Sounds like a recipe for stagflation to me... since the higher interest rates aren’t a natural process of a growing economy.
also, who is gonna buy the bonds?
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$50,000+ car while economy in freefall
- Thread starter steinbej
- Start date
Sounds like a recipe for stagflation to me... since the higher interest rates aren’t a natural process of a growing economy.
also, who is gonna buy the bonds?
Dr. J
Active Member
A large buyer exiting the market for Treasury bonds would, all else equal, drive yields up and prices down. The result would be increased costs to US taxpayers for debt service (i.e., higher interest expense). That is inevitable anyway, due to the $2+ trillion addition to the national debt, though you might get a double whammy if China refused to purchase T bonds. Who's paying for it? Every generation after the Boomers.
I don't think it will cause inflation. Probably more likely to cause a lessening of future economic growth--maybe instead of 2.3% growth we get just below 2%. I'm sure there are economists who have guesstimated this.
United States GDP Annual Growth Rate | 1948-2019 Data | 2020-2022 Forecast
Dr. J
Active Member
Treasury auctions are generally oversubscribed by 2x or 3x. Somebody is buying them, and those somebodies will continue doing so, even if they demand higher yields (i.e. buy at lower prices).
I'm no economist but I can't see how we'll avoid a major recession this year (one that goes beyond the initial shock recession). If all the restrictions ended right now I think the negative impulse could be absorbed without a huge impact ... but everyone I've talked to says that their companies are looking at May/June before things begin to return to normal. The $2.2T package is approximately 1/10th of the US GDP, so it looks like the Feds are expecting at least a month shutdown.
The lasting impression of 2008-2009 was how we had a liquidity shock in Sep/Oct and then a relentless grind down to the bottom in Mar'09. We've had the initial shock, will that be followed by a grind downwards? I don't know.
The lasting impression of 2008-2009 was how we had a liquidity shock in Sep/Oct and then a relentless grind down to the bottom in Mar'09. We've had the initial shock, will that be followed by a grind downwards? I don't know.
China has no money for anything, they have a huge of amount of debt due in September. Let's see how they are going to get enough money together to pay them.
Sure we printed a lot of money, but guess what. Everyone wants USD! You don't have to believe me, just look at the exchange from this past month. If Trump gets re-elected and China pisses him off some more, it wouldn't surprise me if the US will just freeze China's assets. A few Chinese officials went online and started spreading rumors that the US started this mess, their ambassador had to apologize on TV to cover for their mess. You think China has it together? They are barely holding on at this point, I can't wait to see them burn.
FredMertz
Member
They can't just stop buying the debt. They're not doing us a favor. Watch the video at the link below.
Why China Buys U.S. Debt With Treasury Bonds
Anyone posting with the word “folks” in the post is a TSLAQ carebear flag for me. Such great concern for those out of work by NOT buying something new that is built in the US.
Dr. J
Active Member
Hey! I tried to tell them.
34 responses to a first time FUD poster? This forum has lost its cynicism.
Edit: Checks OP. Yep, still only the one post.
This is Putin-like. Throw down a firecracker and watch everybody scramble. 
Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
OP is just posting his thoughts regarding taking delivery of a long sought expensive car during the current challenging times.
While some get defensive about it (me included) perhaps he is just posting what many of us have been thinking.
While the virus is changing much about how we look at things, life still goes on.
Yesterday I needed to take an essential trip. Instead of blasting down the freeway, I elected to take some of the magnificant back roads we have here in San Diego. That choice did me a world of good as I became engaged on the curving roads through beautiful scenery. Many trees are in full bud, the crocus and other early blooming flowers are beginning to show. People are moving at a slower pace. The air seem somehow cleaner and sweeter smelling than I remembered.
By the time I got to my destination I was more relaxed. Stress was significantly reduced and my attitude had taken a significant boost.
It all came back to me as I put on my N95 mask, surgical gloves and entered the rhelm of 6' Social Distancing.
Took a different, but equally enjoyable back road coming home and felt refreshed and forced myself to not turn on the TV for a while.
In a nutshell, glad I have my Tesla. It gives me great pleasure. More pleasure than I would get from having that money back in my bank.
Totally understand that others are looking for additional financial security as well as stocking up on toilet paper. If putting off taking delivery of your new Tesla will give additional comfort, then that is a good alternative as well.
While some get defensive about it (me included) perhaps he is just posting what many of us have been thinking.
While the virus is changing much about how we look at things, life still goes on.
Yesterday I needed to take an essential trip. Instead of blasting down the freeway, I elected to take some of the magnificant back roads we have here in San Diego. That choice did me a world of good as I became engaged on the curving roads through beautiful scenery. Many trees are in full bud, the crocus and other early blooming flowers are beginning to show. People are moving at a slower pace. The air seem somehow cleaner and sweeter smelling than I remembered.
By the time I got to my destination I was more relaxed. Stress was significantly reduced and my attitude had taken a significant boost.
It all came back to me as I put on my N95 mask, surgical gloves and entered the rhelm of 6' Social Distancing.
Took a different, but equally enjoyable back road coming home and felt refreshed and forced myself to not turn on the TV for a while.
In a nutshell, glad I have my Tesla. It gives me great pleasure. More pleasure than I would get from having that money back in my bank.
Totally understand that others are looking for additional financial security as well as stocking up on toilet paper. If putting off taking delivery of your new Tesla will give additional comfort, then that is a good alternative as well.
rxlawdude
Active Member
Why would you need social distancing after donning an N95 mask and surgical gloves? Just curious.
Hey! I tried to tell them.
Edit: Checks OP. Yep, still only the one post.
I didn't post just to toss a firecracker and let it go boom. For years I've followed these forums via the twice-weekly(?) email digests. Not like me to check in regularly. I'm kinda busy with everything else in life.
No, it's just that I don't get notifications for every reply so I had no idea that there were 105 or so replies waiting. Since TMC seems to be year after year of shop talk about features, software updates, Tesla customer service frustrations, and "woo-hoo, I got my car" posts, I didn't know whether there would be any discussion from my unusual post.
As I've waded through all the replies, many are thoughtful -- thanks! But many have devolved into political sniping. I didn't anticipate that would happen, but I guess I could have if I'd thought enough about it. Sorry for instigating a politics flame war. This place is best for talking Tesla cars, not screaming at each other across the political divide.
I don't think my purchase or delay of a $50,000 car is going to have a big patriotic impact on the economic disaster that has begun. Yes, I know about the multiplier effect from high school economics. But that $50k is gonna go somewhere no matter what. If I don't spend it on a Tesla Model Y right now, I'll spend it down when I don't get paid for a while on local supermarket, local oil changes (you remember those, right?), local take-out, local services, and the local food bank. Can also do patriotic things to support a community in a time of crisis without money, like donating blood.
EV-lutioin
Active Member
LasVegas2019
Member
What if we lived in a world where a Tesla Owners forum kept the topics to owning a Tesla! lol
I have never been on any other car forum where so many topics take off into political and economic commentary! I thought Facebook and Twitter were the places to pontificate on world problems.
I have never been on any other car forum where so many topics take off into political and economic commentary! I thought Facebook and Twitter were the places to pontificate on world problems.
MichaelP90DL
Active Member
Can you imagine what kind of mess this will become when farmers, police, utility workers and medical personnel get sick in massive numbers? Little crowd control, badly understaffed medical centers, unreliable power and water...and food supplies collapsing.
More carebear. You either wanted it or you didn’t. You either have the money or you don’t. If you are trading the money off for something else like food, you didn’t have the money in the first place. When I got my Model 3 I did not stop eating.
Moderator Note: 36 posts moved to Politics. Many were collateral damage because they were merely quoting a post that was moved. It's a long chain (and not easy work) and I apologize to those who had good thoughts moved away. The good news is you can find your post and copy/paste important stuff back into the thread - nothing is deleted.
Please do keep 6' away from others as you copy and paste, though. I appear to be the only one here wearing a mask.
Please do keep 6' away from others as you copy and paste, though. I appear to be the only one here wearing a mask.
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