About time to unveil the D and something else

[Jaff]

HLR brought up the issue of the legality of autonomous driving earlier...to the best of my knowledge, the U. S. Congress has still not ok'd replacing side mirrors with cameras...presumably due to concerns about their reliability, etc...I would think it autonomously driven cars would be a tad more complicated than side "mirror cams"...sure it will eventually happen, but it is a long way off...

 

[Merrill]

Sorry, I just don't get it.

Autonomous, Driver Assist, whatever. I thought we bought this car because it is fun to drive it, and Tesla is the ultimate fun to drive. If I want something (someone) to take over, I might as well take a bus or a cab.

How will the auto-drive features affect that Tesla Grin? Give us something to widen that grin!!

I agree, do not want something else driving this car. I like driving myself like the old days.

 

[Seattle]

There's no doubt that autonomous self-driving cars work well enough for freeway driving. Google has been test driving it for a couple of years as described in wired and many other places, and guess what, no problems. 4 states have approved it, for testing. I believe that Tesla could deliver that now, but it would be a me too kind of thing. Other companies have demoed it too. It's just a matter of time. T could definitely deliver acc (automatic cruise, ie slow down when the car in front of you slows). That's old hat. Same thing for lane following, and speed suggestions. There's no chance they could offer autodrive as a consumer product, meaning the car drives itself as a normal feature. And the sensors are out on new cars. It feels too early to figure out whats needed to real auto-drive. Google thinks they need all those other sensors on top of their car.

Delivering auto-drive as a consumer product relies on legal support (which is basically already there in cali), and testing, and agreement on the needed sensors. The best they could do is say we are now testing it.

It sure looks like they will show AWD S based on all the things people have seen (paris auto show program, and VIN info). I'm amazed they would do that now, well before the X is in widespread production. They just don't need to do that.

I predict: (1) launching drive assist stuff, but not real auto-drive for end users. They will announce they are testing auto-drive. (2) AWD model S, available for ordering now. (3) Beta X will be there. I can't believe they would show the model 3/E now, its just too far off. They have to be careful not to piss off the people waiting on the X forever. Since they don't need to announce the awd S, if I was them I would wait on that. Announce X production beginning next month or something, then in Dec launch AWD S.

I'm ready to get a second S, when they have AWD. My wife even approves Then I could get rid of my audi ski car.

I have some friends from seattle going to the announcement, who were on the X waiting list. I wish I was going. Any chance they will let people jump to the front of the line for AWD Model S? Internet, please tell me yes so I will convince myself to go

 

[stopcrazypp]

Calling it "on-ramp to off-ramp" will lull some drivers into a false sense of security in that they can pay less attention to the road. But just calling it "Driver Assist" should not cause the same confusion.

Maybe because it's not simply "Driver Assist" (which still requires driver control of the vehicle, not just driver awareness).

I think Tesla's solution will be similar to Cadillac's "Super Cruise", in that it will not simply be ACC and/or Lane Keep. It'll have full steering control (not just a small amount of counter-steering assist like most lane keep systems), so it can go around curves by itself. It'll also be able to deal with stop and go traffic. Lane changing will also eventually be added. In other words, it'll be such that the driver does not need to touch any controls at all (not the case with any of the systems today: you still need to control the steering).

So it won't be fully autonomous, but at the same time it won't simply be "Driver Assist".

And I think the "Auto-Pilot" term used by Elon is designed to be contrary to the idea that it is fully autonomous and doesn't need driver attention. The way autopilot in a plane works is that it allows the pilot to take their hands off the controls, but it does NOT mean that the pilot doesn't have to constantly monitor the instruments or the outside conditions.

 

[bonnie]

Any chance they will let people jump to the front of the line for AWD Model S? Internet, please tell me yes so I will convince myself to go

Are you asking "If they introduce the AWD Model S on Thursday night, do you think they will take deposits/reservations from people there at the party?"

If that's what you're asking, then my answer is 'bring your checkbook, because yes, that's what I think they'll do IF they introduce the AWD Model S on Thursday night.'

 

[Seattle]

Are you asking "If they introduce the AWD Model S on Thursday night, do you think they will take deposits/reservations from people there at the party?"

If that's what you're asking, then my answer is 'bring your checkbook, because yes, that's what I think they'll do IF they introduce the AWD Model S on Thursday night.'

Argh, I asked my question poorly and you almost answered the question I had. Is there a good chance that (IF they announce the AWD) & if you come to the event on Thursday that you could pay a deposit there and get an AWD Model S quicker? I expect they will take deposits, but will it let me just the line That would almost be be enough for a trip from not-rainy-today Seattle.

 

[HankLloydRight]

I think Tesla's solution will be similar to Cadillac's "Super Cruise", in that it will not simply be ACC and/or Lane Keep. It'll have full steering control (not just a small amount of counter-steering assist like most lane keep systems), so it can go around curves by itself. It'll also be able to deal with stop and go traffic. Lane changing will also eventually be added. In other words, it'll be such that the driver does not need to touch any controls at all (not the case with any of the systems today: you still need to control the steering).

And I would assert that *any* type of highway driving that allows the driver to take both hands off the wheel is essentially "autonomous" and won't be legal for many many years to come. The technology might be there (although far from mature), but as I've said many times, it's the legal, regulatory, and insurance requirements that will hold it up for years. See: Side mirror cameras.

 

[JohnQ]

I'm ready to get a second S, when they have AWD. My wife even approves Then I could get rid of my audi ski car.

You can pretty much do that today. I went 10 straight weekends last year including an 18" dump over Valentine's Day. Granted, there was never more than 3-4" of snow on the pavement, and the Berkshires/Green Mountains aren't the Cascades, but with snow tires it's remarkable how the standard S handles.

 

[HankLloydRight]

What snow tires?

 

[bonnie]

Argh, I asked my question poorly and you almost answered the question I had. Is there a good chance that (IF they announce the AWD) & if you come to the event on Thursday that you could pay a deposit there and get an AWD Model S quicker? I expect they will take deposits, but will it let me just the line That would almost be be enough for a trip from not-rainy-today Seattle.

Well, you'll be at the front of the line. You won't jump the line, because the line will start when they start taking reservations - meaning, there is no line to jump, you'll be starting it.

So with the X, they took reservations in person at the Thursday night event & didn't open up online reservations until noon the next day (Friday) for people who were not at the event. So the first people getting the Model X are all people who were at the party and had a checkbook with them to make the deposit (because those that had to wire in the money got a later reservation number).

 

[BlueTan85]

Frankly I'd rather have autonomous charging than autonomous driving. I don't mind driving. I'd love to be able to pull into the garage at home and the chargeport opens and some robotic arm reaches out and plugs in the charge plug and systems talk to systems and electrons flow, all while I'm halfway into the kitchen carrying grocery bags.

 

[Todd Burch]

Frankly I'd rather have autonomous charging than autonomous driving. I don't mind driving. I'd love to be able to pull into the garage at home and the chargeport opens and some robotic arm reaches out and plugs in the charge plug and systems talk to systems and electrons flow, all while I'm halfway into the kitchen carrying grocery bags.

If we're going this direction, I'd prefer an autonomous grocery shopper.

I love all of the overanalysis in this forum. "Why is the door only partway up?"

Here's why: It's mysterious. It's marketing. It's not because they're hiding something on the top half of the car.

 

[brianman]

Well, you'll be at the front of the line. You won't jump the line, because the line will start when they start taking reservations - meaning, there is no line to jump, you'll be starting it.

So with the X, they took reservations in person at the Thursday night event & didn't open up online reservations until noon the next day (Friday) for people who were not at the event. So the first people getting the Model X are all people who were at the party and had a checkbook with them to make the deposit (because those that had to wire in the money got a later reservation number).

Not to speak for (the poster with handle) Seattle but...
I suspect that many folks are thinking that holders of "Model S, production" reservations that haven't finalized their configuration might be interested in choosing AWD when it becomes available. If that is the case and Tesla allows it, would those existing today reservations receive a vehicle before or after the first person to offer a check the moment the AWD flavor is announced?

To my knowledge, this case is new in Tesla's history so it's potentially quite interesting to see how they'll play it.

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Frankly I'd rather have autonomous charging than autonomous driving. I don't mind driving. I'd love to be able to pull into the garage at home and the chargeport opens and some robotic arm reaches out and plugs in the charge plug and systems talk to systems and electrons flow, all while I'm halfway into the kitchen carrying grocery bags.

I wouldn't call that autonomous plug/unplug. We already have autonomous charging, unlike some older gas stations that have fuel pumps where you have to nurse it.

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(a) Here's why: It's mysterious. It's marketing. (b) It's not because they're hiding something on the top half of the car.

(a) Agree, almost. I would say "showmanship" not "marketing."
(b) TBD.

 

[bonnie]

Not to speak for (the poster with handle) Seattle but...
I suspect that many folks are thinking that holders of "Model S, production" reservations that haven't finalized their configuration might be interested in choosing AWD when it becomes available. If that is the case and Tesla allows it, would those existing today reservations receive a vehicle before or after the first person to offer a check the moment the AWD flavor is announced?

To my knowledge, this case is new in Tesla's history so it's potentially quite interesting to see how they'll play it.

True enough. Let me put it another way: You don't lose anything by being there in person. By not going, you are betting on the fact that they will not treat this as a separate model line.

 

[brianman]

Let me put it another way: You don't lose anything by being there in person. By not going, you are betting on the fact that they will not treat this as a separate model line.

From a Tesla perspective sure, but it's not like travel and time are "free" generally speaking.

That's one of my concerns, frankly, is that Tesla comes across a bit "full of itself" by treating attendees differently from others. In addition to the (in some cases) "Sig tax" there's vacation time tax, travel tax, hotel tax, etc. to buy your way to the front of the line. In video games, people go nuts about "pay to win" as being unfair, etc.

 

[bonnie]

From a Tesla perspective sure, but it's not like travel and time are "free" generally speaking.

That's one of my concerns, frankly, is that Tesla comes across a bit "full of itself" by treating attendees differently from others.

I missed the part where they said they were a democracy. C'mon. There were plenty of signatures available to everyone. Founder cars are definitely for an elite group that has nothing to do with attendees. Model S signatures went first to Roadster owners. It's been diff criteria every time.

Why get twisted about this?

 

[brianman]

I missed the part where they said they were a democracy.

Totally unclear what this has to do with politics.

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Founder cars are definitely for an elite group that has nothing to do with attendees.

I wasn't talking about Founders cars, that's a whole 'nother kettle of fish.

- - - Updated - - -

Model S signatures went first to Roadster owners.

I wasn't talking about that either.

 

[Beckler]

In the picture, the implication is certainly that the vehicle in the garage is the D, but still, that's just an assumption that everyone is making!

 

[tezco]

@Brian: As an S owner you still might be placed ahead of others in the production sequence.

 

[bonnie]

Okay, brianman, but what you WERE talking about was that Tesla was treating attendees differently than others. So breaking apart my response to that statement kind of destroys the context.

"Not a democracy" means they don't have to treat attendees and non-attendees exactly the same. Attendees have taken the time and spent the money to get there. And yes, it does take some more time and money than others to get there. Do I wish I lived next door? Heck yes! I just spent over $500 to get down there for Thursday night and rearranged some plans. Plus I'll need to get a house sitter for the evening. I'm sure my evening is much cheaper than it will be for others. But it's not a democracy. I don't expect it to be the same for each of us. And they have not traditionally treated every group of people exactly the same. Roadster owners, heavy investors, etc. have all had different perks. But it doesn't mean other people have missed out. So saying things like 'Tesla is getting full of itself' seems a bit overly dramatic & I suspect it's just because it's an inconvenient time for you to attend.