Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Anyone thinking about an VW ID.4 Instead?

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
It's a little more complicated with than that with Diess' departure, but essentially VAG didn't like the direction he was pushing VW which was to become more like Tesla then not.
And the labor unions, who have seats on the VW board, certainly didn't like him talking about job losses. He was a little too much 'bull in the china shop' for the staid VW owners (primarily the Piech and Porsche families).
 
I test drove an ID.4 and put down a $100 deposit before buying my MYLR.

A few things changed my mind:

  • Inability to lock in prices (the deposit was more like buying the right to negotiate with a dealer after putting another $400 non refundable… whenever the vehicle actually arrived)
  • Following the owner/buyer forums, there seemed to be too many ‘infancy bugs’ for my liking.
  • Performance (even comparing AWD models) just wasn’t cutting it for me
  • And after I took a cross-state drive, the Tesla charger availability just confirmed that I made the right choice
  • What I’ve read about the EA network and status doesn’t instill confidence
Maybe the 2025 ID.4 will be a rock solid no-brainer purchase
 
I think that in today's EV market it is a complete waste of time to use the word sales as a measure. Production is the word. Everyone is selling all that they produce and deliver, usually with substantial wait times. The ID4 has problems with software that seems to be slowing availability, but production is beginning with the new Tennessee plant and hopefully with software issues improved it may become more available.
 
Out of pure curiosity, I checked a few of the Puget Sound VW dealers for ID.4 availability. Every single ID.4 listed has a "reserved" notation, most are still "in transit" listings.

"Hey there potential customer we'd love to sell you a car but nope, get in a huge line of backorders, have a good day!"

It defies logic.
I think the traditional makers underestimated vastly the complexity of the software stack, an area in which they have no expertise historically.
 
I think the traditional makers underestimated vastly the complexity of the software stack, an area in which they have no expertise historically.
I tend to agree. Advanced software is a challenge for large traditional companies that previously dealt more with hardware (cars in this case). If they need more advanced software they tend to farm it out to software companies which often doesn't work out very well. It's very difficult for them to establish their own in-house software group and hire the talent needed. The lure of stock options at a startup company with a good idea can be very tempting for top talent.

As an analogy, I worked for a semiconductor startup which made field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). Large established semi companies tried to compete but failed due the the complicated software required to configure the FPGA and program the device. Once the large semi companies failed to compete with their own FPGA products, they ended up buying out the smaller startups that designed the products (hardware and software) in the first place. Examples are Intel buying Altera and AMD purchasing Xilinx. While Altera and Xilinx were once startups and had no semiconductor manufacturing capability, they did grow to be pretty large companies but still got bought out by even larger companies.

I'm not saying that means Tesla will get bought out someday by a large ICE company, but I wouldn't rule it out. Obviously, it would be very expensive at today's stock prices.
 
I'm not saying that means Tesla will get bought out someday by a large ICE company, but I wouldn't rule it out. Obviously, it would be very expensive at today's stock prices.
Given valuations, the inverse is far likelier - Tesla buying a distressed ICE to get their dealer network (sales/service/parts). Can't see it happening but given Tesla's market cap, none of the ICE can afford them, not by a long shot.
 
Tesla buying a distressed ICE to get their dealer network (sales/service/parts).
A dealer network adds nothing of value for Tesla. If you break down what a dealer network is, well, that’s land, buildings, people, and parts distribution.

Tesla would rather buy some low-rent industrial warehouse to fix their cars-that’s pretty much where they are now and continue to be doing, not paying high rent on a place next to the freeway or across from a mall.

The people working in an ICE dealership know how to sell and fix ICE cars, and add nothing of value for Tesla. They would have to be re-trained, and probably begrudgingly. Better to just hire new people.

Parts distribution network? Tesla has their own. They have no need for subaru, toyota, ford, chevy distribution model and schedules. Worthless to them.

So, no, buying an ICE company would not make much sense for Tesla, or any other EV-only manufacturer.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Welsh-Bloke
I tend to agree. Advanced software is a challenge for large traditional companies that previously dealt more with hardware (cars in this case). If they need more advanced software they tend to farm it out to software companies which often doesn't work out very well. It's very difficult for them to establish their own in-house software group and hire the talent needed. The lure of stock options at a startup company with a good idea can be very tempting for top talent.

As an analogy, I worked for a semiconductor startup which made field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). Large established semi companies tried to compete but failed due the the complicated software required to configure the FPGA and program the device. Once the large semi companies failed to compete with their own FPGA products, they ended up buying out the smaller startups that designed the products (hardware and software) in the first place. Examples are Intel buying Altera and AMD purchasing Xilinx. While Altera and Xilinx were once startups and had no semiconductor manufacturing capability, they did grow to be pretty large companies but still got bought out by even larger companies.

I'm not saying that means Tesla will get bought out someday by a large ICE company, but I wouldn't rule it out. Obviously, it would be very expensive at today's stock prices.
hmm I remember working with Xilinx and ALtera tools years ago. :)

In fact, the problem is that car makers have gradually become system integrators. They buy sub-systems from other specialized makers, each with their own software stack, and patch them together. This is efficient in some ways, but fails when it comes to true vertical integration like Tesla. For example, the Ford Mach-E has like 5x as many computers on board as a Tesla (I think it might be even more than that), which is why OTA updates are so hard for the traditional automakers, who may not even have the rights to do OTA updates for (say) an OEM traction control system.
 
A dealer network adds nothing of value for Tesla. If you break down what a dealer network is, well, that’s land, buildings, people, and parts distribution.

Tesla would rather buy some low-rent industrial warehouse to fix their cars-that’s pretty much where they are now and continue to be doing, not paying high rent on a place next to the freeway or across from a mall.

The people working in an ICE dealership know how to sell and fix ICE cars, and add nothing of value for Tesla. They would have to be re-trained, and probably begrudgingly. Better to just hire new people.

Parts distribution network? Tesla has their own. They have no need for subaru, toyota, ford, chevy distribution model and schedules. Worthless to them.

So, no, buying an ICE company would not make much sense for Tesla, or any other EV-only manufacturer.
We're far afield from the topic so one last from me and I'll stop:

I wouldn't be so quick to conclude their existing "public facing" model is long term sustainable to support their growth ambitions. The amount of frustration and awful experiences relayed here with people buying and with service issues, and not having a local place to get resolution, is non-zero.
 
  • Like
Reactions: sleepydoc
Back to the id.4, coworker told me her husband has a Model 3 he bought a few years ago. They went to. vW dealer and ordered 2 id.4s after taking a test drive. She said they liked the interior and ride better than the M3 and the price was better. (His M3 was a also a rear wheel drive making it much less useful in MN winters.)
 
  • Like
Reactions: Silicon Desert
Let's just hope they don't inflate the EV mileage numbers like they did with their ICE car that caused them to have to compensate previous owners. Maybe they learned a lesson by that and get it right this time. :)
I had a Jetta TDI - it was a good car. The problem wasn’t that they inflated the mileage but that they deflated the emissions!
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: Silicon Desert
Are the dealers marking up the ID.4's? There are many reports of this happening with Mach-E, Ionic5, EV6, Lightning.... Don't think I have heard much about the ID.4, however...
I have one on order and I met with the salesman as I have purchased from him before. They were doing two deliverIves the day I was there. He confirmed that they are not doing any mark ups, nor adding on any “dealer equipment”. They are charging whatever is on the MSRP for that vehicle which was a relief to hear. I will probably be getting a 2023 model out of the TN plant.

I do wonder if VW will raise the their prices for 2023 based on everything that is going on in the auto industry supply chain.

I also have a Model Y on order which is intriguing now that it appears there will be a $7500 credit in Sales in 2023. I’ll have to think about which way to go.