All discussion of Rivian Automotive

[ZachF]

Rivian is now the 118th largest company in the world. The names it has overtaken is like a who's who of famous companies. IBM to name just one. Mad.

Companies ranked by Market Cap - page 2

Airbus, Caterpillar, 3M…

Rivian is only targeting 1m vehicles by 2030, so you’re talking $60-70b in revenue and maybe $6-10b in profit if they execute. So they are trading at 12-20x projected 2030 earnings, which is higher than the market as a whole. That’s higher than Tesla, who I expect to be making $100b+ in annual profits at that time.

 

[Huskyf]

Airbus, Caterpillar, 3M…

Rivian is only targeting 1m vehicles by 2030, so you’re talking $60-70b in revenue and maybe $6-10b in profit if they execute. So they are trading at 12-20x projected 2030 earnings, which is higher than the market as a whole. That’s higher than Tesla, who I expect to be making $100b+ in annual profits at that time.

Yeah AND only vehicules no others think like Tesla (energy, solars pannels, batteries-megapack, powerwall, software, FSD, IA,
And not relay to others business that work with Tesla like Borring Company with Tesla vehicules + solars pannels on stations. or SpaceX use Telsa battteries and Tesla motors for the next Starships ect........

 

[Spacep0d]

I like the Rivian and their mission but there’s a difference to selling $75k+ trucks and ~$50k vehicles profitably and in volume. Does Rivian have a plan to bring electric vehicles to other segments of the market. Amazon and Ford backing Rivian doesn’t mean a whole lot to me. The government backed GM and look where they are today… making EV claims they’ll likely not be able to deliver on.

There's no guarantee, but here's the primary reason I think Rivian will not be left to die on the vine; Bezos has a fierce rivalry with Musk. There's no way he would let Rivian die for any reason.

That said, the proof is in the product and production.

 

[DaveG_NJ]

I do think going the pickup/SUV route was smart for Rivian, but I'm not getting in on the stock at this stage. Once everyone comes out of the ether, it's bound to drop. I'll wait until options start trading to make a play on it as I'm doing with Lucid.

 

[Mengy]

I like Rivian's truck design and I think the company might have a bright future. BUT, the current valuation is ludicrous and they have a LOT of hurdles to get past now on the way to profitability.

I'm waiting a year or two until they have a bunch of quarters reported and under their belt to decide if I want to invest or not. They still need to ramp production, and as we all know, production is HARD.

 

[RobStark]

I like the Rivian and their mission but there’s a difference to selling $75k+ trucks and ~$50k vehicles profitably and in volume. Does Rivian have a plan to bring electric vehicles to other segments of the market. Amazon and Ford backing Rivian doesn’t mean a whole lot to me. The government backed GM and look where they are today… making EV claims they’ll likely not be able to deliver on.

The R1T starts at $67.5k.

No, Rivian has no plans to deliver BEVs to other segments.

They plan to deliver 1M+ $67.5+ trucks from 2 US factories, 1 European factory and 1 Chinese factory by 2030.

There is a very little known law in the US,EU, and China that prohibits Rivian from selling compact and subcompact SUVs and pickups.

That is why investors have poured in over $100B into Rivian.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

RIVN has Jeffery Besos backing him and we know Jeffery Besos has a huge inferiority complex regarding Elon right now. So I feel like Besos will be willing to spend anything to prop RIVN up until a product is shipped and he does happen to have almost $200 billion laying around. So I wouldn't bet against RIVN no matter how many losses they pile up because they have a wealthy benefactor who will give up literally everything to try and beat his imagined enemy.

Interestingly enough, LCID is in a similar situation since they are owned partly by the Saudis. The House of Saud is probably quietly worth multiple trillions but they are good at hiding their wealth, unlike Elon and Besos whose wealth is mandatory public knowledge. So they have unlimited money to spend propping up LCID and as long as Rawlinson doesn't say or do anything stupid and sticks to his plan, he won't be invited to the Saudi Embassy for a one way trip anytime soon no matter how much he loses for the Saudis because they have basically infinity money.

 

[Buckminster]

Besties discuss from 30 mins:

 

[RobStark]

Rivian's 2nd plant most likely to land in Georgia, stock responds

Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN), fresh off of the first deliveries of its R1T all-electric pickup, is set to have its second United States plant land in Georgia. The automaker’s stock responded with a slight increase on Monday morning, bringing its total rise as a publicly-traded company to...

www.teslarati.com

 

[Accident]

RIVN options start trading tomorrow. I know some people have been waiting to lose some money with puts.

 

[H Mak]

Rivian bigger than VW. Seriously?

 

[RobStark]

Rivian bigger than VW. Seriously?

Outside TSLA superfans, most people that follow the market are equally confused by Tesla 7.5x bigger the VW.

 

[juanmedina]

RIVN options start trading tomorrow. I know some people have been waiting to lose some money with puts.

I am selling puts tomorrow lol

 

[bro1999]

Rivian up another ~5% premarket to $156...SP has now increased 100% over the IPO price ($78). Aside from some random bad news headlines (factory issues, production delays, bad reviews etc) or whales suddenly pulling out, is there anything really stopping the stock from continuing to climb before their 1st earnings report (which is when exactly)?

 

[Mengy]

is there anything really stopping the stock from continuing to climb before their 1st earnings report (which is when exactly)?

One of the biggest reasons would be the fundamentals. This RIVN hypetrain is barreling out of control, and at some point this ludicrous valuation will crash, it's only a matter of when the profit taking begins. Anyone buying RIVN at these high prices who misses the crash and gets left holding the bag will very likely be either stuck waiting years until they are in the green OR selling at a loss to pull their money out.

 

[bro1999]

One of the biggest reasons would be the fundamentals. This RIVN hypetrain is barreling out of control, and at some point this ludicrous valuation will crash, it's only a matter of when the profit taking begins. Anyone buying RIVN at these high prices who misses the crash and gets left holding the bag will very likely be either stuck waiting years until they are in the green OR selling at a loss to pull their money out.

I bought it at $100. Have been waiting for the "crash" to buy more, but every time I check it's gone up more. FOMO is in full effect right now.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Outside TSLA superfans, most people that follow the market are equally confused by Tesla 7.5x bigger the VW.

But Tesla's profits in Q3 already equalled those of VW in Q3 (with one growing output by 50-70% per year and the other one declining). But Rivian has virtually no sales and is years away from any profit. Even for the neutral observer the difference should be clear.

 

[mongo]

RIVN has Jeffery Besos backing him and we know Jeffery Besos has a huge inferiority complex regarding Elon right now. So I feel like Besos will be willing to spend anything to prop RIVN up until a product is shipped and he does happen to have almost $200 billion laying around. So I wouldn't bet against RIVN no matter how many losses they pile up because they have a wealthy benefactor who will give up literally everything to try and beat his imagined enemy.

Regardless of net worth, Bezos can't get engines out of his own rocket company. How much chance is there that his involvement will improve the odds/ rate of getting vans out of Rivian?

 

[bro1999]

But Tesla's profits in Q3 already equalled those of VW in Q3 (with one growing output by 50-70% per year and the other one declining). But Rivian has virtually no sales and is years away from any profit. Even for the neutral observer the difference should be clear.

I believe the Rivian CEO (or some c-level Rivian finance guy anyways) has publicly stated that they won't turn a profit no matter how many vehicles they sell until they can build another factory(s). So current investors know any profits are a long while off. Right now it's all about upside, not financials. Though they will want to show good progress with deliveries whenever they have their 1st earnings report.

 

[Mengy]

I believe the Rivian CEO (or some c-level Rivian finance guy anyways) has publicly stated that they won't turn a profit no matter how many vehicles they sell until they can build another factory(s). So current investors know any profits are a long while off. Right now it's all about upside, not financials. Though they will want to show good progress with deliveries whenever they have their 1st earnings report.

Nah, I think the run up right now is more about "The Next Tesla" than Rivian's actual upside. Pure FOMO more or less.

You are correct though, it's going to be years until Rivian posts a profit, and this is why I feel the fundamentals will reel the share price back down to more realistic levels soon, I'd guess by mid 2022 or so.

I'd never buy right now, I follow the theory of "be fearful when others are greedy" and right now pure greed is driving RIVN up. After it collapses, when fear of getting stuck bagholding drives it crashing down, THEN I'll think about possibly buying some for the long term.