4680 batteries, what is the advantage?

[Msicario]

They're currently quoting 1 month delivery for the US Performance Model Y vs. 6 months for the LR. I suspect that Fremont has either ended all Y production or shifted the remaining batch to export and these March US deliveries will come from Austin. They won't want the hassle of drastically different batteries in the same market so they're delaying LR deliveries to August with the hope that Austin can build all NA Y's by then.

Once China, Germany and Texas are reliably cranking out Model Y's they'll use that space in Fremont to start something interesting with the 3. Or perhaps they've already begun?

What we are all waiting for is the new range & HP specs on this great new 4680 battery on the new MY’s out of Texas.

 

[Msicario]

But if they can’t lower the price across the fleet (produced in Texas vs ca) then they will be their own competition. Yes, eventually once both assembly lines are converted they would have more price flexibility. But those cars coming off the line now (or soon) in Texas will have no advantage to the end user in terms of cost or range.

Good point; Imagine deciding between buying a TY out of Texas (4689) vs a MYP, S, X out of California with the 2170 battery? Without seeing the real difference in Range and HP? and price since the 4680 is cheaper

 

[Oliver’s MX]

Because we make semi-annual Washington - California trips in a 2018 X (range is now 280) , we’re considering buying a MY next year to help ensure we get the 4680’s and what will be the best cast aluminum chassis & structural battery pack on the market. But I agree with everyone else that it sure would be nice to see some range and charging specs as I’m sure the 4680’s will speed up our trip a good 30-45 minutes, maybe even a little more.

And for the record, I’d also like to see Elon publish CT specs & design details because I will not purchase one otherwise. And because my wife is only 5’ tall, sitting behind the wheel, excuse me, yoke, is very important to her because if she can’t drive it then that would be a deal breaker for us. So if the CT is actually going to go into production in 2023 Q1, then Elon needs to be more transparent and less secretive.

 

[MontyFloyd]

So if the CT is actually going to go into production in 2023 Q1, then Elon needs to be more transparent and less secretive.

Don't want to give competition a year to make a better truck.

 

[Effopec]

My guess is they are sitting on a lot of information in order to keep sales of current vehicles moving. Then once introduced, they will likely either software limit the new cars until all with 2170's are delivered, or maybe come out with a "ultra long range" version for more $$. They have to be very careful not to Osborne themselves here. If it's the game changer many think it will be they will need to get them into all models across the board as soon as possible or those without could be deemed obsolete.

 

[Msicario]

My guess is they are sitting on a lot of information in order to keep sales of current vehicles moving. Then once introduced, they will likely either software limit the new cars until all with 2170's are delivered, or maybe come out with a "ultra long range" version for more $$. They have to be very careful not to Osborne themselves here. If it's the game changer many think it will be they will need to get them into all models across the board as soon as possible or those without could be deemed obsolete.

Mr. Peter Rawlinson CEO of Lucid Motors; A British engineer, who worked for Tesla and helped developed the Model S, said that the cheaper 4680 battery is no game changer, but will save Tesla lots of money by having the structural battery packs into the new car frame; Since it will be lighter, it will help increase the power and perhaps increase the range some. No numbers on the new range and HP have been published.

 

[Gauss Guzzler]

Rawlinson is correct. No one has ever wished for a car that accelerates faster, handles better, or costs less.

 

[MontyFloyd]

Mr. Peter Rawlinson CEO of Lucid Motors; A British engineer, who worked for Tesla and helped developed the Model S, said that the cheaper 4680 battery is no game changer, but will save Tesla lots of money by having the structural battery packs into the new car frame; Since it will be lighter, it will help increase the power and perhaps increase the range some. No numbers on the new range and HP have been published.

More and more I think it is the cost that is the entire point, from everything said by Tesla. Musk constantly talks about making fuel tanks as structure (see SpaceX).
I would propose that increased power and range is side benefits.

 

[Msicario]

Rawlinson is correct. No one has ever wished for a car that accelerates faster, handles better, or costs less.

Like the Lucid Air minus the price tag Over 1000 HP and over 500 mile range and handles pretty good too.

 

[MC3OZ]

So what will be the composition of 4680’s… LFP, NCA? Seems like the 4680 videos focus on explaining how good/cheap they are going to be and skip this part. Maybe I’m just missing it.

Iron - LFP.
Manganese - possibly initially NMC, long term I hope LMNO?
High Nickel - Anyone's guess?

Iron is the only one we can predict with any certainty, even then people are guessing if Tesla with make 4680 LFP batteries.

To be fair Tesla also didn't tell us how much Silicon is in the Anode, or if there were any changes to the electrolyte formula.

My guess is they may initially start with a very conservative chemistry like NMC, and make another formulations in low test volume on the pilot line.

Then Tesla may slowly phase in chemistry changes.

It is only when reflecting back on Battery Day that we realise there was a lot we were not told, but they never promised to tell us everything.

 

[StealthP3D]

Like the Lucid Air minus the price tag Over 1000 HP and over 500 mile range and handles pretty good too.

The Tesla Model S Plaid costs less, handles better, is lighter and it's faster. If Tesla thought it needed 500 miles of range, they could put in less than $1000 worth of more batteries and go even further.

 

[Oliver’s MX]

Until the point they need to lower the price for competitive reasons.

Or they will miraculously find a way to increase battery efficiency and unlock incrementally more range via a software update, or two, or three. Just like Tesla has done before.

 

[Jerret]

Sorry for the poor quality of this image, but it represents 4680 battery production in Fremont on 22 January 2022. Green represents good batteries and red is for rejects. As you can see, on that day they had 14 machines running and produced 92% good batteries, including the 82% bad batteries from Machine 212 which I believe was being used that day to train folks from Texas And who will be producing them there in the future.

I was also informed that when this production chart was shared with me a few days ago, that there are over 1 million batteries sitting in a warehouse somewhere waiting to become part of the Model Y structural battery pack Being produced in Texas.

Kudos go out to a close relative of mine, one of the many employees building the 4680’s in Fremont.


View attachment 765001

Maybe take this down until the guy clears it for external use? Wharing something like this would have been a fireable offence in many places I've worked, and it might not be hard to figure out who accessed this data at the time in the screenshot.

 

[Jerret]

Maybe take this down until the guy clears it for external use? Sharing something internal like this is fireable offence in many places I've worked, and it might not be hard to figure out who accessed this data with that timestamp in the image.

 

[Fiver]

You guys are pretty optimistic, I'm guessing they will produce a car that uses less cells, weighs less, has the same range/specs, and will use the added margin to further the company. Then in a few they can increase the number of cells to increase range should they need to. "Same with less."

 

[Rowan256]

Mr. Peter Rawlinson CEO of Lucid Motors; A British engineer, who worked for Tesla and helped developed the Model S, said that the cheaper 4680 battery is no game changer, but will save Tesla lots of money by having the structural battery packs into the new car frame; Since it will be lighter, it will help increase the power and perhaps increase the range some. No numbers on the new range and HP have been published.

I'm affraid that's because Peter Rawlinson doesn't really understand much about the chemics in batteries. It's definetly a gamechanger.

 

[Herb yo Sagues]

But if they can’t lower the price across the fleet (produced in Texas vs ca) then they will be their own competition. Yes, eventually once both assembly lines are converted they would have more price flexibility. But those cars coming off the line now (or soon) in Texas will have no advantage to the end user in terms of cost or range.

In off the theory that they won't keep making Model Ys in California for long. They have enough demand for the Model 3 to fill the Fremont assembly lines and then some, so doing Model Ys there to reduce shipping costs to three west cost would only make sense if the new design was only a few hundred dollars , which most analysts don't think it's the case.

 

[Herb yo Sagues]

But if they can’t lower the price across the fleet (produced in Texas vs ca) then they will be their own competition. Yes, eventually once both assembly lines are converted they would have more price flexibility. But those cars coming off the line now (or soon) in Texas will have no advantage to the end user in terms of cost or range.

I'm fairly confident they won't keep making the Model Y in Fremont. The argument for making them in both places is to save about $300 on average in shipping. The Austin Model Y will not only need better, it will also be cheaper to manufacture to the tune of over $1000 according to the most conservative analysts (some estimates go as high as $3000 cheaper).
Keeping manufacturing of the Y in Fremont once they can make enough in Austin makes no economic sense, harms customer satisfaction, makes engineering, support and service more complicated and complicates parts logistics. Converting Fremont to Model 3 only is the right way (and I know Musk mentioned shipping cost reduction a few times, but I never heard anything that can be univocally interpreted as "we'll keep making them in both locations in different versions indefinitely". I trust his math skills.

 

[Speedr117]

Mr. Peter Rawlinson CEO of Lucid Motors; A British engineer, who worked for Tesla and helped developed the Model S, said that the cheaper 4680 battery is no game changer, but will save Tesla lots of money by having the structural battery packs into the new car frame; Since it will be lighter, it will help increase the power and perhaps increase the range some. No numbers on the new range and HP have been published.

What else could he say? They're a game changer, but since we don't have access to them, we're stuck using the old form factor, with no plans to be able to upgrade? So of course he says "no advantage"...

 

[Mengy]

Mr. Peter Rawlinson CEO of Lucid Motors; A British engineer, who worked for Tesla and helped developed the Model S, said that the cheaper 4680 battery is no game changer

Peter is wrong, the 4680's are a game changer, and anyone who doesn't understand that either aren't paying attention to the details or has an anti-Tesla agenda. Maybe a bit of both?