2021 Shipping Movements

[Washout]

In my net wanderings and reviewing this thread, I of course came across Wu Wa's YT vid of the Triton Ace being loaded with M3s, but didn't notice anyone identifying the pier being used. So just in case its useful I've clipped a screenshot of it from Marine Traffic and also noted that its the only pier near to GF3 (labelled to the North West), which has enough draught I wager for the Vehicle Carriers we're watching. The Dishui lake is a great landmark to navigate the area from if using Google Maps or similar.
Currently there are three vessels moored there, but they're all general cargo, so not likely of interest. However, despite the Yangtze River being festooned in piers, I'm going to be watching there from now on, given its convenience for shipping form GF3:

Correction - there is a Chinese registered vehicle carrier moored up now (AN JI 9)...

 

[Mr Miserable]

In my net wanderings and reviewing this thread, I of course came across Wu Wa's YT vid of the Triton Ace being loaded with M3s, but didn't notice anyone identifying the pier being used. So just in case its useful I've clipped a screenshot of it from Marine Traffic and also noted that its the only pier near to GF3 (labelled to the North West), which has enough draught I wager for the Vehicle Carriers we're watching. The Dishui lake is a great landmark to navigate the area from if using Google Maps or similar.
Currently there are three vessels moored there, but they're all general cargo, so not likely of interest. However, despite the Yangtze River being festooned in piers, I'm going to be watching there from now on, given its convenience for shipping form GF3:

View attachment 717163
Correction - there is a Chinese registered vehicle carrier moored up now (AN JI 9)...

Yup that's the one.
There is a project planned to develop this port specifically for Tesla but I haven't heard that any soil has been turned yet which is why when TRITON ACE turned up there it was a bit of a surprise. You will of course have noted that the TRITON ACE's arrival at this pier was announced here on this thread before the video surfaced and while TRITON ACE was still alongside.
The pier was being used for domestic shipments of vehicles prior to TRITON ACE's arrival and continues to be used in this fashion now.
The conclusion is that the port congestion in Shanghai (it has just 2 piers dedicated to vehicle shipments) in Q3 would have introduced unacceptable delays to the Tesla shipments and alternative piers were found to load the ships (Taicang was also utilised).
The question now is whether these alternatives will be used again? It won't have been a cheap or a simple option to have switched in the way that they did in Q3 (and quite how the Chinese bureaucracy coped with this dynamic change is a question many have raised) but I'm sure plans will have been put in place to ensure the timely shipment of vehicles in Q4.
The shipment of RoRo cargo requires specialist handling on the shore side that should not be underestimated. It needs a lot of trained manpower to load/unload efficiently and safely. You will find all sorts of local rules at vehicle handling piers that aren't required at other piers. As an example, people often comment on the apparent scruffy weatherbeaten appearance of vehicle carriers but there is a reason for this. Normally when a ship is alongside the opportunity to paint is taken however paint and new cars do not mix well and so painting among other things is expressly forbidden. As a result vehicle carriers often don't look as smart as other vessels.

 

[Mr Miserable]

The latest San Francisco Port Schedule has been published and it appears to confirm my theory that GRAND PACE is a direct replacement for the tardy RCC TIANJIN. We still don't know where GRAND PACE will head to but Taiwan or S Korea, or even both, are sound bets.

 

[Mr Miserable]

The BOSPOROUS HIGHWAY is currently alongside in Shanghai. She is another ship that will be heading to Europe but is very unlikely to be carrying Teslas. She will arrive in Zeebrugge on 13 Nov after calling at Livorno and Bristol. I will not be tracking this vessel.

 

[Washout]

A couple more noob questions and observations:
Is there more than one M3 and MY line in GF3 and do we know how quickly they can switch over from RHD to LHD and vice versa (I think I remember Elon tweeting it was easier than on ICE lines, due to the skateboard concept?)
Also I was looking at the latest Wu Wa and Jason Yang videos and it looks like there were 200+ cars left after the 30th Sept (with more coming off the line). Those residual cars look like LHD and that at least on the 1st Oct, RHD are not coming off the line...

 

[Mr Miserable]

A couple more noob questions and observations:
Is there more than one M3 and MY line in GF3 and do we know how quickly they can switch over from RHD to LHD and vice versa (I think I remember Elon tweeting it was easier than on ICE lines, due to the skateboard concept?)
Also I was looking at the latest Wu Wa and Jason Yang videos and it looks like there were 200+ cars left after the 30th Sept (with more coming off the line). Those residual cars look like LHD and that at least on the 1st Oct, RHD are not coming off the line...

They export LHD too.

 

[nova56]

Hi @Mr Miserable
I suspect that Tesla in Q4 will again get everything out of SHG to Europe in Q4.
Even if GF4 starts production in November, no significant quantities of Model Y will be made there until Christmas.
My estimate for Q4 is 15 ships, with again more charter and fewer liners. The new "South Pier" in SHG is ready
and Koper in Slovenia as a new port for Southern and Eastern Europe also seems to be running smoothly.

Greetings from the TFF Forum Germany

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

 

[Mr Miserable]

Two ships alongside Shanghai at the moment will be departing to Singapore.
GRAND ORION is heading to Europe and will call at Barcelona and Bristol (7 Nov) and is unlikely to be carrying Teslas.
I can't seem to find out where VIRGO LEADER is heading to after Singapore at the moment and so she is now on my watch list.
I also wouldn't get too excited at the arrival of RCC ASIA, which has been chartered by Tesla in the past, at the pier later today - she is heading to S Korea, possibly after a stop at Xinsha.

 

[Mr Miserable]

ATHENS HIGHWAY is now alongside Shanghai.
I note that she will turn up at Zeebrugge on 8 Nov however I think she is unlikely to be carrying Teslas.

 

[tmleafs17]

ATHENS HIGHWAY is now alongside Shanghai.
I note that she will turn up at Zeebrugge on 8 Nov however I think she is unlikely to be carrying Teslas.

After having my order on "hold" since May and being told today that its now "active" I will be watching your updates with anticipation. Keep up the great work!

 

[FlyingTimbo]

Yes thanks again for your work. It was very useful when I ordered my first one last year and 2nd time around, I'm just as eager!

 

[S.Lav]

I guess we will see an AIS position update when HELIOS RAY enters the Bering See and Kamchatka peninsula - any prior experience?

 

[avdhulst]

I guess we will see an AIS position update when HELIOS RAY enters the Bering See and Kamchatka peninsula - any prior experience?

The satellite position is updated regularly. It's currently here:

https://imgur.com/a/Gn5TZhA

 

[S.Lav]

Thanks @avdhulst !
I don't have gps access

 

[avdhulst]

Thanks @avdhulst !
I don't have gps access

You can get a free 2 week trial with fleetmon, that's what I have. I won't post the link here, since the last time I posted a link it got removed, but it should be easy to Google.

 

[Mr Miserable]

THEMIS is alongside Shanghai at present and she should depart to Zeebrugge soon. There are several versions of her itinerary knocking around and so I can't be sure whether she willl route via Piraeus and Livorno or not but she should arrive in Zeebrugge around 13 - 15 Nov. I'm not ruling her out from carrying some Teslas but I doubt if she is filled with them. One to watch and a flurry of VIN allocations in the coming days would be confirmation that she is carrying.
I don't expect any RHD to be onboard.

 

[Abernus]

THEMIS is alongside Shanghai at present and she should depart to Zeebrugge soon. There are several versions of her itinerary knocking around and so I can't be sure whether she willl route via Piraeus and Livorno or not but she should arrive in Zeebrugge around 13 - 15 Nov. I'm not ruling her out from carrying some Teslas but I doubt if she is filled with them. One to watch and a flurry of VIN allocations in the coming days would be confirmation that she is carrying.
I don't expect any RHD to be onboard.

I was getting my hopes up until you posted that you don't think it will have any RHD cars on board. As soon as I get a VIN I will be on the phone asking for shipping names.

 

[NISFAN]

Sorry if I missed this, but approximately how long after a ship docks can you expect the flow of deliveries?

Seems to me as no VIN’s have been released, a mid November is unlikely?

 

[Mr Miserable]

I guess we will see an AIS position update when HELIOS RAY enters the Bering See and Kamchatka peninsula - any prior experience?

Although HELIOS RAY is still showing an ETA of 9 Oct there is little chance of her meeting this. She has about 1200NM left to run which at her present rate will take about 4 days. I think we may be looking at an arrival in Shanghai late next Tuesday or even Wednesday.
We shall see..

PS She's heading for the Tsugaru Straits which separates Japan's main island of Honshu and Hokkaido to the north.

 

[Mr Miserable]

Sorry if I missed this, but approximately how long after a ship docks can you expect the flow of deliveries?

Seems to me as no VIN’s have been released, a mid November is unlikely?

At the end of the day you must remember that we are often just guessing on this thread, sometimes informed guesswork with very accurate detail and sometimes just plain wrong! (not often thankfully)
On the other hand, we have seen time and time again that many of the Tesla reps don't actually know the answers either and they use their background knowledge to pluck dates from the ether.
At the moment I still reckon a mid November delivery is possible. It will require a direct routing ship, good weather and efficient handling but yup, still possible.