4680 on Model Y?

[tlx777]

Hi all!

Apologies if this has already been asked. But I am very new to the EV world and don't have as much knowledge when it comes to Tesla.
I ordered my MYLR towards end of August of this year. It originally had a delivery date range of December - January 2022. It now has changed to January - February.

Any idea or thoughts around if it will include the 4680 batteries that was just confirmed?

Another ignorant question, I'm reading about how the refreshed Model Y will have a single cast, why is this a good thing? Don't people tend to prefer their cars to be heavier versus it being lighter, especially during the cold weather?

 

[MatildaModelY]

Nobody knows anything yet. Only speculation.

 

[labmixz]

In the recent quarterly update for $TSLA they stated that while they expect "samples" to roll off Austin production, those samples would not make it's way to consumers this year. With that being said, I wouldn't expect any 4680's coming from Austin to show up to consumers until end of first quarter 2022 at the earliest, but more realistic to say Q2 2022.

 

[Tam]

...Any idea or thoughts around if it will include the 4680 batteries that was just confirmed?...

If you are around with Tesla long enough, you would realize that Tesla's time is very flexible. More flexible than chewing gum. So I wouldn't time my life based on Tesla's announcement of how soon!

...Model Y will have a single cast, why is this a good thing?...

It simplifies assembly. Fewer parts to assemble means less cost to assemble.

Don't people tend to prefer their cars to be heavier versus it being lighter, especially during the cold weather?

In general, I would want my car as light as possible to decrease energy consumption.

If you are worried about winter, the most effective way to deal with it is to get winter tires, not more weight.

 

[Jschoef]

I bet its mid 2022.

 

[Terminator857]

... will include the 4680 batteries that was just confirmed?

4680 battery talk has been around for a long time. What do you think was just confirmed?

... refreshed Model Y will have a single cast, why is this a good thing? ...

Will improve quality with fewer parts. Also lowers cost. Additionally Model Y's are set to get structural battery pack which should again reduce costs and lower weight.

Unlikely people receiving vehicle in January will get vehicles from Giga Texas. Schedule is first cars built end of year and deliveries in small quantity start next year. Will be interesting if Fremont factory makes the same changes that are scheduled for Giga Texas. Will be exciting when we get confirmation on upgrades in 2022 Model Y.

 

[Clark_Kent]

Nobody knows anything yet. Only speculation.

Yep, but it never seems to stop people from asking or speculating though. Why do people care so much about the single casting? Who cares if it streamlines production and lowers costs for Tesla. They won't slash prices because the vehicles are cheaper to manufacture. In fact, the prices will continue to go up to increase profit margins.

 

[Ogre]

Seems unlikely.

In the earnings call they suggested they likely won’t be delivering any cars from Texas until 2022. Even once they start up the cars with the new body/ structural battery, it’s only going to be around 1000 per week versus… 5000+ per week coming out of Fremont.

It seem like Tesla is going to just quietly slip some cars with the 4680s into their production with similar specs to their existing numbers So it’s possible you won’t know until you actually get your car delivered. There might be some hint when you get your VIN.

 

[ecarfan]

Yep, but it never seems to stop people from asking or speculating though. Why do people care so much about the single casting? Who cares if it streamlines production and lowers costs for Tesla. They won't slash prices because the vehicles are cheaper to manufacture. In fact, the prices will continue to go up to increase profit margins.

Agreed. As long as demand outpaces production capacity, things that Tesla does to reduce manufacturing costs will not be reflected in the sales price. Which as a long time shareholder I fully support.

The single piece rear and front castings aren’t something that makes any difference to the owner experience. But they are undeniably cool in terms of a technical accomplishment.

 

[mrwug]

Why do people care so much about the single casting?

Better tolerances than assembly of dozens of sub-components.

 

[Ogre]

4680 battery talk has been around for a long time. What do you think was just confirmed?

In the earnings call Tesla suggested Tera Texas was going to start production using their 4680 cells.

As far as I know that would be the first vehicle Tesla’s shipped with those cells.

The single piece rear and front castings aren’t something that makes any difference to the owner experience. But they are undeniably cool in terms of a technical accomplishment.

Sort of like how the first vehicles which used laser welding machines are now highly sought after collectibles?

Hmm maybe not.

 

[Ogre]

We don’t know if the “new” Model Ys will be lighter. They might ship with LFP batteries which eliminate the weight savings from the castings and the 4680 cells. Tesla has said they are going to prefer using the LFP cells over nickel where it’s possible.

 

[Stook02ss]

In the recent quarterly update for $TSLA they stated that while they expect "samples" to roll off Austin production, those samples would not make it's way to consumers this year. With that being said, I wouldn't expect any 4680's coming from Austin to show up to consumers until end of first quarter 2022 at the earliest, but more realistic to say Q2 2022.

This.

 

[tangible1]

If you are around with Tesla long enough, you would realize that Tesla's time is very flexible. More flexible than chewing gum. So I wouldn't time my life based on Tesla's announcement of how soon!


It simplifies assembly. Fewer parts to assemble means less cost to assemble.




In general, I would want my car as light as possible to decrease energy consumption.

If you are worried about winter, the most effective way to deal with it is to get winter tires, not more weight.

MY will NOT have a single casting. There will be TWO MEGACASTS. One front + one rear cast part, and a structural battery pack that ties it all together.
The new chassis will weigh about 10% less than the current builds. This is due to fewer/less battery weight (same KWh), and aluminum casts vs steel pieces.
That 440lbs less weight = better range, better handling, better performance.
New chassis will have better dimensional consistency, meaning body panel gaps, etc will be better managed during assembly.
The tolerance stack of multiple welded steel pieces that the castings replace is much worse than the variances in the castings.

Tesla timeframe to get all this? Elon time !!!! ;-)
All is ready except the 4680 batteries. The manufacturing process still hasn't met the yield goals to make them profitably. Close, but not yet.
The key indicator will be the stacks of front castings outdoors on the lot in Fremont. When those start to decline, it's game on.

 

[TyID]

MY will NOT have a single casting. There will be TWO MEGACASTS. One front + one rear cast part, and a structural battery pack that ties it all together.
The new chassis will weigh about 10% less than the current builds. This is due to fewer/less battery weight (same KWh), and aluminum casts vs steel pieces.
That 440lbs less weight = better range, better handling, better performance.
New chassis will have better dimensional consistency, meaning body panel gaps, etc will be better managed during assembly.
The tolerance stack of multiple welded steel pieces that the castings replace is much worse than the variances in the castings.

Tesla timeframe to get all this? Elon time !!!! ;-)
All is ready except the 4680 batteries. The manufacturing process still hasn't met the yield goals to make them profitably. Close, but not yet.
The key indicator will be the stacks of front castings outdoors on the lot in Fremont. When those start to decline, it's game on.

I have a MYLR with an EDD of July 22. I live in Idaho, but my pickup location is Utah. I’ve read that the Austin plant will only ship to the eastern states while Fremont/Kato will ship to my location. Is that true? If true, what are my chances of my MYLR having 4680? Will Fremont implement the change after Austin?

I paid an extra $1.5k for paint in order to get it here by July instead of November. I’d actually prefer a base paint, but didn’t want to wait. Paint isn’t a huge deal for me, but now I’m wondering if I should cancel my order for the $250, get my preferred paint and save the difference, and have a better chance of getting the 4680…

 

[Tam]

...better chance of getting the 4680…

I wouldn't want to bet on an uncertainty.

 

[benboy12]

I have a MYLR with an EDD of July 22. I live in Idaho, but my pickup location is Utah. I’ve read that the Austin plant will only ship to the eastern states while Fremont/Kato will ship to my location. Is that true? If true, what are my chances of my MYLR having 4680? Will Fremont implement the change after Austin?

I paid an extra $1.5k for paint in order to get it here by July instead of November. I’d actually prefer a base paint, but didn’t want to wait. Paint isn’t a huge deal for me, but now I’m wondering if I should cancel my order for the $250, get my preferred paint and save the difference, and have a better chance of getting the 4680…

Pretty sure you can edit things like color without giving up your $250 order fee.

I have the base color (white) and am thinking of paying for a color (red catches my eye but also interested in seeing if we get some of the new colors that are supposedly coming to Berlin).

 

[Unclepaul]

Most of the benefits of castings and 4680 batteries will be to the company, not so much to the customer.

 

[rlzalusky]

I think I would be a little nervous at getting something new like the 4680 in the first 6 months of release. If there are problems they might take the car back and it will have to wait for design fixes and supply chain materials.

 

[Ogre]

Most of the benefits of castings and 4680 batteries will be to the company, not so much to the customer.

The castings shave 100 pounds off the vehicle weight the battery pack another 300-400 pounds.

That is definitely going to improve your performance and handling a bit. There is also potential for faster charging.

The big problem is how you ensure you actually get one of the new ones at this point in the game when even after production starts 4 out of 5 Model Ys will be from Fremont.