the use of bow thrusters, a couple of tugs will easily handle this situation.
 
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I may have missed it but when do we expect and what is the name of the next ship from Shanghai to EU after the Glovis Century
The 2 ships to the EU this quarter are possibly TORONTO which should arrive in Zeebrugge on 26 Feb and probably MORNING CAPO which arrives there on 6 Mar.
The next ship to the UK is not known at the moment but won't be imminent because according to a usually reliable source they are making LHD cars at the moment.
 
Hi Mr. Miserable

I noticed that the available Tesla inventory in the EU went up after the Glovis Captain left SF ( https://ev-tsla.com/hunter/index.php ). The inventory has been going down since, but I don't see much in the way of registrations in Norway ( eu-evs.com )- do you know if unsold cars on the boats from SF get added to inventory when the boat sails?

Thanks
This is somewhat of an accounting question and I'm an engineer, but my understanding is that a car becomes "inventory" as soon as it is made, and retains that status until delivered to the customer. When somebody buys one and it is "allocated" to that customer, it is still inventory.
Since Tesla is a public company, it wants to report as many sales as possible, and minimize product in inventory. Thus the bizarre production and ship movement at the beginning and middle of each quarter and huge push to deliver at the end of a quarter.

As I say, I'm an engineer. Please correct me if this is wrong.
 
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This is somewhat of an accounting question and I'm an engineer, but my understanding is that a car becomes "inventory" as soon as it is made, and retains that status until delivered to the customer. When somebody buys one and it is "allocated" to that customer, it is still inventory.
Since Tesla is a public company, it wants to report as many sales as possible, and minimize product in inventory. Thus the bizarre production and ship movement at the beginning and middle of each quarter and huge push to deliver at the end of a quarter.

As I say, I'm an engineer. Please correct me if this is wrong.

I'm sure that's correct. The issue is that the inventory specific to Europe (https://ev-tsla.com/hunter/index.php ) goes up and down mysteriously. It currently lists 619 M3s available in Europe. I think when the next boat from SF leaves that number will go up.
 
The 2 ships to the EU this quarter are possibly TORONTO which should arrive in Zeebrugge on 26 Feb and probably MORNING CAPO which arrives there on 6 Mar.
The next ship to the UK is not known at the moment but won't be imminent because according to a usually reliable source they are making LHD cars at the moment.

are those two ships not due for a subsequent stop at Southampton?

Trying to figure this out as:

- it seems RHD U.K. M3s are all now coming from China
- GLOVIS CENTURY has the first batch
- many more orders placed in December and January (most tow hitch orders seem to be in this set) are unmatched and so not on the GLOVIS CENTURY but are still being told late Feb/March delivery
 
This is somewhat of an accounting question and I'm an engineer, but my understanding is that a car becomes "inventory" as soon as it is made, and retains that status until delivered to the customer. When somebody buys one and it is "allocated" to that customer, it is still inventory.
Since Tesla is a public company, it wants to report as many sales as possible, and minimize product in inventory. Thus the bizarre production and ship movement at the beginning and middle of each quarter and huge push to deliver at the end of a quarter.

As I say, I'm an engineer. Please correct me if this is wrong.
You are correct but it goes even a bit further. It wants to sell every car it makes each quarter and minimise the inventory level at the end of the quarter. Moreover, it will have agreed credit terms with its suppliers so that effectively Tesla don't pay their suppliers until the car is sold. It's not quite as simple as that but that is the concept, the build is financed by suppliers. To ensure sales in Europe are paid for by the end of the quarter the cars destined for EU are manufactured early in the quarter. The same applies to Chinese production.
Look in the US section to discover how Tesla finance the building of the Giga factories - an simply amazing and unique business model!
 
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HORIZON LEADER is preparing to depart Pier 80 and has already updated her AIS to show her next destination to be the Panama Canal.
Her ETA of 1300Z on 2 Feb would imply that this is going to be a fast run down the Pacific coast but I suspect that ETA may get tweaked by tomorrow - we shall see.
For the moment I will stick with an ETA for Zeebrugge of 16 Feb but there may be the potential for it to come left a day

UPDATE That ETA has already been tweaked to show an arrival on the evening of Feb 2. On that basis I expect her transit the Panama Canal on 3 Feb. Accordingly I am revising my ETA for her arrival in Zeebrugge to 15 Feb.
 
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GLOVIS CAPTAIN is currently in the Caribbean and on course to enter the Atlantic via the Mona passage - a good decision in my opinion.
It’s a little choppy in the Caribbean at the moment and her speed has reduced to below 10kts but the Atlantic weather in the week ahead looks to be quite a bit more sporty at times.
If I was onboard GLOVIS CAPTAIN I would be studying the weather forecasts and planning a track to keep me well to the east and well clear of the weather that will be producing 15m high waves later in the week. At the very least I would recommend a rhumb line course through the Azores.
Her ETA for Zeebrugge is 6 Feb but there is potential here for delays especially if she doesn’t plan her course wisely.

GLovis  Captain Caribbean .png


HORIZON LEADER is now departing from Pier 80 for Panama. It looks like she has a canal transit booked for 3 Feb which will require her to get a wiggle on (I’m a little surprised she didn’t leave last night). The weather for her passage to Panama is not quite as nice as GLOVIS CAPTAIN experienced, being a little rough at times but nothing to cause a possible delay. I say that but it will be interesting to see how she navigates the area of the Tehuantepecer wind which is forecast to be blowing strongly by the the time she gets there.
I have brought forward my estimate for her arrival in Zeebrugge to 15 Feb.

COSCO SHENGSHI will arrive alongside Pier 80 later this evening in preparation to commence loading tomorrow morning. I suspect she will be heading to the Far East.

GLOVIS CENTURY I’m pretty confident that this ship is loaded with the first MIC RHD Model 3s for UK and Ireland.
I am now receiving satellite positions from her. Weather conditions in the South China Sea are fine and will remain good for the remainder of her voyage to Singapore . She is due to arrive in Singapore tomorrow (10pm tonight UK time) but I am not sure how long she will be staying there for.
She will then route to Southampton via the Suez Canal and at the moment I reckon she will arrive there around 21 Feb - it all very much depends on how long she stays in Singapore.

G Cent S China Sea.png
 
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HORIZON LEADER's departure from Pier 80 was unusual in that no tugs were in attendance, not even standing by. Very unusual.

Update. Her departure from the San Francisco Bay was also slightly unusual in that she went south of Alcatraz Island, a route that I haven't seen used by Tesla RoRo's since TRIUMPH ACE departed in July 2019! By the way, a tug did eventualy turn up but was far too late to assist in any way. These 2 events give me the impression that this is a ship in a hurry.
 
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I've been taking a closer look at COSCO SHENGSHI and doubt very much that she will arrive at Pier 80 tonight as planned. She was meant to arrive at Hueneme (just north of Los Angeles) yesterday but has only just turned up there. It's not the end of the world because fortuneately GLOVIS COMPANION is not due to load at Pier 80 until Sunday. (Coincidentally SEBRING EXPRESS, which COSCO SHENGSHI replaced, is presently just passing San Francisco on her way down to Mexico) Nevertheless, COSCO SHENGSHI needs to get a wiggle on and must not cause a delay to GLOVIS COMPANION .
 
With HORIZON LEADER racing her way down to Panama it must be time for the HORIZON LEADER competition!!

All you have to do is, using your skill and judgement, decide where HORIZON LEADER will be at MiddayZ on 08 Feb 21.
It's free, quick and simple to enter and there is no prize. It's just a bit of fun!
Only 1 entry per person.
In the event of a tie, the person who chose the closest minor gridsquare first will be declared the winner.
The competition will close when HORIZON LEADER enters the Panama Canal.

Atlantic Major Squares.png



Click HERE to enter.
 
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GLOVIS CAPTAIN has managed to get her speed up to just over 12kts but it's clearly quite rough at the moment.
All vehicles are tied down immediately during loading and the lashings are checked regularly whilst at sea. Cars are parked close together (30-40cm) so that should a lashing break and the car becomes loose it will only damage its immediate neighbours. There is a minimum distance to ensure that during heavy rolling vehicles won't touch each other and to allow inspection of the lashings. Additionally, the handbrake will be applied and if manual, it will be left in a low gear.
 
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