Am at a loss: is the $2k FSD offer going away on Monday?

[dww12]

<ContrarianView>

This is for people who already have EAP and might be considering the FSD package at $2K before Monday.

It doesn't matter to me that it's "on sale" for 50% off. Look at WHAT is on sale: Exactly nothing. The FSD package, right now, consists of absolutely nothing. No functionality at all. I will not be taken in by promises of future functionality, such as the vague "later this year" statement about traffic light and stop sign recognition.

Even if such functionality is rolled out, will it be usable? I got my first Model S in early 2015, and in late 2015 we saw the first rollout of Autosteer with AP1. Only last year did we see Autosteer get to the point where the lane-keeping is pretty dead reliable and can be trusted for the most part. That's a 3 year evolution.

If you're optimistic and believe that FSD functionality would follow the same functionality and maturity curve as simple lane-keeping, then a rollout of initial FSD functions like traffic light and stop sign recognition in late 2019 means that by late 2022 that functionality might be usable and trustworthy.

Musk himself has said that FSD will require HW3, which you supposedly will get upgraded to for free when the time comes that it's necessary. No guarantee of that either. They could decide that giving it away is too costly, and make you pay for it, or you can keep HW 2.5 for reduced functionality.

While you're waiting on the functionality, the $2K is depreciating. By 2022, maybe Audi / Mercedes / BMW / Porsche has a viable competitor and you want to switch anyway.

$2000 spent on FSD right now has no current value, no resale value, gets you no functionality, and no hardware.

My advice: $2000 cash has a current value. Exchange it only for something that has equivalent current value, not potential future value. FSD functionality won't be more valuable in the future -- as other automakers begin rolling out their solutions, it will have less future value. Think about that.

</ContrarianView>

I don’t plan on selling my car, if anything getting a second M3P. I believe there will be self driving by the end of the year. It may not be legal, it may be beta, but there will be something. It requires the new NN chip that is 10x faster and my car did not come with it and it won’t ever be free. $2k sounds reasonable, $4k+ was going to be a stretch. Tesla needed some quick cash and they had a sale, that’s it. I am glad they are keeping the $35k car. That is the most important car ever.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I would agree if it seemed like any of this was actually planned. The way all of these price adjustments have come so rapidly has the appearance of sloppiness with little advanced planning. While it may seem like a sale to some, the way all of this has been handled by Tesla doesn’t seem like a sale to me.

They announced it as a temporary price reduction. Now you know when the price is going to go back up.

What other requirement makes it a sale?

People are acting like the sale is complicated and confusing. It isn't.

There's a sale on EAP and FSD for existing owners without them.
There's a sale on FSD for existing owners with EAP only.

Tesla needed cash. So they had a sale on some software activation.

 

[Chancellor32]

Super tempting, completely torn haha. I want FSD features when they come out, I want HW3 but I don’t want to get suckered into paying for something that doesn’t exist. I feel like they just need cash and this is the easy way to get it.

 

[woodisgood]

Even though I previously said adding an expiration date to the 2K offer would probably make me bite, I'm going to pass.

I don't have high hopes for the new FSD features being very useful for quite some time, and unlike features like Dashcam or Sentry Mode which can still be usable in early versions, the autonomous driving stuff has to be pretty mature before it's useful. The HW3 rollout is going to be slow and painful, and even after I get presumed update, there's no guarantee it will noticeably change any part of EAP for the better. Once I see FSD features and that they'd actually be useful to me, I'll decide whether it's worth price charged.

Maybe something at the Y reveal changes my mind.

 

[TheBatcave]

I got my delivery in Dec of 2018. No EAP. Now, after the discounts, I bought AP for 2k. Why? Because it's functionally worth it. For 2k (and using amex I can pay for it over 3 6 or 12 months if I want as well), I get autopilot. A fun, amazing, well used feature.

Do I NEED summon? No, I can move my car myself. Do I NEED Navigate on AP? No, as anytime I tried it during a trial it almost never worked.

The answer is simple. Do not give Tesla money for something you likely won't use much, if at all. Sure, do you want all the latest features? Yes. Will the stop light and stop sign feature be ready in time? I leave you with this. What is "elon" time?

2k purchase for me now, not doing FSD now, and will likely get it in a year or two when it's cheaper again.

 

[PoitNarf]

They announced it as a temporary price reduction. Now you know when the price is going to go back up.

What other requirement makes it a sale?

People are acting like the sale is complicated and confusing. It isn't.

There's a sale on EAP and FSD for existing owners without them.
There's a sale on FSD for existing owners with EAP only.

Tesla needed cash. So they had a sale on some software activation.

Very well, I shall refer to it as a haphazard sale then. But it's not just this supposed sale I'm talking about here. That combined with Tesla announcing they are closing many retail locations to only walk it back a few days later and say 90% of existing retail locations will remain. It's just a constant back and forth with their execution which makes any sense of planning on their part seem almost non-existent at times.

 

[Austindude]

Wow what a bunch of babies! Tesla needs to raise cash, I want the HW3 hardware and software (whenever it comes out) and to help Tesla, which I want to survive, FSD is on sale at $2K, a 50% sale, until Monday. If you don't have FSD now and you are of the opinion that it will never be worth $4K, $2K, or any price for that matter don't buy it! If that is your opinion then why are you even weighing on things? I for one will be happy to take the gamble and buy at the sale price.

 

[DriveMe]

<ContrarianView>
...
My advice: $2000 cash has a current value. Exchange it only for something that has equivalent current value, not potential future value...
</ContrarianView>

Thanks for pointing out all the cons! I gave it another thought, and now I am ready to place my FSD order!

My rational is simple:

1. I will want the new computer as soon as it is released (later this year as already announced).
2. I will want every new FSD-related feature as soon as they are released (likely later this year).
3. I am pretty sure I will not be able to get all the above for $2000 anymore. More likely for $4000.
4. Paying $2000 now for what I truly expect to buy for $4000 in the next 12 months is a wise decision, IMHO.
5. Having FSD and a new computer does increase the resale value.

Not everyone wants to be an early adopter, so my personal rational may not be applicable to everyone. But for me personally, it's a simple call.

 

[ABC2D]

I'm in the same boat, but let me point a few things.

1. I will want the new computer as soon as it is released (later this year as already announced).

While most expect it, as Elon confirmed it on Twitter, here is what in each our Purchase Agreement "Terms relating to the purchase not expressly contained herein are not binding", and since Tesla has now "redefined" FSD, our 2 or 2.5 might actually be "capable" of the FSD

2. I will want every new FSD-related feature as soon as they are released (likely later this year).

I've been waiting for it since I took delivery in 2017... still waiting "3 month maybe, 6 definitely"

3. I am pretty sure I will not be able to get all the above for $2000 anymore. More likely for $4000.

I thought that too since when ordering Tesla said "$3k now or $4 after delivery"

4. Paying $2000 now for what I expect to buy for $4000 in the next 12 months is a wise decision, IMHO.

Same as #3

5. Having FSD and a new computer does increase the resale value.

Until Tesla decreases prices again, which might be any minute it seems, or, might have had already happened while I typed this response

 

[DriveMe]

Thanks! I have thoroughly consider all the above arguments.
Just placed my order!

 

[socal_suburbanit]

Post sale FSD will be 4K for those with EAP and 7k for new purchasers post sale? And those that have the new basic AP will pay ??? For FSD
Confused.

 

[dnvr-ev]

Even though I previously said adding an expiration date to the 2K offer would probably make me bite, I'm going to pass.

I don't have high hopes for the new FSD features being very useful for quite some time, and unlike features like Dashcam or Sentry Mode which can still be usable in early versions, the autonomous driving stuff has to be pretty mature before it's useful. The HW3 rollout is going to be slow and painful, and even after I get presumed update, there's no guarantee it will noticeably change any part of EAP for the better. Once I see FSD features and that they'd actually be useful to me, I'll decide whether it's worth price charged.

Maybe something at the Y reveal changes my mind.

Someone testing FSD told me it already mostly works. It makes mistakes and doesn’t recognize stuff sometimes, hence a driver needs to be in control lik AP. Not sure if the first version will run on 2.5. I think Tesla stopped selling it for $3k because the super high end graphics card is worth at least $2k with install.

If you think graphics cards are cheap look up how much a 2080ti graphics card is ($1400ish) and this is likely much faster. Manufacturing cost is high.

Tesla was planning on $7k going forward, even for EAP owners until the price drop debacle. Who knows where this all lands, but FSD will not be free or cheap.

The question for me is whether I need it. I do envision a future where the car completely drives itself in under 5 years if Tesla can stop making bad business decisions and stop taking risks.

I’m not sure Tesla won’t add another upgrade tier, though. Five years from now pricing? Autopilot $1k, Full Self Driving $4k, Fully Autonomous Vehicle $8k (with option to ride share so the car pays for itself).

How useful is partially working self driving functionality and how is that better than autopilot when I have to control the car anyway? Should I pay $3,000 now for hopefully hw 3.0 and the ability to stop the car automatically at lights and signs? AP is already very useful for me and I would love it if Tesla would clearly state what FSD will include. Or, maybe they are being ambiguous because they don’t want me to buy it for $3,000 anyway?

 

[Runt8]

I think Tesla stopped selling it for $3k because the super high end graphics card is worth at least $2k with install.

If you think graphics cards are cheap look up how much a 2080ti graphics card is ($1400ish) and this is likely much faster. Manufacturing cost is high.

Tesla has developed their own neural network processor, they aren't running it on a graphics card.

 

[Eno Deb]

Consider it a $2000 lottery ticket: you may win and get something, or flush the money down the toilet.

My guess: the new "city driving" features will be late, half-baked and not very usable, similar to (the much simpler) NoA. HW3 upgrades may or may not happen. No lottery ticket for me.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Consider it a $2000 lottery ticket: you may win and get something, or flush the money down the toilet.

LOL - or just a donation to the Church of Elon. I've made many donations and continue to do so...

 

[MrMannilow]

If none of you saw this as a marketing ploy from day 1 I don't know that to tell you.

This same mass pricing panic is why most of us bit the "buy now or it will be more later" bug at time of purchase. Now they are reverting the prices and people are panic buying $2k for FSD. FSD is not ready, HW3 is not ready, legislation is not ready.

I'm not spending 2k right now in case Tesla decides to drop prices again within the year when they actually have a product they can deliver

 

[dnvr-ev]

Tesla has developed their own neural network processor, they aren't running it on a graphics card.

Neural network like a brain? It’s a graphics card with a fancy name. What else would it be?

 

[pscarroll]

Oh dear f'ing God people, stop all the whining! Here is your opportunity to get in on the ground level of FSD, with new hardware, and new features for cheap and all you can do is whine. Put down your cold, hard cash and get on board. If not, no big deal. But don't come back whining later when it now costs more, say $10000, and that you deserve those features because yada yada yada, and Elon is so terrible to charge you $10000, that you just couldn't make a decision at the time because of how fragile it all made you feel. :Rollseyes: Either support Tesla or don't, your choice. Tesla will be rewarded those who bought when they could, and right now it's a steal.

 

[Runt8]

Neural network like a brain? It’s a graphics card with a fancy name. What else would it be?

It might have some similarities to a modern graphics card, but I'm sure there are some major differences as well.

 

[MrMannilow]

Neural network like a brain? It’s a graphics card with a fancy name. What else would it be?

It's likely an ASIC created specific for the task. Same as the cpus that mine Bitcoin.