About time to unveil the D and something else

[TEG]

After reading every post on this thread, there is a solid consensus that an all wheel drive Model S will be announced.
If so, what are your thoughts as to its performance capabilities?
Could it be one of the safer, longer tire wearing, but slower models in the line up?
Or is it a given that it's 0-60 times will be at least as good as a P85+?

I am guessing it will be the highest performance variation in the line-up. ($$$)
I wonder if they will offer a pack with more than 85kWh to go along with it?

 

[brianman]

Since you seem to prefer the full quote, I'll stick with that for now but underline the parts I'm actually responding to...

Okay, brianman, but what you WERE talking about was that Tesla was treating attendees differently than others. So breaking apart my response to that statement kind of destroys the context.

(a) "Not a democracy" means they don't have to treat attendees and non-attendees exactly the same. (b) Attendees have taken the time and spent the money to get there. And yes, it does take some more time and money than others to get there. Do I wish I lived next door? Heck yes! I just spent over $500 to get down there for Thursday night and rearranged some plans. Plus I'll need to get a house sitter for the evening. I'm sure my evening is much cheaper than it will be for others. (a) But it's not a democracy. (c) I don't expect it to be the same for each of us. And they have not traditionally treated every group of people exactly the same. Roadster owners, heavy investors, etc. have all had different perks. (d) But it doesn't mean other people have missed out. (e) So saying things like 'Tesla is getting full of itself' seems a bit overly dramatic & (f) I suspect it's just because it's an inconvenient time for you to attend.

(a) To me, "democracy" refers to a form of government. You might be referring to an aspect of democracy but not the noun itself. Hence my confusion.
Democracy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(b) Again, "pay to win" / "pay to get an early spot in the line". Some take issue with that in a lot of arenas. I tend to find it concerning in this case.
(c) And there's the aspect you're getting at. That charateristic of democracy, or at least what it attempts, not democracy itself. You could have said "this isn't a random drawing from a bucket" and captured the same characteristic.
(d) And here we agree on the fact, but disagree on the import. I think it's a problem for the company as it matures beyond niche. You don't seem to find it to be a problem, and it's fine that we see it differently.
(e) Let's be clear. I didn't say that. I chose my words intentionally. Reread (below). I'm talking about public perception, especially given how much the spotlight shines on Tesla these days -- both for earned and unearned reasons.

That's one of my concerns, frankly, is that Tesla comes across a bit "full of itself" by treating attendees differently from others.

(f) You're close to right. It's never a convenient time for me to attend an event on < week's notice -- and that's assuming I'm actually invited, which I haven't been in this case. And that's more my point: Getting a good spot in line shouldn't be intimately tied to whether you happen to have opportunity, flexibility and inclination to follow the whim of Tesla scheduling and logistics.


I'm sure there's a good number of people on the forum (and off) that would have been willing to put forward a refundable deposit $5k to get a spot in line for an AWD Model S back in 2012. Perhaps Tesla should consider allowing people to do such things.

Speaking for myself, I'd put down $5K (perhaps more) on Model 3 today if Tesla would let me. Instead I have to hope I'll get invited, that I can attend, that I don't get sick, etc. whenever they decide to announce it -- and it could be on Thursday for all we really know.

 

[bonnie]

I am guessing it will be the highest performance variation in the line-up. ($$$)
I wonder if they will offer a pack with more than 85kWh to go along with it?

I like your thinking.

- - - Updated - - -

So out of respect for this thread and out of pity for the people on this forum, not going to respond point by point, brianman. Sometimes it's best to just understand the point being made. And I think you understand mine. I didn't capitalize 'democracy'. I used a common definition that I think any casual reader fully understood, including you. I'm not going to go all pedantic on you. So no response.

Sorry you can't make it.

 

[brianman]

Sometimes it's best to just understand the point being made. And I think you understand mine.

So I should grant your points but you won't grant mine, nor even address them.

Well that was a big waste of my time.

 

[bonnie]

No. You don't have to grant anything. I just refuse to derail this thread further.

 

[brianman]

@Brian: As an S owner you still might be placed ahead of others in the production sequence.

I don't think that will mean all that much. 100k+ S and X combined owners is a pretty big "ahead" group.

 

[tezco]

Well, I didn't get the invite either (but like Brian, my schedule is already filled). It's not about democracy--it's all about marketing hype. The way you get a huge crowd is by throwing out a bit of swag....in this case, get closer to the head of the line if you show up.

 

[brianman]

I am guessing it will be the highest performance variation in the line-up. ($$$)

The fastest Tesla vehicle to reach the acceleration limiter.

 

[AlMc]

Getting back on topic: Bonnie, and others.....What do you put as percentage chance of seeing the following at the event?

Mine AWD S: 99.9%
DA 99.9%
X beta: 30%
prototype model 3 10%

 

[Omer]

From a Tesla perspective sure, but it's not like travel and time are "free" generally speaking.

That's one of my concerns, frankly, is that Tesla comes across a bit "full of itself" by treating attendees differently from others. In addition to the (in some cases) "Sig tax" there's vacation time tax, travel tax, hotel tax, etc. to buy your way to the front of the line. In video games, people go nuts about "pay to win" as being unfair, etc.

What's the big deal? There's 2 possibilities;

1. AWD is an add-on option to any Model S (i doubt this), in which case anyone with a current order that has not been finalized can choose the option so there already is a couple months wait because of the current back-order but production is moving very quickly. If this is the case, you could just place a non-finalized reservation the morning of the event for a regular Model S and if AWD is not available drop the reservation the next morning.

2. AWD is not available on regular Model S but rather is exclusive to the new "D", a very high end super car quality Model S retailing in the $150k - $180k range. This has been rumored by several sources with AWD not being available on regular Model S. The marketing build up "reveal the D" and the garage half open as if a sinister world beating super car is about to be unleashed certainly give the impression this will be the case. If this happens current reservation holders would not be in front of you. However, the number of orders for a $150k+ Model S the night of the event will probably not be significant relative to the current production rate so at most you would get your car a week or two later by ordering the next morning. With such a high margin Model S, I'm sure the factory would prioritize those orders. Waiting an extra week to get a $150k+ car can't possibly be that big a deal.

 

[Tasdevil]

It would be cool if the ModelX was revealed and 3 of them drove out with no one in the car.
(Yes I know on the road you need someone in the seat, but for the demo they could bypass that)

 

[bonnie]

Getting back on topic: Bonnie, and others.....What do you put as percentage chance of seeing the following at the event?

Mine AWD S: 99.9%
DA 99.9%
X beta: 30%
prototype model 3 10%

I gave my answer a while back: About time to unveil the D and something else - Page 61

 

[JRP3]

The fastest Tesla vehicle to reach the acceleration limiter.

is still the fastest Tesla.

 

[brianman]

What's the big deal?

I was speaking generally about Tesla's approach with S, X, (perhaps with D), etc.

I'm not in the hunt for a D so I'm somewhat uninterested in what they choose to do beyond the general trend.

However, the number of orders for a $150k+ Model S the night of the event will probably not be significant relative to the current production rate so at most you would get your car a week or two later by ordering the next morning.

I'm quite confident this won't be the case for Model 3 and beyond.

- - - Updated - - -

is still the fastest Tesla.

Debatable. We had some discussion at Laguna Seca regarding 85s actually seeming faster than P85s because they hit the (overly conservative?) limiter more quickly and the limiter is "sticky" so once you're there it's hard to shake it off. Also, it's an open question if the general tuning of the limiter across models (60, 85, P85, P85+) actually differs at the software/firmware level. Since Tesla had said (to my knowledge) nothing on the subject there's a lot to analyze and consider.

That said, my point was more about being the fastest to reach the first step of the stairs isn't really interesting when you have a 1000 mile climb from there.

Hopefully Tesla has invested at least some time in trying to address this problem (the acceleration limiter) at the product design level. So far, at least publicly, it seems like they simply don't care.

 

[Omer]

I'm quite confident this won't be the case for Model 3 and beyond.

I agree, and if I knew they would open model 3 reservations at this event I would strongly consider going. But you also need to remember that everyyhing is proportional so even though there may be far more orders for something like model 3 the night of a reveal, the production rate would also be significantly greater. Overall I don't think being at a reveal will ever yield much more than a week head start relative to just being aware and ready the next day.

BTW, Bonnie-

Do you happen to know approximately how many signature X orders with checks were placed the night of the X reveal?

 

[bonnie]

BTW, Bonnie-

Do you happen to know approximately how many signature X orders with checks were placed the night of the X reveal?

I don't remember - but the easiest way to figure it out is to ask some of the X Signature holders who forgot their checkbooks and had to wire money over - I think they were in the very low hundreds on Friday when reservations opened up, but not sure. I bet some will speak up and give us some real data.

 

[hockeythug]

Sorry if this was posted before:

Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) will make its first foray toward automated driving with a suite of new high-tech features including one that can keep the car in its lane, said a person familiar with the carmaker’s plans.The new capabilities will be revealed at an announcement scheduled for next week, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the details aren’t public. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk on Oct. 1 posted on Twitter that the electric-car maker will “unveil the D and something else” and included a photo of a darkly lit Tesla and the date Oct. 9.
Tesla, maker of the Model S luxury sedan, is adding electronic features that help drive the car, reducing the strain of traffic congestion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-03/tesla-said-to-add-popular-automated-driving-functions.html

 

[tezco]

We had some discussion at Laguna Seca regarding 85s actually seeming faster than P85s because they hit the (overly conservative?) limiter more quickly and the limiter is "sticky" so once you're there it's hard to shake it off. Also, it's an open question if the general tuning of the limiter across models (60, 85, P85, P85+) actually differs at the software/firmware level. Since Tesla had said (to my knowledge) nothing on the subject there's a lot to analyze and consider.

Once a P85 hits the limiter, is the limit set at the same kW as on a limited non-P?

 

[Seattle]

From a Tesla perspective sure, but it's not like travel and time are "free" generally speaking.

That's one of my concerns, frankly, is that Tesla comes across a bit "full of itself" by treating attendees differently from others. In addition to the (in some cases) "Sig tax" there's vacation time tax, travel tax, hotel tax, etc. to buy your way to the front of the line. In video games, people go nuts about "pay to win" as being unfair, etc.

All that extra Tesla tax is covered by the federal and (possible) state tax rebates! :wink: You are actually stealing if you don't go to these events

That being said, I would guess that the presumed dual motor version of the car is not a new model and that existing people would come first and have a chance to buy it. I really just want an excuse to go, waste a day of work and 1000 bucks. First world problems. If they had it on a weekend facing day, it would be a lot easier, mr musk. You could even combine this with a career fare at SpaceX and Tesla! Both companies I thought of interviewing with when I left my last job. Space X looks cool but you have to live in LA. Open the Seattle office and I'm there

Certainly Tesla has mastered the exciting reveal like no other company. Apple used to have it but now has little new to offer.

 

[huntjo]

It's probably good I'm on call that day and that swapping with a partner less than a week before is difficult at best. Otherwise I'd be tempted to accept the invitation though it looks like plane tickets are fairly expensive at this point.