60KWH roll-in - B5 theory: they won't do it til after Jan1

[Darmok]

First post on TMC Forums. Enjoying the wealth of information here and appreciate how well its organized. Looking forward to hearing good news for 2013 60kw deliveries. I was given a window of march/april from a Tesla Rep over the phone.

...anxiously awaiting P3831. Garage is ready!

@giants, welcome. Will your S have active air suspension and be a color other than red? If so, as P5265 I sure hope you get your car well before April!

 

[giants2001]

@giants, welcome. Will your S have active air suspension and be a color other than red? If so, as P5265 I sure hope you get your car well before April!

Blue w/black leather
Obeche matte
Pano
Tech
Active air
Sound

 

[CyberDutchie]

Assuming the 60s begin to roll off on February 1st we will also need to know how many 60s were reserved for the first 3000 or so general production. A good percentage of what is posted on this forum is from 85s. However, not everyone who has a reservation posts. My guess is about 1000 of those are 60 kWh. Based on that, I will have 500+ 60s before my vehicle rolls off (not factoring in air suspension).

I think well over half of general production (P) reservations are 60kWh.

Reason is simple, they're aiming for 3000 deliveries total this quarter (upper-end of the last estimate given). Of those, 1000 are Sigs, that leaves 2000 P reservations to deliver in 2012. They are having to go all the way up to ~P12000 to find 85kWh reservations and ask them to take delivery in 2012.

 

[Iz]

I think well over half of general production (P) reservations are 60kWh.

Reason is simple, they're aiming for 3000 deliveries total this quarter (upper-end of the last estimate given). Of those, 1000 are Sigs, that leaves 2000 P reservations to deliver in 2012. They are having to go all the way up to ~P12000 to find 85kWh reservations and ask them to take delivery in 2012.

Good point. It would be interesting to know the exact distribution. We will probably have more 60 kWh related postings in the next several months.

 

[rlpm]

They had to go to ~P12000 for perf or 85kWh w/air suspension, and not red paint, correct?
And we don't really know how many people deferred, canceled, or haven't yet finalized. That's a lot of variables.
But it wouldn't surprise me if the distribution of those that have finalized is about 25% perf, 25% 85kWh non-perf, 40% 60kWh, 10% 40kWh.

 

[gregincal]

I think well over half of general production (P) reservations are 60kWh.

Reason is simple, they're aiming for 3000 deliveries total this quarter (upper-end of the last estimate given). Of those, 1000 are Sigs, that leaves 2000 P reservations to deliver in 2012. They are having to go all the way up to ~P12000 to find 85kWh reservations and ask them to take delivery in 2012.

And you assume the skipped cars are 60s, rather than 40s, red cars or standard suspension.

 

[Brian H]

Good point. It would be interesting to know the exact distribution. We will probably have more 60 kWh related postings in the next several months.

Elon's initial projection was that 60 sales would dominate, but the early indications suggested the 85s were over half of the total. That was probably 'sampling error', though.