Another "Tesla killer" fading already?

[ReddyLeaf]

I think this is pretty bad news. I want to see more EV success. That will lead to greater competition and better vehicles overall.
Personally, I’m rooting for the eTeon, iPace, and Taycan.

Yes, definitely bad news. I constantly talk to people about EVs, who are waiting on....xyz brand. They actually think they will be able to buy one soon out here in sticksville eastern WA. They cannot comprehend that a Silicon Valley startup, constantly harassed with bad press, can sell 10-20 times more EVs than the major automakers like Toyota, VW, GM, Ford, etc. Yes, it really is a ploy to slow down EV adoption. Don’t let them win, just let them drive your car.

 

[Magellan55]

Saw my first eTron in the wild today! "Midnight silver". It does look like a big Q5 - had to look for the badge to confirm. Nice, stately vehicle. If I were shopping for a 2-row SUV, it would definitely be on the list, though range would be an issue since our SUV is for family road trips. Some say it looks more like a Q8, though I haven't noticed one of those around here yet so I can't compare.

Still no iPace sighting, though I think the eTron has already passed it in US total sales. Probably more a function of brand than vehicle - Audi's just way outsell Jags here.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I suspect it's gonna to be Rivian.

I think the big issue is dealers. The existing ICE dealers just don't know how to sell EV.

The Chevy Volt died because of DEALERS. They are clueless.

You need fresh blood. Fresh ways of doing things. That's partly why Tesla has succeeded to date.

I suspect Rivian will be similar. I mean really, 100,000 Preorders to Amazon.

Be interesting to watch how Rivian builds up it's dealer network and support structure.

To be honest Rivian and Tesla should strike a deal. Tesla has issues of course but it's a decade ahead in terms of Sales and Support (as bad as it is).

Rivian might strike a deal with Ford or something, but I think they will end up like eTron and Volt if they use existing ICE dealer network.

I don’t think Rivian is going the dealership route. Earlier this year a Rivian lobbyist and a Tesla lobbyist were side-by-side arguing for the Texas legislature to change language in a bill that would have (further) limited non-dealership car servicing in the state (they were successful). It was pretty obvious Rivian was thinking direct-sales.

 

[mswlogo]

I don’t think Rivian is going the dealership route. Earlier this year a Rivian lobbyist and a Tesla lobbyist were side-by-side arguing for the Texas legislature to change language in a bill that would have (further) limited non-dealership car servicing in the state (they were successful). It was pretty obvious Rivian was thinking direct-sales.

When I say dealer I mean something someone can walk into and buy or Test drive a Rivian. They have nothing in place yet (using dealers or “stores”).

 

[Prunesquallor]

When I say dealer I mean something someone can walk into and buy or Test drive a Rivian. They have nothing in place yet (using dealers or “stores”).

And that is exactly (the “buying” part) what is illegal in many states.

 

[mswlogo]

And that is exactly (the “buying” part) what is illegal in many states.

Your getting way off topic. Everyone knows about the dealer thing.

The discussion is “Tesla killer”.

The most serious competition to Tesla is Rivian. But Rivian is lacking any infrastructure to service and sell them ( regardless of what form that is (dealer or no dealer)).

 

[Magellan55]

The most serious competition to Tesla is Rivian. But Rivian is lacking any infrastructure to service and sell them ( regardless of what form that is (dealer or no dealer)).

Rivian is still at high risk of getting far off the ground. They are Tesla circa ~2009, except without any first mover advantage. Given all the other decent EV's now available, can they sell at enough of a premium to fund expansion? I think it's probably too late for new entrants to be successful. It's like some Pebble clone just now trying to break into smart watches.

My vote is with VW (includes Audi, Porsche) being the biggest competition. They will soon have entrants to compete with all of Tesla's models and more, worldwide infrastructure in place, plenty of manufacturing capacity (OK maybe not batteries yet, but no one other than Tesla does either) even charging.

I think Tesla will be the only startup EV company left standing in 5-7 years, other than maybe a few government-backed Chinese brands.

 

[RubberToe]

Rivian is still at high risk of getting far off the ground. They are Tesla circa ~2009, except without any first mover advantage. Given all the other decent EV's now available, can they sell at enough of a premium to fund expansion? I think it's probably too late for new entrants to be successful. It's like some Pebble clone just now trying to break into smart watches.

My vote is with VW (includes Audi, Porsche) being the biggest competition. They will soon have entrants to compete with all of Tesla's models and more, worldwide infrastructure in place, plenty of manufacturing capacity (OK maybe not batteries yet, but no one other than Tesla does either) even charging.

I think Tesla will be the only startup EV company left standing in 5-7 years, other than maybe a few government-backed Chinese brands.

You realize Amazon just ordered 100,000 Rivian vehicles. If Amazon is backing you with that kind of money you will survive.

RT

 

[Magellan55]

You realize Amazon just ordered 100,000 Rivian vehicles. If Amazon is backing you with that kind of money you will survive.

RT

Ordering something that doesn't exist from a company with no products yet is mostly a publicity stunt. Notice Bezos announced it as part of his campaign to convince everyone Amazon is green. He invested some money too, but only a part of a $700M round. His investment likely amounts to less than $1000 "deposit" per truck on that order. Easy write-off if they go belly up.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla Sales and Support, as problematic as it is, works for most customers.

Tesla Support doesn't work for me or my wife.

But that's only because neither of our Teslas have ever needed any service in the year + that we've owned them.

 

[StealthP3D]

Length x Width:

Audi E-Tron: 4.90m x 1.94m
Model X: 5.05m x 2.00m
Model 3: 4.69m x 1.85m

It's much closer to a Model X than to a Model 3.

Not if you compare interior volume. Useable space is all the matters, not external dimensions!

 

[Magellan55]

Not if you compare interior volume. Useable space is all the matters, not external dimensions!

True the X seems more like a minivan in terms of space efficiency. SUV's have terrible space efficiency.

 

[themoonring]

I'll take reports of a "Tesla Killer," seriously, the moment the manufacturers of the "Killer," announce their plan to open thousands of proprietary high speed charging stations around the world. From a competitive perspective, Tesla seems pretty uintouchable. I mean, what if GM started opening gas stations everywhere that were super efficient, affordable and only worked on their cars?

 

[hill]

True. To be fair to Jaguar, they actually put some effort into the iPace, and it's >8% of their sales now in year 2. It's no compliance car.

It's possible the Taycan will be a similar hit among their loyalists and may be more of a threat to the Panamera than to the Model S. It seems to be that 4-door 911 they should have built all along. Could be fun watching the next-gen horsepower wars between Tesla and Porsche. Especially when we advance to Roadster-vs-e911! (911e? - I think "e911" is already taken in the telecom world...).

no nation-wide charg-ie? No sell-ie
.

 

[GregD60]

Taycan is replacing my Tesla - it has more range and is faster than my Performance Model S, so I see it as a more comfortable direct competitor to my previous electric car. I don't understand the "made for Europe" concept - what does this mean?

I think it's very unlikely that the Taycan will have more range than your Tesla even if it's an early Model S Performance, and it certainly has nowhere near the range of a new Model S Performance. The following Forbes article sums it up pretty well. The bottom line is that the Taycan will likely have an EPA rated range of about 220 miles while a current Model S Performance has an EPA rated range of 345 miles. I'd call that a pretty huge advantage for the Tesla.

Porsche Taycan Delivers Performance, Misses On Range And Efficiency

 

[t-rizzle]

I still haven't seen an e-tron or iPace in the real world yet ....

I saw one drive by while super charging the other day here in Denver at the Park Meadows mall. It was funny seeing the lady driving stare at the five or six of us charging while she drove by and parked to go shopping. Had a temp tag so definitely bought within the last 60 days. I thought to myself is she annoyed that she cannot charge and go shopping and just has to park...

 

[sanjuvarma]

INMO, there is no Tesla killer yet. The latest pricing details on the Volvo Polestar 2 revealed that the cheapest version of that EV is almost the same as the the maxed out M3 PD.
Polestar Reveals Pricing Details For Its Battery Electric Sedan. Are You Sitting Down? | CleanTechnica

 

[BrianDS]

I know the battery stuff got off topic, but thanks for sharing as I'm still learning.

I also appreciate the discussion.
When I got my model 3 in July the delivery specialist told me to charge to 80%. And to only go over that for trips.
Looking in the M3 owners manual on page 123
"There is no advantage to waiting until the Battery’s level is low before charging. In fact, the Battery performs best when charged regularly."
I expect the engineers who reviewed and approved the manual knew best.

Thanks. Learning a lot here.

 

[Sans-gas]

I have a 2017 MS 75D and was fortunate enough to be able to borrow an e-tron for a week this summer while my MS was in the shop for a body damage repair. It’s a beautiful car in and out, but not a true competitor to a Tesla for anyone that has a Tesla.
The range is 200miles, if you drive carefully - it was closer to 175 with my normal driving. That’s in a 95 KW battery. I get 240 miles out of my 75 KW.
Charging is odd. Every time you plug in at home, the charger will default to low current and you have to manually adjust it to high current to get 11KW/hr, otherwise it defaults to 110voltage and takes 80-90 hours to charge (as it would for a Tesla plugged into a 110 outlet). It’s incredibly inconvenient for home charging as you plug it in, wait for it to start charging, then go find the transformer on the cord to hit the button to go to high speed - every single time.
Acceleration was around 6.5 seconds to 60 unless you dig through the menu to enable sport mode. Then it would drop to around 5.5 seconds, but you have to do this every time and it’s not a default.
Finally, I really enjoy the serene silence of my MS. It’s like a ninja and I find that folks who have never seen an MS are first shocked at how quiet it is when I roll up. The e-tron makes a very loud fake space-ship type of noise. It’s especially loud in reverse. My 6 and 7 year olds thought it was broken and wondered why it was so loud. It’s a pedestrian safety thing in europe, but shows the contrast between the Tesla being a car built as electric and the Audi as a car turned electric.
The interior is grade A Audi and the exterior is as well. The frunk is only big enough for the charging cord at just a few inches deep - clearly a stretched Q5 converted into an electric car.
It may be appealing to a first time electric driver who already has ICE cars, won’t travel out of town with it (you can’t even charge faster than 21 miles an hour at the dealers now - there are no chargers greater than 11KW yet), doesn’t miss the performance of a normal Audi, and doesn’t mind the space ship noise, oh and the model I had was $94k - so $40K more than a comparably equipped Q5. I had a long talk with folks at the dealer and the owner of the store, it’s going to be a tough sale.... not to wish other EVs less success, but the product is just inferior and non-competitive at that price. The sales stats are bearing it out.

The sound, forward and reverse, under about 16 mph, is now apparently required on new EV’s. Glad I don’t have it. It sounds like it’s’ hardware so not likely to be added as a update.

 

[Chaserr]

I think it's very unlikely that the Taycan will have more range than your Tesla even if it's an early Model S Performance, and it certainly has nowhere near the range of a new Model S Performance. The following Forbes article sums it up pretty well. The bottom line is that the Taycan will likely have an EPA rated range of about 220 miles while a current Model S Performance has an EPA rated range of 345 miles. I'd call that a pretty huge advantage for the Tesla.

Porsche Taycan Delivers Performance, Misses On Range And Efficiency

220 miles is more than my Performance Tesla after Tesla decided to downgrade it to roughly 63kWh. That's why it's impossible for me to consider a Tesla replacement - they haven't downgraded 2019 Performance cars yet but Tesla has been clear they they have no problem doing it later. I don't like being told years after the deal is done that my range and performance upgrades I purchased had an expiration date or needing to participate in a class action lawsuit to have my warranty honored. Porsche has never treated me like this and they offer more range and more performance without being Tesla. That's all I want; the Taycan is essentially the same car I bought years ago, with a Porsche interior and Porsche service/warranty coverage.