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AP2 Pricing
- Thread starter flamingoezz
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- Model 3
chipmunk
Member
I think this is wishful thinking. As Autopilot becomes more capable it becomes more valuable, regardless of whether hardware costs drop or software is already developed. So far the trend has been upward. I think the only thing that could pressure Tesla to lower the cost of autopilot (which is very expensive to develop from a software standpoint) would be other companies offering similar capability for less....and that will likely not happen before Model 3 starts delivery. Rather than "early adopter tax" I think it's more similar to "discount for investing now in capability to be delivered in the future".
Foxhound199
Member
Hmm, couple things worry me here. First off, the cost of this hardware is going to be sunk into every Model 3 whether people choose the option or not and, at $8000, it's probably not cheap for Tesla or its customers. Margins on the Model 3 aren't likely to be as high as S or X either, so making a base model turn a profit was already probably a hard problem. Now your autopilot hardware is costing potentially thousands dollars more to install. Of course, none of this is a problem if your customers eagerly agree to shell out the dough. Tesla clearly thinks they will, but I'm not so sure. Model 3 owners are going to be more cost conscious, and many will be second wave adopters. That is, they saw the amazing success of the Model S and used that to make their decision about the 3. This wait and see approach might carry over to self-driving cars as well. If they grossly miscalculate how much interest there will be in autonomous driving, the profitability of the Model 3 could take a serious hit.
ummgood
Member
Personally I am prepared to pay for the enhanced auto-pilot but I WILL NOT be paying the $3k for the fully autonomous. Not because I don't want it but the gamble is too high for me. Right now there is a huge IF on the order page "REGULATORY APPROVAL". People this is a huge IF. Elon is correctly assuming that safety would convince lawmakers to add regulations for self driving cars. But that isn't how the government in the US works anymore. For the same reason that Elon can't sell cars direct in Texas and other states will be the same potential reason he'll never get approval for self-driving cars for a long time.
Imagine if the dealer association in Texas realizes that if these self driving cars take off they will sell less cars. Why? Because even Elon stated that while someone's car is sitting in a parking lot while they are at work it could be used as ride sharing. If you have a lot of people realize they don't need to buy a car because a driver less car is easily available to take them where they want to go that potentially removes demand for lots of the population to buy a car. This means a lot of car dealerships go out of business similar to what happened during the last recession. I am 100% confident that they'll do whatever they can to bribe regulators to prevent this from happening.
Even in my situation I think we could go from a 2 car family to potentially a 1 car family. So instead of buying a new car every 5 years (to prevent double payments) we could drive the same car for 10 years and only have a payment 50% of the time. Once I get to work I could send the car home so my wife can use it throughout the day. Then when she is done picking up kids from school send it back to work to pick me up.
With all that said I really would love to have a car that has autonomy. I am going to take the 1k gamble (if that is what it is) to not add the feature until I know darn well it is approved. Then I'll pay the 4k to enable it. Because if for any reason it doesn't get approved I paid 3k for software that can never be used.
Imagine if the dealer association in Texas realizes that if these self driving cars take off they will sell less cars. Why? Because even Elon stated that while someone's car is sitting in a parking lot while they are at work it could be used as ride sharing. If you have a lot of people realize they don't need to buy a car because a driver less car is easily available to take them where they want to go that potentially removes demand for lots of the population to buy a car. This means a lot of car dealerships go out of business similar to what happened during the last recession. I am 100% confident that they'll do whatever they can to bribe regulators to prevent this from happening.
Even in my situation I think we could go from a 2 car family to potentially a 1 car family. So instead of buying a new car every 5 years (to prevent double payments) we could drive the same car for 10 years and only have a payment 50% of the time. Once I get to work I could send the car home so my wife can use it throughout the day. Then when she is done picking up kids from school send it back to work to pick me up.
With all that said I really would love to have a car that has autonomy. I am going to take the 1k gamble (if that is what it is) to not add the feature until I know darn well it is approved. Then I'll pay the 4k to enable it. Because if for any reason it doesn't get approved I paid 3k for software that can never be used.
We are well on our way to the "affordable" $75k Model 3.
N5329K
Active Member
I won't be checking the "full autonomy" box. A reliable highway cruise control and collision avoidance system is fine. A "drive on, Jeeves" system that will allow the person sitting in the driver's chair to zone out is of no interest.
Robin
Robin
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If Tesla wants people to add their cars in their ride sharing fleet, they will absolutely have to bring the price down. One of the messages from the Master Plan-Part Deux, was that you could have your car work for you to help make the car more affordable. But, $8,000 to be eligible for that is steep. How many rides would be needed just to pay the $8,000? On top of that, while your car is out there "working" for you, it's adding on the miles driven which causes the car to depreciate more and i's also more electricity you will have to replace once the car is back at your house, costing you more money. There's also the fact that someone is using your car without you in it. Who knows what they will do to the inside of your car. It's just not worth it. I'm still not convinced the $5,000 is worth the price for the Enhanced AP. IMO, all the hardware for L5 should come standard in all the vehicles and the cost to unlock full autonomy should be around $3-$5k, but will be waved if the car is added to the shared fleet and used accordingly and the use of the Super Charges should be free if the cars are used in the fleet (or you get a higher percentage from the ride fee).
With that said, I still think it's amazing the technology is almost there for this to even be obtainable. Congrats to Tesla for this!
With that said, I still think it's amazing the technology is almost there for this to even be obtainable. Congrats to Tesla for this!
If Elon follows your thinking, he won't sell this software to many M3 owners. We are not talking about the millionaires buying S and X for whom $10k is pocket change. I intend to wait on purchasing the software until it is much cheaper than $8k (much less your estimate of $10k post delivery). The price will come down dramatically or it won't sell in large numbers.8K the day you buy it or 10K the following day. They are not offering the same price for the same product or even a reasonable premium to upgrade later. They are gouging you if you can't afford it day 1 or want to see how the technology develops before investing in it.
If that is Elon's though as well, I hope he plans on bulking up the base battery a bit
If there was a significant difference between the $3K AP1 and $5K AP2 outside of the hardware, it would be easier to stomach. I'm not an expert on AP1, but the new version appears to do much of the same, maybe just with a bit more confidence in its safety to perform the actions
From the Tesla site
Enhanced Autopilot adds these new capabilities to the Tesla Autopilot driving experience. Your Tesla will:
- Match speed to traffic conditions -- it already uses the car in front of you (and the car in front of them) to slow your speed and uses the speed limit to give you a cap
- Keep within a lane - Lane keeping was part of the standard safety features I thought.
- Automatically change lanes without requiring driver input -- I think it currently changes lanes, but you need to use the blinker, right?
- Transition from one freeway to another - Didn't AP1 v8.0 add this?
- Exit the freeway when your destination is near -- And this?!
- Self-park when near a parking spot - It does this with a person in the car, not sure if they mean it'll do it now without a person present
- Be summoned to and from your garage - This was already possible
It really doesn't appear they added much, other than 2K to the price. Maybe by the time M3's hit the street, the hardware will be less expensive.
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
Many people purchasing the M3 can most likely afford, or have, an MS/MX. They will undoubtedly fork over the money...especially when leasing.
We own neither MS/MX, nor a comparably expensive vehicle, and we will be shelling out the cash (added lease cost) for full autonomy.
The price that Tesla is charging is cheap compared to peers. For example, on a new MB E class, in order to get driver assistance tech that's way shittier than AP 1, you gota check the box on Premium 3, which is a 10k option...
I really think on Model 3 they should allow people to choose among several options and not install the hardware on all cars in order to control price. E.g., customers can choose AP1 for 2.5k, AP1+ for 5k, and full AP2 for 8k. This way, Tesla can reduce production cost and customers have more options to spend what they want on the options.
I really think on Model 3 they should allow people to choose among several options and not install the hardware on all cars in order to control price. E.g., customers can choose AP1 for 2.5k, AP1+ for 5k, and full AP2 for 8k. This way, Tesla can reduce production cost and customers have more options to spend what they want on the options.
Now that I think about it, the hardware is already going to be there and you are only paying to unlock the features. I guess you can add your vehicle to the fleet without paying to unlock full autonomous driving, it would only activate if its traveling to pick someone up from the ride sharing app. As others have said, $8k is a hard pill to swallow.
davidc18
Active Member
I don't expect the AP price to go down for the M3. Tesla needs to make money and AP is their crown jewel. It will be just like the P models, the P100 is twice the price of the S60. If you want it, you will pay. It is the Tesla way.
arjay
member
What he said... I absolutely agree! Do not need or want AP2
What decreases over time is the cost of equivalent hardware, not necessarily the software that runs on the hardware. Since the hardware is built into all of the cars and everyone is paying for it what you're paying for with the AP and autonomous upgrade prices is the software. In fact your getting a pretty good price on it since there are no upgrade fees, no additional licenses needed, and the updates are timely and automatic. Is it expensive? Yes. Is it a better overall product? Yep. Is it worth it? That's up to each individual, if you don't think so then don't get the options.
They aren't going to get to the $20-$25K car. Elon has said that the $35K base of the Model 3 is probably as low as they'll go.
The cost of the hardware isn't $8,000. Or rather, it could be, but the $8,000 fee everyone is talking about now is the cost to turn on teh feature - you could consider it a software activation fee. While there is a cost for the hardware, it is probably relatively inexpensive compared to the software. And getting hundreds of thousands of units will lower their cost significantly.
correction: $8k today versus $10k to add software later in 2-3 years. By then i assume Autopilot 3.0 hardware will be rolling out also. Just like with phones, if you are chasing the bleeding edge tech, you will always be waiting. Its probably best to prioritize features according to need and budget.
Fat chance of the "average" Model 3 being a physically barebones stripper model.
Well, AP is not a required feature for people, so if people want to skip paying for it, they will. The hardware itself is likely a small fraction of the 8000 dollar cost, and Tesla will also be benefitting from the data all new cars will be sending back to Tesla about driving habits and roads, so people passing on the feature might not be as painful to Tesla long term as some might think. I also think Tesla is putting in a bit for insurance to cover themselves financially if anything goes wrong with AP activated. Elon did say Tesla would take responsibility for accidents with the Autonomous software activated, Tesla must have budgeted something in there for insurance to cover their asses.
That isn't what he said. He said that your insurance should deal with it, but if it was a major deficiency in the Tesla tech that they would take responsibility.
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