4680 Battery for Model 3 - when?

[rincewind]

So, after considering a BMW i4 M50 as my next car, I have now driven one and reviewed pretty much all of the available info on it, and decided it's not good enough. So, I'm now back to the Model 3 Performance as the front runner when my lease expires on my current M3P in December 22. I would very much like it to have the 4680 battery form factor, but can't seem to find any info as to when that might be.

Has anyone seen anything about the 4680 appearing in the Model 3 and when that may be?

 

[QuanTim]

I don’t believe Tesla has released any information on whether they will put 4680’s into the Model 3 yet. Seems the focus is on Model Y + 4680 + Structural Pack which is probably why you can’t find any information on it.

It’s possible they plan to do so down the line but I think they will prioritise the Y and CT first so that line could be a long one. There’s also no information on whether they will produce Model 3 at Giga Berlin-Brandenburg, but as I say, if they do, it will probably be a few years away.

I’m hoping Elon gives us a good battery update on Q4 earnings (something like “we’ve nailed down the production, we will produce 4680s in Germany at the beginning of Q2 and placing them into the Model Y” (or something like that) - that will be the best update he could give. Maybe then he will give more information about other products that Berlin will produce. Still lots of unanswered questions but think this will be a good year for Tesla.

 

[Lord Farquad]

Slightly off topic but what didn’t you like about the BMW? The i4 seems to be getting good reviews.

 

[gangzoom]

Given the most advanced car Tesla currently sell is using 18650 format.

The Roadster 2.0/Semi will have the most advanced battery once they are in production.

Everything else is reducing production cost for Tesla.

 

[rincewind]

Slightly off topic but what didn’t you like about the BMW? The i4 seems to be getting good reviews.

It barely managed 180 miles in this. It wasn't particularly cold either.

Having had a test drive of the M50, I am in agreement with the video. The M50 has a better ride and is quieter, and a better finish. However, the Model 3 is by some margin the better drivers car. His comments about the throttle delay are spot on, I found it quite annoying - I love the throttle response in the M3P. Also, once the Tesla is set up the way I want it i.e. sports steering etc, it stays there, unlike the settings in the BMW. The M50 feels a lot bigger, steering feel is completely dead (although it is responsive).

I just wish the Model 3 was a little quieter.

 

[gangzoom]

It barely managed 180 miles in this. It wasn't particularly cold either.

Thats bad......our 4 years+ old X, with 66kWh usable of energy will do 160-170miles in current conditions in a 100-0% run. How have BMW managed to only get 180 miles out of a car with a brand new 80kWh+ battery in a saloon body?? The i3 I thought was suppose to be fairly efficient?

 

[rincewind]

How have BMW managed to only get 180 miles out of a car with a brand new 80kWh+ battery in a saloon body??

It weighs over 2,200kg. That's how. Honestly, I was really interested in the i4 but not now.

The other thing that put me off was BMW's usual game of adding 'extras'. Even the top spec M50 doesn't have traffic aware cruise control. Oh no sir, that only comes as part of the Tech Plus Pack - another £1,900. So to get the same spec effectively as the Tesla, you're looking at £67,000. For 180 miles of range.

 

[JonB]

BMW are still using conventional automotive service approaches, I see. I wonder what the service schedule on the i4 is? Annual, at a cost of £400 I expect, and just to change the cabin filter and top off the washer fluid.

I can't blame them. They have a huge dealer network to support. Yet it seems to me, it's only a matter of time befoire Tesla's disruptive approach takes hold - or so, I hope!

 

[Jason71]

180 miles of range is fine just so long as you have a good charging network........

in its defence I doubt that day of filming they did was typical. I think the jury is still out on the range. Didn't it get an A++ efficiency rating? only car other than the M3 to get one?
weight is a bit high though and I doubt it has the same CD as an M3 with that front. a true highway range comparison is what we need since that is what counts

 

[HenryT]

I know it's all subjective, but I think BMW have completely lost the plot with the hideous grills they are using now.

I could never bring myself to buy one again (I've had 5 in the past,) however good the car was. Looks like it was designed by a nine year old.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

The range in that video is no guide - he even admits as much using the car all day for stop start drives in the freezing cold etc, all known to cripple the range.

The lag is also hard to tell, but I suspect that’s just a software update away from being fixed and they have over the air updates now. All I’m saying is they’re the only two issues I think more info is needed to confirm the points.

I want to know what they’re like, back to back, on a country road blast over undulating roads

 

[HaggisMan]

Have bmw been asleep at the wheel or what? With the i8 and i3 I would have thought they would be up the EV curve now. Seemingly not.
Puzzling one. Makes you wonder if different factions in the company are pulling in different directions.
Next few years will be rather interesting.

 

[rincewind]

The range in that video is no guide - he even admits as much using the car all day for stop start drives in the freezing cold etc, all known to cripple the range.

The lag is also hard to tell, but I suspect that’s just a software update away from being fixed and they have over the air updates now. All I’m saying is they’re the only two issues I think more info is needed to confirm the points.

I want to know what they’re like, back to back, on a country road blast over undulating roads

True, and I do hope that a software update will cure the lag. However, I found that overall it felt a bit ponderous and couldn't hide it's weight. The M3 is much more nimble.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

True, and I do hope that a software update will cure the lag. However, I found that overall it felt a bit ponderous and couldn't hide it's weight. The M3 is much more nimble.

Understood and it’s down to what you prefer. I’ve only a LR with P boost but find the M3 chassis/steering gets a little vague on fast twisty stuff, but it’s a moot point because even if I wanted to get an i4 the delay is forever and even then you can’t configure a reversing camera due to supply issues.

I’d wait until I was sure there Ryzen processor was coming through and what they’re doing with the battery as there’s been a few changes, the battery cell size is the lesser of those things

 

[qwickshot]

I doubt it will any time soon, i expect any new cell production will just go to the new products being launched, semi, cyber truck and giga Berlin(EU model Y). Think more increasing the production volume and not uplifting the spec of the current cars.

I fully expect U.K. cars will continue to come from China as they serve all the other RHD markets.

The new cells might not actually end up in and new range or charging speed even if you get them, they could just keep the general spec of the car the same.

 

[QuanTim]

Just wanted to bump this thread considering Troy's (I guess, still an unconfirmed rumour) Tweet just before the weekend:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1489632160558596098

This is interesting to me because it could mean structural 4680 Model 3's coming out of Giga Berlin within 1.5 to 2.5 years (pure and utter guess from me). I’m particularly interested in range increase and driving dynamics (assuming the structural pack will improve chassis rigidity and possibly mean even better handling!). Plus, if they really are saving on costs with the new form factor at the pack level for the battery and the new casting methods (admittedly still to be proven and seen), then we could see many other enhancements being added such as air-suspension and other goodies as standard? Or perhaps some subtle design iterations on the body (I would love to see more improvements seen on the tail lights for one).

Not trying to create an Osborn effect, just fun to speculate!

 

[Dadawinsk]

Given that Panasonic are only looking at a prototype line for 4680s this year with mass production in 2023, I am not holding out for an imminent upgrade by Tesla. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[pgkevet]

Just wanted to bump this thread considering Troy's (I guess, still an unconfirmed rumour) Tweet just before the weekend:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1489632160558596098

This is interesting to me because it could mean structural 4680 Model 3's coming out of Giga Berlin within 1.5 to 2.5 years (pure and utter guess from me). I’m particularly interested in range increase and driving dynamics (assuming the structural pack will improve chassis rigidity and possibly mean even better handling!). Plus, if they really are saving on costs with the new form factor at the pack level for the battery and the new casting methods (admittedly still to be proven and seen), then we could see many other enhancements being added such as air-suspension and other goodies as standard? Or perhaps some subtle design iterations on the body (I would love to see more improvements seen on the tail lights for one).

Not trying to create an Osborn effect, just fun to speculate!

I would guess that whatever Tesla do will reduce components and simplify assembly - so more likely to take away all your suspension and give you a rubber block than add-back air suspension. And fewer parts mean larger replacement components/costs or more common write-offs.

 

[qwickshot]

I also wouldn’t get too excited either, I doubt we will get Model 3 or Y from Berlin as the rest of the world right hand drive comes from China.

I’d concentrate more on what’s happening there than at Berlin for any U.K. updates.

 

[RagingWhisky]

Just wanted to bump this thread considering Troy's (I guess, still an unconfirmed rumour) Tweet just before the weekend:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1489632160558596098

This is interesting to me because it could mean structural 4680 Model 3's coming out of Giga Berlin within 1.5 to 2.5 years (pure and utter guess from me). I’m particularly interested in range increase and driving dynamics (assuming the structural pack will improve chassis rigidity and possibly mean even better handling!). Plus, if they really are saving on costs with the new form factor at the pack level for the battery and the new casting methods (admittedly still to be proven and seen), then we could see many other enhancements being added such as air-suspension and other goodies as standard? Or perhaps some subtle design iterations on the body (I would love to see more improvements seen on the tail lights for one).

Not trying to create an Osborn effect, just fun to speculate!

Given all the supply constraints they may face if they get 'too fancy, too quick' that late 2023/early 2024 timeline for Model 3 4680's matches my assumption of reality.

Considering the reshift undertaken to reengineer the production lines for the Model S and X when looking at turnarounds for the Plaid, they will likely be wanting to ensure their golden geese (Y/3) aren't negatively impacted if a production line needs to be taken offline to add in the structural packs - hence, redundancy across the U.S. (Texas), China and Germany for those runs - "start with new, add in redundancy to old, replace old to new"

All guess-work, and could surprise, but it's one of the thought processes that made me put in for trade of my 2019 M3 LR to the 2022 M3 LR irrespective of the newer battery packs: There will always be "something" down the line, and if you keep waiting for that 'next thing' you'll end up never getting one in the first place!