Pier 80 movements
GLOVIS COSMOS will depart this evening, and the word on the street is that this should happen around 5pm local (0100 UK Time). The first clue of an imminent departure will be when
LE MANS EXPRESS picks up her pilot and starts to approach SF Bay. Apparently the previous RCC TIANJIN/GLOVIS COSMOS changeover where the dock was empty for only about 10 minutes was an operation they want to repeat.
At the moment I estimate GLOVIS COSMOS will arrive in Zeebrugge around 8 May.
I am unsure about LE MANS EXPRESS' destination but I am reasonably confident it will not be to Europe. She won't be alongside for too long as
GRAND RACE is already on the way and is due to arrive on Monday evening. GRAND RACE is quite an old ship and is about 20 metres shorter than a 'standard' RoRo and so I don't think she will be heading to Europe either.
I have tried to forecast future Pier 80 ships to Europe and I am not as confident as previous quarters because I think the Suez blockage has disrupted EU shipping schedules and they are not yet fully populated. Additionally with some cars for EU being supplied by Shanghai this quarter I think we may see a corresponding reduction in the number of ships heading to Zeebrugge from Pier 80 this quarter.
I am pretty sure we can expect to see
LAKE FUXION (a cert to Zeebrugge) and
GLOVIS SUMMIT is looking a likely suspect but any others would just be guesswork at the moment.
Shanghai movements
Nailing down Tesla ships from Shanghai is again proving to be hard work.
RCC AFRICA is believed to be carrying LHD Model 3s to Zeebrugge. She has just left Singapore (refuel stop) and has already entered the Malacca Straits and is due to arrive at the southern entrance to the Suez Canal on the 30 Apr. There are no longer any significant delays at Suez and I have pencilled her in to arrive in Zeebrugge on 11 May. There are no weather concerns for her voyage at present.
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I believe there is a ship already enroute to Southampton with RHD Model 3s on board.
The published Southampton port schedule does not project far enough ahead to positively identify possible Tesla ships so it is a case of waiting until the ship has passed through Suez to see where exactly it is heading.
There are a number of ships on my watch list at the moment:
GLORIOUS LEADER (a very slim chance in my opinion) ETA Suez on 25 Apr
LYDDEN ETA Suez on 29 Apr
Also appearing on my watch list are ships heading through Singapore. If they head to Suez after Singapore they will remain of interest.
TORRENS ETA Singapore tomorrow
GLOVIS CHAMPION ETA Singapore 20 Apr
LYDDEN is looking promising at the moment. She is presently in the Malacca Straits making about 15 kts. If she is heading for Southampton I would expect her around 9 May
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There are good indications that Shanghai has recently completed a RHD production run and that being the case I am monitoring the port for a further possible departure to Southampton. Certainly I believe at least one further shipment will be heading to the UK this quarter. I fully expect to see departures to Aus/NZ around the same time.
Another change for Tesla this quarter is that cars destined for Israel may be coming from Shanghai instead of Fremont. Quite how these cars will be shipped is unknown at present. They may be shipped via Zeebrugge on a Tesla charter and then moved to Antwerp for loading onto a Grimaldi scheduled service (as was done in Q1 from Pier 80) or because of the relatively small numbers may be shipped from China on a scheduled service. I shall try to keep an eye out for any possiblities. RCC ANTWERP may be worth keeping an eye on.