9/29 2017 IAC - Elon: Interplanetary Plans Pt. 2

[Cosmacelf]

I agree Grendal, but as we all know, there is a lot more than space lift required for a Lunar or Martian colony. Apart from space lift, it seems that SpaceX will work on technologies for a Martian colony as opposed to technologies for a Lunar one. There may be considerable overlap, of course.

What I’ve heard as SpaceX’s ultimate goal, is to be the 21st century equivalent of the giant (and giantly profitable) East India Trading company. An asteroid mining colony? No problem, we’ll get you there!

 

[Jeffrey joe]

I think a space station on the Moon would be beneficial for many reasons. One reason is that a launch to continue on to Mars would take much less fuel since leaving it's gravity isn't as difficult. That vehicle can be even larger and load up many more supplies for the 8 - 10 month trip to Mars. I think one oversight is the human factor of living on Mars. I think the science is all there but some overzealous humans just might not be as fit for isolation and confinement as they think they are. A Moon quarantine might identify those who need to return to earth before the totally loose it. Similar data should be retrieved from the Navy's submariners. The Moon can be resupplied many more times a month acting as a reserve of supplies or store of sorts. Many might just want to make a living running the Moon station because they can return to earth occasionally for vacation. Just my thoughts. jp

 

[abasile]

II think one oversight is the human factor of living on Mars. I think the science is all there but some overzealous humans just might not be as fit for isolation and confinement as they think they are.

I agree that would-be Mars settlers and sojourners will need to be screened carefully, particularly in the early years when the community on Mars is very small. As the community grows to the size of a small town, the isolation should hopefully become less of an issue, though it'll still be a factor even when Mars has a million residents.

Personally, though, I'm glad that so many people seem willing to travel or move to Mars because I currently have no interest in going myself and I'd rather experience Mars through others' experiences. The travel time is too long and the confinement to man-made structures seems too limiting. Perhaps I'd re-consider if it were possible to undertake outdoor activities on Mars in a safe manner, with sufficient protection from radiation.

It would be awesome if a spacesuit could be constructed that would enable mountain biking and hiking on Mars trails, for instance. Mars has plenty of interesting topography. However, the need to minimize radiation exposure could be a real hindrance to frequent outdoor activity, and there'd probably be too many mobility restrictions with a suit on. It would be easier to go hiking or biking in the winter in the "dry valleys" of Antarctica.

 

[Cosmacelf]

You know, it might make more sense for older geezers to make the first few trips to Mars. They have less of their lives to risk, have more experience, less likely to have bad judgement, probably be able to withstand the boredom better. Just a random thought...

 

[Jeffrey joe]

I like it. I am that older geezer. If they sent up a bunch of construction equipment up first I could keep myself busy putting it all together. My kids are off to college soon and will no longer need Dad.

I would want an electric dirt bike and an RV with life support systems for a bit longer than the stationary living quarters. I gotta see what is just over that ridge.

I still think we should have a subterranean community up at Sparks NV as a larger experiment. Folks there should be restricted from external interaction but still working at the Giga Factory in clean rooms. Breathing recirculated and filtered air as well as water and limited or specified nutrition to simulate the environment on Mars. One major thing that needs to be worked out is how that community is governed. My input would be via a formal blog like this one we are on now but with mandatory voting for even the smaller rules and regulations on how we would interact with each other. We cant have clicks and gangs forming and creating dissention among the population.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I still think we should have a subterranean community up at Sparks NV as a larger experiment. Folks there should be restricted from external interaction but still working at the Giga Factory in clean rooms. Breathing recirculated and filtered air as well as water and limited or specified nutrition to simulate the environment on Mars. One major thing that needs to be worked out is how that community is governed. My input would be via a formal blog like this one we are on now but with mandatory voting for even the smaller rules and regulations on how we would interact with each other. We cant have clicks and gangs forming and creating dissention among the population.

Great idea. Actually, NASA's already on it:

A NASA-funded, year-long experiment in Hawaii to mimic life on Mars has come to an end

But I think the NASA mission was only to test social isolation. I don't think they had actual technology to recycle air and water. I could be wrong...

 

[Grendal]

Vice President Pence Hosts the First Meeting of the National Space Council

Gwynne has the Secretary of Transportation loving the Earth to Earth transport concept. 1:45

 

[Jeffrey joe]

Thanks. I enjoy those experiments. They all seem to be human failures, not technical. Like the Bio Dome and the mars 1 experiment. I think there will be new discoveries with a much larger group. Another factor seems to be they are limited to a year. In that time the crew would have just landed on mars. Imagine finally landing there after a long 10 month trip and looking out the window and not being able to get out right away. Sort of like the long trip to the keys from St Louis. Once we reached Florida we cheered, only to be disappointed to sit in the car for another 8 - 10 hours, or how ever long it was. As kids it was forever after seeing the Welcome to Florida sign.

I think Sparks NV presents several opportunities. Those who have volunteered will still work as you would on Mars, but in an isolated part of the Giga Factory. If the community were under ground it would simulate confinement stress as in outer space. It would also be a large scale test on living spaces on Earth after a mega volcano or a meteorite causes unlivable environment on the surface. Just the logistics of subterranean living needs some refining. How much square footage does a person really need? How should common areas be designed. Then the food: what type of food and how much? How much control or dictated diet should there be? Not rationing but eating only what we need and not be gluttonous like here on Earth. Health concerns and such should also be addressed in more detail. So much to learn and I think we are getting behind. jp

 

[Skotty]

I could go for some social isolation. Sounds good. I'm an avid indoorsman too.

The biggest entertainment issue on Mars that might prevent me from being happy there is that most computer games now require internet even when they are single player, and we know that won't work.

An internet connection needs to be set up, along with perhaps a new protocol for handling extreme latency between worlds. At first, would probably just have to be a read only type of thing unless doing single transaction stuff like sending email. Would take time to develop all of the necessary systems to handle interworld internet communications, but might be fun to develop.

To feel comfortable at home on Mars, I think the "home" pods would need to be overbuilt so people would feel safe when at home when not working. Like double pressure vessel barriers with good warning systems if anything seems out of norm. For example, you might have the main area in your home pod as one pressure vessel, and a small bedroom that serves as a second pressure vessel. At night, you could retreat to your bedroom to read a book, play a game, watch some TV, and sleep with double pressure barriers. Bedroom would need to be able to store emergency pressure suit as well.

And tacos. Don't care what it takes. There needs to be tacos. I can eat tacos 365 days a year and be happy about it. Definitely tacos. Doesn't have to have meat in it, can substitute mushrooms or some other foodlike stuff that vegetarians use as meat substitute. That concession I would make. But there has to be tacos. Not negotiable. Must be at least once every 2 weeks. But if it's efficient to make me eat them every single day, I'm game.

A robot cat or dog would also be nice. Maybe a live gerbil or hampster.

Okay, done speculating on what would make me feel comfortable there.

 

[EchoDelta]

And how many homeless and disadvantaged could be helped and/or rescued with the billions of dollars frittered away in space?

I wanted to share my perspective - unsolicited- as someone who works closely with poverty, refugees, etc. globally; because it is an important question.
When I take a broader perspective, I imagine our global budget: the one or two trillion that go into warfare, the billions that are accumulated as profits every year through extractives, pharma, and/or many unsustainable or ethically iffy businesses, billions spent on massively inefficient aid schemes that fritter away money in the 'last mile' to the disadvantaged, and so on. In this context, Space - an endeavor that mostly has brought about benefits to earth so far, tangible and intangible, is a drop in the global bucket...if we were to magically be able to reallocate resources: is it the right bucket to take from first? Also there is a factor respecting the agency/freedom of those with resources, who decides? I'd posit those spending in space industry are (on average) accelerating global welfare more than a lot of other ways of spending money.

Also, exploration (and the inevitable growth, in my opinion, of us as a civilization that will come with expanded time & space horizons), is in my mind, part of the global culture we must aspire to. Getting out of poverty is a means, but what is the end? Arts, personal growth, happier & healthier lives, spirituality, exploration...? the late Hans Rosling many years ago had a good wrap up of a talk on this matter: New insights on poverty. (see min 14)
While I worked supporting NGOs in SE Asia I flew High-Altitude Balloons (the helium balloons with camera that go to 110k feet) as a program with kids in Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar. Each launch was a few hundred bucks and the stuff was executed by the children with adult support (each launch entailed many logistical and regulatory conundrums). True, those $ would have floated a family or two out of desperate poverty for a few months, maybe. But we inspired hundreds of boys and girls to reach out, push their perceptions about their limits, meet like minded doers, and be unafraid to push forward. These days we need all the reminders we can of what we can do as a species when we're at our best.

Hope you find this useful as you find your answers to your questions

/sorry for the offtopic, feel free to move but I think this 'nagging feeling' from Chet is a valid one, that deserves introspection to delve into the topic with integrity.

 

[Grendal]

I think a space station on the Moon would be beneficial for many reasons. One reason is that a launch to continue on to Mars would take much less fuel since leaving it's gravity isn't as difficult. That vehicle can be even larger and load up many more supplies for the 8 - 10 month trip to Mars.

A boost from orbit and zero gravity will always beat a boost into and out of a gravity well. Even one as weak as the Moons and Mars gravity. The Moon has the benefit and negative of not having an atmosphere. The Mars atmosphere allows for atmospheric braking since BFS will have had a big boost from orbit just to get to Mars. It can't afford the fuel to do a powered braking maneuver but will use the atmosphere to do most of the braking and only a small boost for landing. Elon played a simulation of this in the IAC presentation. The key to a successful trip to Mars or the Moon with BFR is in orbit refueling. Elon also showed how BFR, after an in orbit refueling, could make a trip to the Moon, land, still have enough fuel to boost back to Earth and still make a powered landing. Even with a complete refuel on the Moon, the boost out of the Moons gravity well would prevent a full payload from reaching Mars and landing, I think.

 

[Electroman]

Last year, in Guadalajara, Elon said that "People would die" and, during Q&A, that he, himself, would not make the trip. It would be a great message if he committed personally.

Cheap shot !

 

[ecarfan]

You know, it might make more sense for older geezers to make the first few trips to Mars. They have less of their lives to risk, have more experience, less likely to have bad judgement, probably be able to withstand the boredom better. Just a random thought...

Sounds good to me. By the time SpaceX is sending crewed missions to Mars on a regular basis I will qualify as an "old geezer"!

 

[Nikxice]

And tacos. Don't care what it takes. There needs to be tacos. I can eat tacos 365 days a year and be happy about it. Definitely tacos.

Might just be onto something. Harvesting the methane and oxygen produced from all those 'taco parties' could help to fuel some thirsty Martian Raptors.

 

[dhanson865]

Vice President Pence Hosts the First Meeting of the National Space Council

Gwynne has the Secretary of Transportation loving the Earth to Earth transport concept. 1:45

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[Grendal]

404 not found

Ah-ha. Interesting, the White House dropped the replay.

Here is the YouTube copy of the Space Council meeting:

Gwynne is introduced and speaks at 56:00 in this video.
The Secretary of Transportation loves SpaceX at 1:15:00.

 

[e-FTW]

Sounds good to me. By the time SpaceX is sending crewed missions to Mars on a regular basis I will qualify as an "old geezer"!

And older folks, by the virtue of being older and having slower multiplying cells, would be less at risk of radiation-caused cancer, or less affected by it.

 

[Grendal]

Maybe, but my guess is that will start later next year. Elon is going to push that project really hard -- like he always does -- because he wants to send two BRS to Mars five years from now. There is going to have to some test flights before that happens: we know that the first test flight will be suborbital and then there will have to be some launches to LEO and back before the Mars missions. So BFR assembly needs to start ASAP. Starting in 2019 seems too late to me. But I'm only guessing!

I realize that in his presentation Elon said the 2022 Mars mission timeframe was "aspirational". It may well slip to 2024. It seems almost impossible to imagine that, starting in 2017 from just a set of plans, a test of a huge carbon fiber LOX tank, and a sub-scale Raptor engine with 1,200 seconds of test firing time, that in five years SpaceX could build, flight test, and launch to Mars two BFRs. But I wouldn't bet against it happening...

I moved my response over to this thread since it is more appropriate here.

I think we're in agreement. We're probably quibbling over the terminology rather than the larger picture. Right now, SpaceX is probably spending less than 5% of capabilities on BFR/BFS. I expect that to continue, which is a focus on developing the core subsystems, until SpaceX has finished on their current important projects: Block 5, Falcon Heavy, repairs to SLC-40, upgrade of LC-39A, and Commercial Crew. Those projects should maintain their focus until the middle of next year. Once those are shown to be working successfully then I can see a slow shift of resources over to BFR/BFS. The first steps will need to be solidifying that the core subsystems as working. Raptor needs to be completed in its initial testing and the finalized motor design complete. Without a Raptor engine that is being manufactured for use then BFR going nowhere. So Raptor manufacturing needs to begin. SpaceX currently builds one Merlin engine every other day. BFR needs 31 of the Raptor. BFS needs six of them. That's a significant amount of engines compared to the F9. A good first step is making one Raptor engine a week with something like 25% of your engine assembly people's time.

Doing it that way should give SpaceX enough Raptors to start on their first BFR/BFS by mid-2019. Let's say that SpaceX can do 24 launches of the F9 next year and maintain that pace into the future. If all of those are Block 5 with fully reusable boosters then SpaceX should have a stable of 20 to 25 F9 boosters always ready to go by the same time period of mid-2019. SpaceX could then focus at least 50% of their workforce on BFR/BFS. The only thing the rest need to do for F9 is make second stages, Dragon 2's, and a rare new booster.

That's about as far as I can project my guesses. One of the more interesting aspects to this is what Gwynne Shotwell mentioned, that the lead time for new aerospace equipment is a year. So they need to start ordering the new equipment right now and I'm not sure the company has finalized the designs enough to allow for that.