All US Cars capable of FSD will be enabled for one month trial this week

[fholbert]

just got a prompt to install 2024.3.10 should this have the fsd trial or should I hold off?

Yes, 2024.3.6 gave me FSD. Looks like 2024.3.10 is a patch.

 

[gt2690b]

It appears that USS cars are not being pushed to 2024.3.6 since that has the new vision based autopark.

Wait so USS cars are not getting the FSD trial??

 

[arbitrage000]

Wait so USS cars are not getting the FSD trial??

I just got 3.10 (haven't installed yet). Was on 2.7. I have a 2022 MY with USS.

 

[kpanda17]

I just got 3.10 (haven't installed yet). Was on 2.7. I have a 2022 MY with USS.

Same here, is FSD 12.3.3
Too late tonight to test
Will report back tomorrow

 

[Hickster]

I’m on 2024.8.4 and still waiting for an update that includes the FSD trial.

 

[BitJam]

Wait so USS cars are not getting the FSD trial??

I am confident ALL FSD capable cars, even those with USS, will get the free FSD trial. It will just take longer for some. We have to wait until they merge v12 intro a firmware version greater than 2024.8.7. IMO getting v12 ready for wide release was the hard part. Merging it into a more recent branch of the firmware is relatively easy.

Elon decided, perhaps quite suddenly, to make good on what he said a year ago, providing a free trial to everyone once FSD seems safe enough. The engineers are now working to make that happen. They've already gotten some people started on the free trial which I find very impressive. Patience.

Another way to see it is that for years Tesla was trying to limit the number of beta testers in order to have a pool of safe and responsible testers in order to lessen the chances a tester causing a serious accident and the catastrophic PR that would ensue.

They have decided it is now time to open the floodgates. Some people have reported it is no longer called "beta". Sure we might have to wait a few weeks for those gates to get fully open but I have no doubt it's going to happen and it will happen relatively soon.

The biggest risk I see is if some knucklehead (or someone who is very unlucky) gets into a bad accident with FSD and Tesla has to rethink opening the gates to everyone.

 

[gearchruncher]

Until now, the price and the version hoop jumping were designed to limit the number of beta users in order to prevent inattentive testers from creating accidents that would be catastrophic PR.

Another way to see it is that for years Tesla was trying to limit the number of beta testers in order to have a pool of safe and responsible testers in order to lessen the chances a tester causing a serious accident and the catastrophic PR that would ensue.

Someone has forgotten that huge numbers of people can FSD for $99 a month and everyone can get it for $199. The story that the price was meant to hold back the unwashed idiot masses holds no water. If they were limiting this, they would have stayed with the safety score they dropped over a year ago.

This is a pure marketing play where they are hoping some people decide to actually buy it to make up for the falling stock and problematic quarters they are having now. The alignment with this being the first month of a quarter is not coincidental timing with the software suddenly being ready. They're just hoping to squeeze some more money out of existing customers now that new customer acquisition is getting expensive.

The biggest risk I see is if some knucklehead (or someone who is very unlucky) gets into a bad accident with FSD and Tesla has to rethink opening the gates to everyone.

Why would Tesla be worried about this? FULL SELF DRIVING requires continuous attention by the driver, and the driver is always responsible for anything that happens. Everyone can clearly see that from the name and reading the detailed user manual for the feature.

 

[BitJam]

Someone has forgotten that huge numbers of people can FSD for $99 a month and everyone can get it for $199. The story that the price was meant to hold back the unwashed idiot masses holds no water. If they were limiting this, they would have stayed with the safety score they dropped over a year ago.

That makes no sense. If the size and quality of the testing pool works for them without the safety score then it would be silly for them to keep it or add it back in. The idea, posted by Hans Nelson over a year ago, was that Tesla is trying to get the right sized testing pool, neither too big nor too small. The versioning hoops people had to jump through was another way to limit testers by only letting in those who could accept delayed gratification.

Also, those who have been paying attention realize that Tesla has been compute limited in their FSD training for years. There were extra risks in making the tester pool larger than what they need but there were almost no benefits because the already had more data than their computers could handle. For those who have been paying attention, Elon's recent announcement that they are no longer compute limited has massive implication.

This is a pure marketing play where they are hoping some people decide to actually buy it to make up for the falling stock and problematic quarters they are having now.

This idea was shot down very convincingly in several of Herbert's recent videos about FSD. First, over a year ago Elon said that once FSD gets smooth enough and safe enough, there would be a free or nearly free trial. Second, shortly before the announced free trial Elon said they were no longer compute limited in their FSD training. This means they are data limited so getting a lot more data is the way to make the most rapid progress.

The alignment with this being the first month of a quarter is not coincidental timing with the software suddenly being ready. They're just hoping to squeeze some more money out of existing customers now that new customer acquisition is getting expensive.

Seriously? You would have better reason to make this argument if they released it in the second month of a quarter to get more FSD sales for the end of quarter push. Certainly it had to be one of the three months of some quarter. Claiming this timing is a smoking gun seems like a feeble grasp at straws. In addition, the amount of money they make from FSD will be lower during the free trial. Giving something away for free is a terrible way to raise more money quickly. People who were planning to purchase or subscribe to FSD are now holding off.

Ironically, my earlier post that you disagreed with was in response to someone saying that from their experience the free trial was going to lower the take rate in the new future after the free trial expires because people would be disappointed in what v12 can do compared to the hype. Perhaps you disagree with them too and you think this free trial will magically make them boatloads of money.

Sure, it is possible that Tesla is being run by utter buffoons who are lowering their FSD income with the hopes of having the opposite effect so that they can temporarily spike the stock price in the middle of a quarter for some unknown reason. Or it could be Elon is making good on his word that they would make a wide release as soon as the software became smooth enough.

Of course, the simple explanation that they are getting a bunch of new data because FSD training is now data limited rather than compute limited is also a real possibility. In addition, now that they are doing end-to-end training it is essential for them to use good data so most of the data they get will probably be thrown out.

Finally, they are probably getting diminishing returns from the data from their current fleet of beta testers. Elon has addressed this problem several times. He said that FSD improvements eventually grow logarithmically (very very slowly) forcing them to try something new. Eventually there will be very little new useful information to be garnered from their current testers. Elon specifically said they over-fit FSD in the SF Bay Area to the detriment of it working well in other parts of the country. The solution for this is to widen the pool of testers and widen the areas where they drive. Which is exactly what they are doing now even if it is temporarily detrimental to their FSD income and their bottom line.

Back in 2021 Elon said:

We need to make Full Self-Driving work in order for it to be a compelling value proposition.​

I think we agree it is not yet working as Full Self-Driving. Broadening their pool of testers is now the fastest path to get it to work. Minor variations in profit and loss in any given quarter are insignificant compared to getting FSD to work. Elon said (perhaps hyperbolically) that Tesla's future and continued existence depends on it.

 

[gearchruncher]

Back in 2021 Elon said:

Should we go back and quote what Elon said about FSD in 2016, 2017, 2018. 2019, and 2020? I'll pick one:

“Buying a car today is an investment into the future. I think the most profound thing is that if you buy a Tesla today, I believe you are buying an appreciating asset – not a depreciating asset.

I'm not really one to take Elon at any kind of word about FSD, as someone that bought a FSD car in 2016.

 

[threeputts]

I got the FSD email after installing 3.10 on a MY. My M3 installed 4.8 a few days ago, no messages.

 

[Mengy]

Wait so USS cars are not getting the FSD trial??

My Model Y is a USS car and I got update 2024.3.10 last night while I slept, and I now have the FSD free month trial! Going to test it out after I eat breakfast!

 

[dhrivnak]

I am confused and maybe because I have a 2018 Model 3 but my app shows I am on 2024.8.7 which is later than most people are reporting but it says I am version 11.1 and no trial for me. Am I missing something?

 

[kpanda17]

I am confused and maybe because I have a 2018 Model 3 but my app shows I am on 2024.8.7 which is later than most people are reporting but it says I am version 11.1 and no trial for me. Am I missing something?

The MY USS vehicles were delayed and just received the demo with 2024.3.10
We are not sure why some are on the 2024.8.x
I would not loose hope
Let’s watch the progress this week

 

[Georgesb2]

I got the free FSD trial!

Late last night I was notified of a software update. I updated the car's software to 2024.3.10 following the download. Then I got an email from Tesla saying that it had granted me FSD for 30 days trial. It also added Summon to my phone's app.

Wow! I'm excited to give this a whirl.

2022 Model 3 Performance

 

[kpanda17]

Looks like everyone is getting 4/29 end date
Seems to be an April demo
Not 30 day demo

 

[arbitrage000]

Looks like everyone is getting 4/29 end date
Seems to be an April demo
Not 30 day demo

Depends when you install. I had the update ready last night but just installed this morning (March 31). Got the email as soon as update completed and my end date is 4/30.

 

[kpanda17]

Depends when you install. I had the update ready last night but just installed this morning (March 31). Got the email as soon as update completed and my end date is 4/30.

Hope it’s 30 days so the 2024.8 guys get FSD soon

 

[Mengy]

Depends when you install. I had the update ready last night but just installed this morning (March 31). Got the email as soon as update completed and my end date is 4/30.

Yeah I got the update and installed last night at 11:30 PM, and mine says it expires on 4/29. I should have waited half an hour, I'd have gotten one more day!

 

[gt2690b]

My Model Y is a USS car and I got update 2024.3.10 last night while I slept, and I now have the FSD free month trial! Going to test it out after I eat breakfast!

Happy resurrection day.. seriously though I need to know the algorithm that makes Tesla decide to upgrade people..

please disclose all of your personal details.. married? Kids? Dogs? Social security #? Date of birth? Mother's maiden name

 

[T3SLAROD]

That makes no sense. If the size and quality of the testing pool works for them without the safety score then it would be silly for them to keep it or add it back in. The idea, posted by Hans Nelson over a year ago, was that Tesla is trying to get the right sized testing pool, neither too big nor too small. The versioning hoops people had to jump through was another way to limit testers by only letting in those who could accept delayed gratification.

Also, those who have been paying attention realize that Tesla has been compute limited in their FSD training for years. There were extra risks in making the tester pool larger than what they need but there were almost no benefits because the already had more data than their computers could handle. For those who have been paying attention, Elon's recent announcement that they are no longer compute limited has massive implication.


This idea was shot down very convincingly in several of Herbert's recent videos about FSD. First, over a year ago Elon said that once FSD gets smooth enough and safe enough, there would be a free or nearly free trial. Second, shortly before the announced free trial Elon said they were no longer compute limited in their FSD training. This means they are data limited so getting a lot more data is the way to make the most rapid progress.


Seriously? You would have better reason to make this argument if they released it in the second month of a quarter to get more FSD sales for the end of quarter push. Certainly it had to be one of the three months of some quarter. Claiming this timing is a smoking gun seems like a feeble grasp at straws. In addition, the amount of money they make from FSD will be lower during the free trial. Giving something away for free is a terrible way to raise more money quickly. People who were planning to purchase or subscribe to FSD are now holding off.

Ironically, my earlier post that you disagreed with was in response to someone saying that from their experience the free trial was going to lower the take rate in the new future after the free trial expires because people would be disappointed in what v12 can do compared to the hype. Perhaps you disagree with them too and you think this free trial will magically make them boatloads of money.

Sure, it is possible that Tesla is being run by utter buffoons who are lowering their FSD income with the hopes of having the opposite effect so that they can temporarily spike the stock price in the middle of a quarter for some unknown reason. Or it could be Elon is making good on his word that they would make a wide release as soon as the software became smooth enough.

Of course, the simple explanation that they are getting a bunch of new data because FSD training is now data limited rather than compute limited is also a real possibility. In addition, now that they are doing end-to-end training it is essential for them to use good data so most of the data they get will probably be thrown out.

Finally, they are probably getting diminishing returns from the data from their current fleet of beta testers. Elon has addressed this problem several times. He said that FSD improvements eventually grow logarithmically (very very slowly) forcing them to try something new. Eventually there will be very little new useful information to be garnered from their current testers. Elon specifically said they over-fit FSD in the SF Bay Area to the detriment of it working well in other parts of the country. The solution for this is to widen the pool of testers and widen the areas where they drive. Which is exactly what they are doing now even if it is temporarily detrimental to their FSD income and their bottom line.

Back in 2021 Elon said:

We need to make Full Self-Driving work in order for it to be a compelling value proposition.​

I think we agree it is not yet working as Full Self-Driving. Broadening their pool of testers is now the fastest path to get it to work. Minor variations in profit and loss in any given quarter are insignificant compared to getting FSD to work. Elon said (perhaps hyperbolically) that Tesla's future and continued existence depends on it.

Just make FSD a standard feature on every new Tesla sold because it’s not worth $12k. Then Tesla would have unlimited data….