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About time to unveil the D and something else
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This should be on a Saturday!Oh well. Everyone have fun. Think this will be an awesome event.
For what it's worth, the Battery Swap event last year was also on a Thursday night
I for one, am asking the question, and marketing, mystery was my first thought. But I think it's more than that - we'll see next week.I love all of the overanalysis in this forum. "Why is the door only partway up?"
Here's why: It's mysterious. It's marketing. It's not because they're hiding something on the top half of the car.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I just hope the event is on YouTube the following day
I hope Tesla, or someone else, does a live feed! I for sure will stay up (middle of the night here)
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
In-wheel motor challenges
The SLS E-Cell prototype (the yellow one) did indeed have such motors, but the "production" version AMG Electric Drive does not as you can see below:
and it's got to do with non suspended weight.
In other words, the motors are too heavy to incorporate inside the wheel that you want to keep as light as possible...
The SLS E-Cell prototype (the yellow one) did indeed have such motors, but the "production" version AMG Electric Drive does not as you can see below:
and it's got to do with non suspended weight.
In other words, the motors are too heavy to incorporate inside the wheel that you want to keep as light as possible...
MartinAustin
Active Member
Here is a refined projection of what they will show.
1) Model S “D” with dual-motor all-wheel drive and various other enhancements. There will be other tweaks to the suspension and other parts to help the AWD system as well as simply benefiting from further engineering time to enhance the design of the car. These tweaks would be similar to what they did for the P85+. New wheels are a possibility. Yes the car will have all the latest driver assistance features Tesla has been recently introducing, but those will only be discussed in passing since they’re not revolutionary; Tesla has in fact been playing catchup with the rest of the industry on driver assistance.
a. We will see videos of the car in action, both in snowy/icy climates, and also on the runway as recorded September 19[SUP]th[/SUP] (that is why the badged car was out in the wild on that day… footage is now edited)
b. A necessary part of the car is the new battery size – 110KWh. This uses the latest, more dense 18650 batteries, and is the only battery option available for “D” as the acceleration requires the extra current that this battery can produce. (I dearly hope there is a retrofit dual-motor solution for folks like me, without the searing acceleration, which I don’t need – but I don’t think this will be announced)
c. 60KWh, 85Kwh and 110Kwh will be the three battery sizes available for Model S going forwards. The new battery increases the range of the “D” to 390 miles when driven at 55mph/level ground/sea level, or 340 miles per the EPA scale.
d. Base price of the 110KWh battery car will be $89,950 + delivery due to an additional $10K over the price of the 85KWh option, but if you want Performance or “D” over that… keep going up. Prices will be announced at this event. Web site will be updated to show the “D” and it will be orderable. Checkbook-wielding attendees can get into the reservation line first.
IMO there will be no Model S price drops announced yet, even though they would be welcome. With a 3-6 month wait for cars around the world, there is simply no reason whatsoever to drop prices. However I think this will definitely happen if/when the waiting list declines to a shorter time (either by production increasing, or demand becoming satiated) I can see the base price of the car falling by $1,000 in steady steps. Passing the 200,000 car mark in the USA may play a role in deciding the timeframe of this as Tesla will exhaust the federal tax credit. (unless the government decides to continue it! unlikely)
2) Model X Alpha/Beta versions. Tesla was producing the Alpha versions a week after the Earnings Report, around August 7[SUP]th[/SUP]; that is two months ago. By October 9[SUP]th[/SUP] there’s a good chance it will be the first Beta units. There will be ten cars on show, to showcase the various interior and exterior paint colours they’re intending to offer, including the Signature colour. (could be wrong about the exterior, if the Model X colours rely on the new paint facility, which isn’t online yet) Sadly, since this will be a nighttime event, people won’t get to see the colours out in daylight. I want to think that Tesla will offer a future testdrive event for the Model X, but can’t imagine them sending out invites again for reservation holders – that said, I do not think this October 9[SUP]th[/SUP] event will include a test-drive, as the car isn’t final enough. Conundrum
a. IMO the Model X will not be offered with the 60KWh battery – only the 85 and 110 batteries.
b. The preview web site for the Model X will be launched, however, it won’t contain a complete list of options, or pricing, which Tesla won’t announce until next year.
c. Model X will be shown with and without side mirrors.
d. Attendees will be able to climb in and out of the Model X and operate the doors… just not turn on the car. In fact I’m minded to think the displays won’t show a lot at all.
e. There will be some discussion of the autopilot capabilities, but I think they will stay away from too much detail, preferring to reveal it later.
3) IMO there will be no mention of the Model 3, except perhaps a sentence or two about Gigafactory construction.
4) Roadster 400-mile battery? Haven’t made my mind up about whether they’ll discuss this… probably not.
1) Model S “D” with dual-motor all-wheel drive and various other enhancements. There will be other tweaks to the suspension and other parts to help the AWD system as well as simply benefiting from further engineering time to enhance the design of the car. These tweaks would be similar to what they did for the P85+. New wheels are a possibility. Yes the car will have all the latest driver assistance features Tesla has been recently introducing, but those will only be discussed in passing since they’re not revolutionary; Tesla has in fact been playing catchup with the rest of the industry on driver assistance.
a. We will see videos of the car in action, both in snowy/icy climates, and also on the runway as recorded September 19[SUP]th[/SUP] (that is why the badged car was out in the wild on that day… footage is now edited)
b. A necessary part of the car is the new battery size – 110KWh. This uses the latest, more dense 18650 batteries, and is the only battery option available for “D” as the acceleration requires the extra current that this battery can produce. (I dearly hope there is a retrofit dual-motor solution for folks like me, without the searing acceleration, which I don’t need – but I don’t think this will be announced)
c. 60KWh, 85Kwh and 110Kwh will be the three battery sizes available for Model S going forwards. The new battery increases the range of the “D” to 390 miles when driven at 55mph/level ground/sea level, or 340 miles per the EPA scale.
d. Base price of the 110KWh battery car will be $89,950 + delivery due to an additional $10K over the price of the 85KWh option, but if you want Performance or “D” over that… keep going up. Prices will be announced at this event. Web site will be updated to show the “D” and it will be orderable. Checkbook-wielding attendees can get into the reservation line first.
IMO there will be no Model S price drops announced yet, even though they would be welcome. With a 3-6 month wait for cars around the world, there is simply no reason whatsoever to drop prices. However I think this will definitely happen if/when the waiting list declines to a shorter time (either by production increasing, or demand becoming satiated) I can see the base price of the car falling by $1,000 in steady steps. Passing the 200,000 car mark in the USA may play a role in deciding the timeframe of this as Tesla will exhaust the federal tax credit. (unless the government decides to continue it! unlikely)
2) Model X Alpha/Beta versions. Tesla was producing the Alpha versions a week after the Earnings Report, around August 7[SUP]th[/SUP]; that is two months ago. By October 9[SUP]th[/SUP] there’s a good chance it will be the first Beta units. There will be ten cars on show, to showcase the various interior and exterior paint colours they’re intending to offer, including the Signature colour. (could be wrong about the exterior, if the Model X colours rely on the new paint facility, which isn’t online yet) Sadly, since this will be a nighttime event, people won’t get to see the colours out in daylight. I want to think that Tesla will offer a future testdrive event for the Model X, but can’t imagine them sending out invites again for reservation holders – that said, I do not think this October 9[SUP]th[/SUP] event will include a test-drive, as the car isn’t final enough. Conundrum
a. IMO the Model X will not be offered with the 60KWh battery – only the 85 and 110 batteries.
b. The preview web site for the Model X will be launched, however, it won’t contain a complete list of options, or pricing, which Tesla won’t announce until next year.
c. Model X will be shown with and without side mirrors.
d. Attendees will be able to climb in and out of the Model X and operate the doors… just not turn on the car. In fact I’m minded to think the displays won’t show a lot at all.
e. There will be some discussion of the autopilot capabilities, but I think they will stay away from too much detail, preferring to reveal it later.
3) IMO there will be no mention of the Model 3, except perhaps a sentence or two about Gigafactory construction.
4) Roadster 400-mile battery? Haven’t made my mind up about whether they’ll discuss this… probably not.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I didn't realize the "limiter" kicked in during a 0-60 run, which is where the added traction of AWD would make the largest difference, and make the P85D the fastest, or more accurately, the quickest, Tesla. I don't expect the AWD to assist at all in top speed.
Unlikely, since the badged car was "P85D", not "P110D".
MartinAustin
Active Member
Very true. I'm already wrong!!! :|
Perhaps the 110KWh battery will be required only for the blistering acceleration.
Perhaps the 110KWh battery will only be available on the Model X to begin with.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
@MartinAustin
That would be cool.
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Maybe that the 110 KWh battery pack will be announced for production in 2015.
That would be cool.
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Maybe that the 110 KWh battery pack will be announced for production in 2015.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
If it were an announcement of a D, speculations on when they would start to be produced? I'm in the queue for a 85P+ and would definitely change my order, even if it meant waiting a few months. I'm not sure I would wait 6+ months tho...
And in the past how has Tesla handled people in the queue switching models? Thanks!
And in the past how has Tesla handled people in the queue switching models? Thanks!
As I understand it, the power limiter in the Model S is based on a computer model/lookup table for the rotor temperature in the main drive motor, right?
If that's correct, an AWD model S would presumably have a lot more headroom to the limiter since it can direct less power to each drive motor while still delivering the same total power to the road. It would also have twice the cooling potential to recover from the limiter (depending on how different the new motor is, of course.)
Walter
I don't necessarily think that just because the badge says 85 that it might not contain a higher capacity battery. If they were planning on introducing a higher capacity battery, and making a major announcement about it, they wouldn't be badging the cars to give it away in advance.
Earlier in the thread we saw that the "dual motor" option was given away by the VIN form required to identify vehicle configuration. michiganmodles found this:
ftp://ftp.nhtsa.dot.gov/mfrmail/org9130.pdf
For the battery, it only says "Standard" or "High" capacity. And a later post showed the earlier NHTSA form here:
Decoding Tesla Model S VINs
Which has this:
Digit 8, Motor/Drive Unit & Battery Type: C = Base A/C Motor, Tier 2 Battery (31-40kWh)
G = Base A/C Motor, Tier 4 Battery (51-60 kWh)
N = Base A/C Motor, Tier 7 Battery (81-90 kWh)
P = Performance A/C Motor, Tier 7 Battery (81-90 kWh)
So the older form actually specified a range for each of the 3 batteries available at the time, while the newer form only shows High capacity for the 85Kw and Standard capacity for the 60Kw.
I wonder from an NHTSA perspective whether a battery capacity jump would require a new NHTSA form, or if maybe the Standard and High nomenclature in the latest could at some point mean 85Kw and 110Kw? If they had to change the NHTSA form, I would have thought that someone here would have already seen it, like the current form now shows "dual motor".
Maybe for 2015 or later this year, they ratchet up both battery capacities to 85 and 110 via new chemistry? Would that require any new testing if the higher capacity batteries fit in the same volume as the current batteries, but just had better density? It would create a bit of a problem for current reservation holders, unless they allowed current reservation holders to also get the higher capacity packs. Announcing larger battery sizes now if they were not to be available until later would kill sales, and disappoint a lot of current reservation holders.
I would also think that at some point, the batteries will get a higher capacity in the same form factor. The current design is at least 3 years old. Given the dual motor announcement, wouldn't this be as good a time as any like Martin suggested to phase in the higher capacity batteries?
I could totally see the 85 and 110 being standard sizes on the upcoming Model X.
RT
If your vehicle has not gone into production then if the past is any indication TM will let you add the AWD to your configuration. I have had an S deposit down for about 6 months and have asked TM NOT to put it into production as I have been waiting for the AWD option.
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