500 mi range S-X after Battery Day...?

[JohnSnowNW]

If the S/X battery pack has been redesigned to use the 2170 format, I think it's rather likely that we'd see a 450+ Model S, and ~400 mile Model X.

Of course, this will be nothing compared to the super batteries that Nikola is promising reveal this year /s

 

[AMPd]

My ICE Lexus LS supposedly gets close to 600 miles of range on the freeway but I've never driven it nom-stop until empty. I think 400-miles is plenty good enough for all practical purposes. I'd like to see more Superchargers and still faster charging to tackle overcrowded stations rather than 500-mile range. At some point, you'll need to stop to charge and it sucks as Supercharger stations fill up with the growing popularity of Teslas -- a double-edged sword. We want Tesla to grow and expand but then you deal with greater demand at Supercharger locations.

A 500 mile range would be around 400 in real world driving, even less in winter weather.

 

[AMPd]

I don't get it. Driving even 400 miles at 80 mph is FIVE hours. Oh, sure, jump off at a rest stop and hit the outhouse, but yes, you'll need to switch drivers. As if that would happen. So you're talking ten hour days of driving. This is ridiculous. Who goes more than 500 miles more than once or twice a year, to then demand they NEED a 400 or 500 mile range. This is not realistic. Why do gas burners only go about 300 miles on a "charge"? Because five hours without a break is asking for death and disaster.

Probably because they’re trying to balance between interior space and fuel tank capacity. Has absolutely nothing to do with making you stop more often during a trip.

 

[ngng]

I don't get it. Driving even 400 miles at 80 mph is FIVE hours. Oh, sure, jump off at a rest stop and hit the outhouse, but yes, you'll need to switch drivers. As if that would happen. So you're talking ten hour days of driving. This is ridiculous. Who goes more than 500 miles more than once or twice a year, to then demand they NEED a 400 or 500 mile range. This is not realistic. Why do gas burners only go about 300 miles on a "charge"? Because five hours without a break is asking for death and disaster.

comparing "300 mile range" to bio break a disingenuous argument. i have 600 something miles in my truck. doesn't mean I'm going to drive 600 miles (though I did run through a full tank coming back from texas once). having been stuck in snowstorms where there is no way in/out I've never thought, "man, I wish I had less fuel"

 

[ngng]

A 500 mile range would be around 400 in real world driving, even less in winter weather.

yeah esp in CA. avg speed is easily 80ish. I get passed all the time doing 75 in the right lane. once you get on I5 or 101 the speeds go way up

 

[whitex]

If the S/X battery pack has been redesigned to use the 2170 format, I think it's rather likely that we'd see a 450+ Model S, and ~400 mile Model X.

If that is in fact the case, I wonder if the battery warranty will also drop to 100K miles from current S/X 150K miles to match the Model 3 battery warranty.

 

[BlindPass]

If that is in fact the case, I wonder if the battery warranty will also drop to 100K miles from current S/X 150K miles to match the Model 3 battery warranty.

Likely already has been “clarified”, in the event you need it.

 

[DBV1]

I don't get it. Driving even 400 miles at 80 mph is FIVE hours. Oh, sure, jump off at a rest stop and hit the outhouse, but yes, you'll need to switch drivers. As if that would happen. So you're talking ten hour days of driving. This is ridiculous. Who goes more than 500 miles more than once or twice a year, to then demand they NEED a 400 or 500 mile range. This is not realistic. Why do gas burners only go about 300 miles on a "charge"? Because five hours without a break is asking for death and disaster.

Like, I said, I don’t mind a 5 minute stop for bathroom break, but I certainly dislike a 30 minute plus stop when going on a 400 mile trip. I usually only stop once and no I don’t switch drivers either. I travel a lot and more range is always better, as it also gives you more flexibility in charging points too. My current BMW 530 easily goes 550 miles on one tank of gas. Just nice know I have that much on the tank and also takes about 3 minutes to fill up.

So, for me, absolutely more range is better and especially because the quoted range with Tesla is unrealistic when driving 80 miles an hour and having AC on in the summer or heat, heated seated, heated steering wheel on in the winter. In my BMW 530xi it still is close to what I always get with all those on. So, yes more real range is most definitely important and so are quicker chargers too, unless someone just drives locally all the time, which I do not..

 

[ohmman]

I think most everyone wants a longer range vehicle. If they started selling the Model S and X today for the same price but with 1000 miles of range, of course it would sell insanely well. The hitch in that is the "same price" bit. Saying that it would be nice to have a longer range vehicle is pretty much stating the obvious.

Tesla has to balance the range with the price. Because if they release that 500 mile Model S for $180k base, a lot of people will be thinking, "you know, 400 miles is really plenty." Not everyone, mind you, but probably enough that the 500 mile version won't be viable, especially if it's got a different pack design, suspension (for weight), and who knows what else.

This is why the increases are more likely to be incremental. Small changes in design that can be applied to the entire line are more scalable and financially more viable. The exceptions would have to be some major breakthroughs in cell technology or in motor efficiency.

 

[tpoltron]

Years ago Elon or Staubel said batteries are improving about 7% a year if I remember correctly. The cells in the Model S have not changed since the 90 came out (as the jump to 100 was from better packaging). 1.07^5 = 1.4 so a 500 mile Model S with the same size/weight battery seems quite feasible.

I’d happily take that as our 2014 S85 charges to 250 miles but I get stressed trying to get to a SC 146 miles away with a couple bikes on the back while keeping up with traffic at 80mph. Real world range you can depend on without thinking about bikes, snow or headwinds is only 60% of rated.

 

[mswlogo]

People keep talking like you actually get 400 miles out of a EV rated 400 miles.

You don’t run them to 0% nor typically charge to 100%. 90% down to 20% is more typical. Now you’re down to 280 miles.

Does anyone drive in the Winter here?

Now your down to 196 miles (another 30% hit)

That assumes you don’t go over 65mph, good weather and no extra load. And run efficient tires/wheels.

I’ll take 600 miles “range“ in a heart beat.

 

[DBV1]

Totally agree with the below. That is what I keep trying to say. More range is always better. 600 miles would be awesome!

People keep talking like you actually get 400 miles out of a EV rated 400 miles.

You don’t run them to 0% nor typically charge to 100%. 90% down to 20% is more typical. Now you’re down to 280 miles.

Does anyone drive in the Winter here?

Now your down to 196 miles (another 30% hit)

That assumes you don’t go over 65mph, good weather and no extra load. And run efficient tires/wheels.

I’ll take 600 miles “range“ in a heart beat.

 

[EVortex]

400, 500, 600, more? Point is, the range continues to increase over time and there will always be reasons why some might think it will never be enough (speed, weather, wheel size, tires, heater, AC, etc.), but I think range at these levels would be awesome and would help more people feel comfortable about making the transition from ICE to EV.

 

[Big Toys]

Tesla needs a battery with 400+ miles so that it can get @300 -325 miles at 80 MPH (which is what people are accustomed to with a gas engine), and still leave room for a bathroom break and battery degradation over time.

 

[msm859]

People keep talking like you actually get 400 miles out of a EV rated 400 miles.

You don’t run them to 0% nor typically charge to 100%. 90% down to 20% is more typical. Now you’re down to 280 miles.

Does anyone drive in the Winter here?

Now your down to 196 miles (another 30% hit)

That assumes you don’t go over 65mph, good weather and no extra load. And run efficient tires/wheels.

I’ll take 600 miles “range“ in a heart beat.

Exactly! And you need to add that on a trip you will only want to charge to 80% because it is too slow after that. Thus, 400 mile range to start only gives you maybe 320 miles minus the 50 left when you stop thus 270 actual miles and then you will recharge to 80% - 320 miles that will give you @ 250 miles minus the 50 leaving in so on a trip you get 270 + 200 or 470 miles with a one stop trip. I would like to be able to go 500+ miles with one stop. Thus, actually need a "rated" 450 mile range.

 

[Tesomega]

I would like to have a battery that does not degrade at least for the first five years the car is brand new... all those gimmicks for range numbers are useless....

 

[whitex]

I think most everyone wants a longer range vehicle. If they started selling the Model S and X today for the same price but with 1000 miles of range, of course it would sell insanely well. The hitch in that is the "same price" bit. Saying that it would be nice to have a longer range vehicle is pretty much stating the obvious.

Tesla has to balance the range with the price. Because if they release that 500 mile Model S for $180k base, a lot of people will be thinking, "you know, 400 miles is really plenty." Not everyone, mind you, but probably enough that the 500 mile version won't be viable, especially if it's got a different pack design, suspension (for weight), and who knows what else.

This is why the increases are more likely to be incremental. Small changes in design that can be applied to the entire line are more scalable and financially more viable. The exceptions would have to be some major breakthroughs in cell technology or in motor efficiency.

Exactly, you never ask the customer whether they want a feature or improvement. You ask them if they are willing to pay for it, and how much.

 

[Battpower]

Perhaps they will roll out the beginning of a battery upgrade plan. Would be very welcome.

Might help them avoid a regulatory smack down vis-à-vis batterygate.

Even though I'm not effectected directly by the 'gates', it says a lot about Tesla both commercially, technically and morally how the capping issue gets resolved, and for me it should be top of battery day agenda.

What's the point of more extreme promises if the warranty and ethics aren't there to back them up? What's the point of (esp free) Supercharging if in reality you are just bringing on early demise of your battery? Without a binding 'battery condition indicator' ALL cars will suffer at resale due to buyer uncertainty and uncertain warranty cover for battery.

It's like the rush to ever higher CPU speeds back in the single core days where buyers latched onto that as a measure of performance, when all that happen was that memory had multiple wait-states added because it couldn't keep up. End result was little if any performance boost but less reliable systems. Just like adding more and more weight in the name of getting a higher range number for marketing purposes potentially puts more stress the rest of the car with minimal net gain.

I hope that there is an equal push for longevity with open disclosure and transparent warranty as well as option for longer range for those that really need it.

 

[David_Cary]

Exactly! And you need to add that on a trip you will only want to charge to 80% because it is too slow after that. Thus, 400 mile range to start only gives you maybe 320 miles minus the 50 left when you stop thus 270 actual miles and then you will recharge to 80% - 320 miles that will give you @ 250 miles minus the 50 leaving in so on a trip you get 270 + 200 or 470 miles with a one stop trip. I would like to be able to go 500+ miles with one stop. Thus, actually need a "rated" 450 mile range.

You should probably clarify something here. When you start a trip, you are at 100% but you seem to think you would start at 80%. That small difference and now you are at 550 miles with a one stop trip. That is a pretty long trip but everyone is different.

In the Model 3 world, we chose to spend $4k to go from 250 to 325. Partly because my Model S is a 70D and down to about 220. So the Model 3 was going to be our long range car. Especially with the much faster supercharging. We would not have paid another $4k to get to 400. (well maybe)

If we could assume higher pricing for the S and that a 400 miles S costs $75k, I think you would have buyers for a 500 mile S at $85k. I think that is fairly reasonable ask. You would still likely sell more 400 mile versions but the take rate would be reasonable. And then of course, the P would be the 500 mile battery and be that much faster.

There is a 200 pound weight difference between the 70D and 100D so I would predict that it could be done for another 200 pounds. Worked into a refresh and no suspension changes needed.

If I was planning a refresh, I would shoot to use 2170 and get the range to 500. I would also hope to keep overall weight the same. Personally, I would not need the 500 and would consider a "short" range option in the mid 300s.

Having lived with a 220 car and a 325 car for a combined 100k, I have very little use for a 325+ car. A use for sure but very little and not worth thousands.

 

[Battpower]

Having lived with a 220 car and a 325 car for a combined 100k, I have very little use for a 325+ car. A use for sure but very little and not worth thousands.

I think that could be said for a majority of owners. Of course you will be encouraged to think you need 'more'. I mean, we all need 'more'! But if you couldn't have more, would what IS available work adequately? A broad feeling that more is neccessary just fuels pointless premature obselesence.