2Q 2013 Model S Deliveries Potential Surprise

[DonPedro]

It seems a little late in the quarter to start hiring for a end of quarter push. Does this point to a more permanent increase in production?

I think it must be, which makes this quite explosive news. It means that they are adding a production shift about 5 months earlier than they had planned. That in turn should mean:

1. They are über-confident in the demand
2. They are going to deliver some 5-6.000 more cars this year than guided

I just sold some puts and bought some calls.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Is there anyway to see when that was posted? The wayback machine doesn't archive those pages.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...rice-Movements?p=361324&viewfull=1#post361324

 

[twinklejet]

Wow 565 open job positions! Tesla has come a long way from IPO..

 

[DaveT]

Wow 565 open job positions! Tesla has come a long way from IPO..

I also was surprised by the number of job openings. I remember looking at their job section on their site several months ago and I think the number of job openings was under 50 (if I recall correctly). 560+ jobs open is great. Means they're expanding like crazy.

 

[J in MN]

Interesting. That's reduces that big gap to under 500. When did you get your VIN, and correspondingly your car?

2013-05-31. I updated my post in the delivery thread with some corrections.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

11711 -> 12061: 350

Not that it really helps too much in that range, but a friend of mine is taking delivery of VIN 12060 this Saturday, 6/15.

 

[DrDave]

I think it must be, which makes this quite explosive news. It means that they are adding a production shift about 5 months earlier than they had planned.

Tesla is adding a 3rd shift now?

 

[DJ Frustration]

Tesla is adding a 3rd shift now?

I don't think they're adding a third shift. Just examine where the 574 open positions are located. Here's the link to the listings: Careers | Tesla Motors

211 openings in Europe
184 openings in US Service Centers and Stores
78 openings in the Deer Creek HQ
101 openings in the Freemont Factory

To get back to the OT, I think there is still a strong likelihood for a 2Q Deliveries surprise on the + side.

 

[Yuri_G]

Highest VIN is now 14564. I think there has to be some VIN skipping, that's 700 up from the last high number.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...encing/page265?p=361968&viewfull=1#post361968

 

[Palpatine]

Highest VIN is now 14564. I think there has to be some VIN skipping, that's 700 up from the last high number.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...encing/page265?p=361968&viewfull=1#post361968

My VIN was very near 14,100 so they didnt skip 700.
It was assigned two days ago. 6/11.

 

[Eberhard]

Looks like the first batch of european production got the missin VINs

 

[Bgarret]

Looks like the first batch of european production got the missin VINs

Why would you think that any European orders are missing VINs...with one exception, the only VINs I've seen reported from Europe have all been in the 14xxx + range. It looks to me like TESLA got to about 14000 built in Q2 and then started on the European orders.

 

[brianman]

Highest VIN is now 14564. I think there has to be some VIN skipping, that's 700 up from the last high number.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...encing/page265?p=361968&viewfull=1#post361968

"...because surely all 700 VINs preceding it have been reported to owners that are on this forum and would post immediately."

That's a lot of assumptions.

 

[FlasherZ]

Based on 100M delivery of Model S cells from Panasonic (link in battery thread), I can come up with following number of total pack development to get a rough idea on # of Model Ss being built.

100000000 Cells
60% 85kw - 7700 cells
40% 60kw (includes 40kw) - 5600 cells

Calculation shows Tesla built around 14500 cells if no cell is wasted. To be a bit precise, the number should reflect the end of month battery pack tally. Rewind 4-6 weeks and you still get ~13000+ Model S built.

85 kWh pack uses 7,104 if none are wasted. Surely some are rejected as manufacturing variances, but even at 1% we're looking at under 7,200.

 

[Martini]

Based on 100M delivery of Model S cells from Panasonic (link in battery thread), I can come up with following number of total pack development to get a rough idea on # of Model Ss being built.

100000000 Cells
60% 85kw - 7700 cells
40% 60kw (includes 40kw) - 5600 cells

Calculation shows Tesla built around 14500 cells if no cell is wasted. To be a bit precise, the number should reflect the end of month battery pack tally. Rewind 4-6 weeks and you still get ~13000+ Model S built.

Plus stationary packs for SC, plus packs built for Toyota and Mercedes, plus warranty and parts inventory packs for Roadster and MS. Plus research and development. Panasonic data is a weak signal.

 

[brianman]

100000000 Cells
60% 85kw - 7700 cells
40% 60kw (includes 40kw) - 5600 cells

Calculation shows Tesla built around 14500 cells

I think you mean something other than "cells" in the 4th use of the word here.

 

[Yuri_G]

"...because surely all 700 VINs preceding it have been reported to owners that are on this forum and would post immediately."

That's a lot of assumptions.

No, because the highest VIN reported four days ago was in the high 13,000s. 700 cars in four days is far beyond what Tesla has been producing.

 

[pGo]

I meant to say battery packs.

Updated calculations considering 1% bad cells.

7,300.00	60%	85kw		15,479.88
5,200.00	40%	60kw

This method is never going to be precise but would help generate rough estimate. Plus, battery pack generation could happen way beforehand(weeks) than actual production of the cars. Still, the ballpark number suggests there have been 13000+ Model S packs created/used.

 

[brianman]

No, because the highest VIN reported four days ago was in the high 13,000s. 700 cars in four days is far beyond what Tesla has been producing.

And reported VINs and car production rates are both smooth continuous curves that track each other perfectly?

 

[v12 to 12v]

Highest VIN is now 14564. I think there has to be some VIN skipping, that's 700 up from the last high number.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...encing/page265?p=361968&viewfull=1#post361968

I just saw VIN 14285 at TM reported and it is for the EU.