AP1 vs. AP2

[justg0]

How much discount would convince you to go for AP1 vs. AP2 at this point? I have AP2 on order, but I am seeing some good deals on AP1 cars. I have test driven AP1 and at this point I will be pretty happy with it. I love driving, so I am not even sure how much I will use it. But I also love new technology and am concerned of buying old tech. Also am concerned if AP1 cars will lose lot of value faster once AP2 matures. On the other hand there are so many cars without AP, so they probably will hold their value (?)

Hence the question...

 

[HumanGenome]

You will regret not purchasing an AP2 vehicle. Period.

 

[justg0]

You will regret not purchasing an AP2 vehicle. Period.

Yes, I agree for the short term. But I am probably keeping this car for a while, 5+ years. So there will be AP3 and who know what else. So both AP1 and AP2 are going to get outdated some point.

 

[AMPd]

You will regret not purchasing an AP2 vehicle. Period.

Why so?
No one has even experienced the capability of AP2

 

[Troy]

Yes, I agree for the short term. But I am probably keeping this car for a while, 5+ years.

That doesn't make sense to me. If you are planning to drive the older technology for a longer time, it makes your experience worse, not better. Enhanced Autopilot is expected to go live within less than 2 months. Self-driving features will be added in 3-month intervals after that. In a year from now, most self-driving features will be released. For example, when you enter a destination, the car will take you there.

There is no regulatory approval needed for this as long as the driver is still in the driver's seat. Regulatory approval is needed for driverless use under the Tesla Network system. In conference calls, Elon used the term "driverless". That feature will take time. People are incorrectly confusing this delay with self-driving features that will be enabled when the driver is present.

In a year from now when Model 3 deliveries start, even those cars will have the 'self-driving to selected destination' feature and they will cost less than what you are planning to spend on old technology now.

 

[justg0]

That doesn't make sense to me. If you are planning to drive the older technology for a longer time, it makes your experience worse, not better. Enhanced Autopilot is expected to go live within less than 2 months. Self-driving features will be added in 3-month intervals after that. In a year from now, most self-driving features will be released. For example, when you enter a destination, the car will take you there.

I agree with your point of view, that's why I ordered AP2 in the first place. But I will present a different point of view, something that I keep going back and forth with.

I ordered a 60D as that's what's in my budget. But if I am able to get 75D with AP1 for the same price as what I ordered, that makes it tempting, as I do a 220mi trip ever 2 weeks and with 75D I may be able to skip supercharger completely. Basically there is more to the car than just auto pilot (or not). Just because the car has AP1, does it mean it will lose its value completely, or a lot? Then what about all the cars that have no AP at all?

Also I don't think I will use AP in city driving. I love driving and no car will drive the way I usually drive. I do see the value of AP on long highway drives and in my test drive, I was pretty happy with AP1.

BTW, so far no one has given a convincing argument to go with AP1, I won't say I am surprised, but still I thought I will get some arguments in that direction.

 

[Troy]

@justg0, how about the following alternative plan:

Keep the S60D. Reserve a Model 3 if you don't already have a reservation. Existing owners will have priority in Model 3 deliveries. Check your estimated Model 3 delivery time here. When the Model 3 arrives, sell the S60D and buy a Model 3 75D. The Model 3 75D will have 305 miles EPA rated range vs 259 miles in the Model S 75D, according to my calculation based on this data:

0.21 = Model 3 drag coefficient (source)
0.24 = Model S drag coefficient (source)
2.43 m^2 = Model S frontal area (source)
2.36 m^2 = Model 3 frontal area (source)
259 miles = EPA rated range of Model S 75D (source)

Model 3 75D EPA rated range = (0.24*2.43) * 259 / (0.21*2.36) = 304.8 miles.

 

[Jdcorbitt3]

If you buy the 60D today with AP2, you are getting a 75D. If the range isn't good enough, then at any point in the future, you can instantly upgrade your 60 to a 75 for $9,000. I am running a 60 on a 230 trip regularly. If I had a 75, I would still stop at a SC on the way, so I have local driving miles available at my destination.

John

 

[Footer]

If you like to drive, get the inventory P85D from Cleveland. $38,000 discount. Nothing like the launch of a PD. Assuming you're not too old you can always pick up the latest and greatest in 5 years.

 

[Aieukl378]

How much discount would convince you to go for AP1 vs. AP2 at this point? I have AP2 on order, but I am seeing some good deals on AP1 cars. I have test driven AP1 and at this point I will be pretty happy with it. I love driving, so I am not even sure how much I will use it. But I also love new technology and am concerned of buying old tech. Also am concerned if AP1 cars will lose lot of value faster once AP2 matures. On the other hand there are so many cars without AP, so they probably will hold their value (?)

Hence the question...

Well, AP1 is still a technological marvel and I'm not sure if it could actually ever be "out of date". I mean the car still parks itself and drives down the highway on it's own etc.(this stuff doesn't go away when AP 2,3 ,4 or whatever happens).

 

[justg0]

@justg0, how about the following alternative plan:

Keep the S60D. Reserve a Model 3 if you don't already have a reservation. Existing owners will have priority in Model 3 deliveries. Check your estimated Model 3 delivery time here. When the Model 3 arrives, sell the S60D and buy a Model 3 75D. The Model 3 75D will have 305 miles EPA rated range vs 259 miles in the Model S 75D, according to my calculation based on this data:

0.21 = Model 3 drag coefficient (source)
0.24 = Model S drag coefficient (source)
2.43 m^2 = Model S frontal area (source)
2.36 m^2 = Model 3 frontal area (source)
259 miles = EPA rated range of Model S 75D (source)

Model 3 75D EPA rated range = (0.24*2.43) * 259 / (0.21*2.36) = 304.8 miles.

I do have Model 3 on reservation and have done the same exploration that you suggest above. I think I would prefer Model S over Model 3 just for more space. I also need to fit at least 2 golf bags + golf carts and I am not sure if Model 3 trunk will have enough space for that. Also I just don't think I will be willing to take a 20 - 25% hit in depreciation, which is what I will need to do if I trade in 60D in a year from now. If I was going to go with Model 3 route, in that case I would have bought a CPO Model S (2012 - 2013), so I take minimal hit in depreciation.

 

[justg0]

If you buy the 60D today with AP2, you are getting a 75D. If the range isn't good enough, then at any point in the future, you can instantly upgrade your 60 to a 75 for $9,000. I am running a 60 on a 230 trip regularly. If I had a 75, I would still stop at a SC on the way, so I have local driving miles available at my destination.

John

Yeah, that was my reasoning for 60D right now and upgrade later. But if I give up AP2 and instead go with AP1, I can get that today at the same price as a 60D.

 

[justg0]

If you like to drive, get the inventory P85D from Cleveland. $38,000 discount. Nothing like the launch of a PD. Assuming you're not too old you can always pick up the latest and greatest in 5 years.

That is very tempting! I think I still have a few years left in me, so yeah, that sounds very interesting.

 

[justg0]

Well, AP1 is still a technological marvel and I'm not sure if it could actually ever be "out of date". I mean the car still parks itself and drives down the highway on it's own etc.(this stuff doesn't go away when AP 2,3 ,4 or whatever happens).

Yeah, and it is still so much technologically advanced than 99% of the cars out there. And that is not going to change anytime soon. So I feel like AP1 cars are still going to hold their value and not drop just because AP2 or AP2 comes along.

 

[bob_p]

While I answered "nothing will convince me", it's not that simple.

My nearly 4 year old P85 doesn't have AP 1.0 or the new features Tesla has added since my car was built (TACC, ...) - and it still a fantastic car, even without AP and the other features.

For many people, purchasing a Tesla is the most expensive car they have purchased, and if accepting AP 1.0 or even a car without AP brings the car price down enough to fit their budget, it's still worthwhile to make that purchase without getting AP 2.0, because compared to other cars on the market, the Model S and X provide both the ability to drive a long range EV with higher performance than competing ICEs.

We're considering purchasing a 100D with AP 2.0 - it's going to cost more than the P85 purchased 4 years ago - and if Tesla increases the price of the 100D too much (or we don't get the free long distance charging and we believe the SC charges are too much), we may decide to defer purchasing a new car - and just continue driving our P85 - which is still a fantastic car, after 4 years...

 

[justg0]

@justg0, how about the following alternative plan:

Keep the S60D. Reserve a Model 3 if you don't already have a reservation. Existing owners will have priority in Model 3 deliveries. Check your estimated Model 3 delivery time here. When the Model 3 arrives, sell the S60D and buy a Model 3 75D. The Model 3 75D will have 305 miles EPA rated range vs 259 miles in the Model S 75D, according to my calculation based on this data:

0.21 = Model 3 drag coefficient (source)
0.24 = Model S drag coefficient (source)
2.43 m^2 = Model S frontal area (source)
2.36 m^2 = Model 3 frontal area (source)
259 miles = EPA rated range of Model S 75D (source)

Model 3 75D EPA rated range = (0.24*2.43) * 259 / (0.21*2.36) = 304.8 miles.

I was just going thru all the computations that you did. Amazing job coming up with the computed range!

 

[hillestadk]

Love the google document that estimates model 3 reservation delivery dates. Out of curiosity did I have to be a model S owner at the time of my reservation to get priority? I am taking delivery of a Model S this week, will it help my delivery date?

 

[justg0]

Love the google document that estimates model 3 reservation delivery dates. Out of curiosity did I have to be a model S owner at the time of my reservation to get priority? I am taking delivery of a Model S this week, will it help my delivery date?

It will, at least that's what my sales advisor told me.

 

[justg0]

My sales advisor just sent me quote for an AP1 75D inventory car that has 8% discount. It will cost me the same as the 60D that I have on order. It is ready to go, I can get it now.

The way I see it:

AP1 75D:
1. I can use the extra range right now
2. I can use AP1 right now
3. I get good value for the car (?)
4. I know exactly what I am getting

AP2 60D:
1. It has better AP, but for the next few months probably at par or worse than AP1. After that it will be better, but will it be twice as good as AP1 (as it costs double)?
2. A year from now, FSD maybe, but it will cost me another 4K
3. I pay a premium to get the new car
4. Too many unknowns with new technology
5. I can upgrade to 75D for 9K more

 

[MP3Mike]

5. I can upgrade to 75D for 9K more

Have you verified that cost? I assume that since they raised the price of a 60 by $2,000 and that the difference to upgrade to a 75 is now only $6,500 that an after the fact upgrade would now cost you $7,000.