Are the Model X mules close to the final version?

[bonnie]

Exactly Paul; thank you. I, and some others, have been urging caution about the mules since sightings began last Fall.

@AnxietyRanger: It's VERY bad form to start suggesting insider information just because you finally realize that those people might have been right all along.

Shocker. Never mind close to 5 years of experience watching Tesla Motors & how things are done. All people have to do is remember Diarmuid at last year's TMC Connect conference, clearly stating that you don't 'get ahead of the boss'. But someone must have told me. Because, y'know ... -hair fluff-.

In fairness, we still don't know. We won't know until we actually see the production version.

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And how many times have I clearly stated that I would never post insider info, that if I signed an NDA I'd go silent, etc? And certain posters on this forum have actually stated in the past that I had a responsibility to the forum to do so, rather than honor personal relationships. I've also clearly stated that unlike some other things announced by Tesla, everyone EVERYONE at Tesla has been rock-solid silent on the Model X, per instructions from above.

But no, I must have insider info to have an opinion different from the crowd. smh.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I'm guessing I'm still not heard. It's OK.

There is a difference between experience and exposure. Even without outright confidential confirmation, people who are close to Tesla may know more than those who are basing everything on distant public information only - thus it is hard to compare notes, when this factor remains. Some of us are privy to more than others simply by the nature of their "network".

Even I am privy to some things not the average TMC member is privy of because some people outside of TMC talk to me. That is probably peanuts compared to what long-timers may hear through the grapevine.

Of course, a completely different group are insiders who might get something out of Tesla for one reason or another. Even press works under embargo at times. But that may not be relevant in this context, just an example.

 

[NigelM]

Kindly refrain from imposing other people's opinions on myself.

Do not confuse JST's bet with my opinion. I am not on JST's side, nor am I against JST.

Perhaps you should read your own posts AR; you're the one suggesting insider information...they're your words, not JST's. It's quite possible that I'm wrong about Model X but to imply something subterfuge, just because Tesla admits only 30% commonality with Model S and therefore globs of your minute analysis might be wrong, is bordering on libel.

 

[JST]

Perhaps you should read your own posts AR; you're the one suggesting insider information...they're your words, not JST's. It's quite possible that I'm wrong about Model X but to imply something subterfuge, just because Tesla admits only 30% commonality with Model S and therefore globs of your minute analysis might be wrong, is bordering on libel.

To be fair, I didn't read AR's post as attributing that view to me...but to be clear, I don't in any, way, shape or form believe that anyone with any real inside info is posting on this forum (apart from the leaks we saw from people who appear linked to suppliers, who aren't TMC regulars, anyway). That would be dishonorable and more than kind of dumb.

And besides, if I believed that, I wouldn't have made the bet that I did. :tongue:

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Perhaps you should read your own posts AR; you're the one suggesting insider information...they're your words, not JST's. It's quite possible that I'm wrong about Model X but to imply something subterfuge, just because Tesla admits only 30% commonality with Model S and therefore globs of your minute analysis might be wrong, is bordering on libel.

I sincerely believe any misrepresentation felt by the other - and I assure you it is mutual - is unintended. It certainly is on my part. I don't think your would be using any NDA information. As I said, by confidence I referred to whatever grapevine people may have. That puts us as a community in different positions. I don't know if your position differs from mine at all.

As for my views on the mules. I am more than willing to admit when my analysis is wrong, but not when it wasn't my opinion in the first place: I was a believer in the larger battery - and I couldn't possibly call whether or not Model X mules are final. This has been my position all along. My only position regarding the mules is that we can learn things form them, like perhaps we now have learned with the spoiler (which many ridiculed me for). But even then I can't be sure the spoiler appears in final edition.

Laugh to me about wild musing on A pillar video and my pedantic searches for opposing-side charge ports all you want, that I deserve and can laugh at myself too for my imagination, but I kindly ask do not attribute the opinion's of other to me. I'm sure there is plenty of funny and mistaken material in my stuff as it is, no need to add to it the potential sins of others.

 

[NigelM]

I sincerely believe any misrepresentation felt by the other...I kindly ask do not attribute the opinion's of other to me.

Dude, they're your words no-one else's:

...insider information...

...confidential information....

...confidential information...

Denying you said those things only flies if you go back and edit the posts, and even then the denial isn't true.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Let it me clear that this musing is not about anyone on this thread, just general pondering of the difficulty of estimating the sources and background of online conversation.

To be fair, I didn't read AR's post as attributing that view to me...but to be clear, I don't in any, way, shape or form believe that anyone with any real inside info is posting on this forum (apart from the leaks we saw from people who appear linked to suppliers, who aren't TMC regulars, anyway). That would be dishonorable and more than kind of dumb.

And besides, if I believed that, I wouldn't have made the bet that I did. :tongue:

I agree, I don't think anyone under NDA is (perhaps beyond some clear new-member leaks from suppliers as you said) here breaking it. But there are many levels of confidential information.

For example press gets confidential information under an embargo at times. They will keep it secret, but it may affect the way they write prior to reveal. In the case of Tesla Model X it wouldn't be impossible that they showed something under embargo. It was speculated way back they might do that to first Signature deliveries to receive earliest orders, but personally I find the Founders only story more likely as first deliveries.

Then there is the grapevine - you have contacts, that maybe hint to something through action or inaction, wink and nod kind of thing, friends who get to know stuff and spill a little beans under confidence. It happens in all industries a lot. Of course this type of information can mislead too, if the grapevine amplifies wrong signals or is sufficiently disconnected from the actual decision makers either over time or distance.

As an example, the September leakster said Model X nosecone is gone. Let's believe for a moment that was real, although we don't know that. So, all fine and well, maybe they heard it through the grapevine or even had insider information directly. But it was a year ago. We can't trust that, because the distance over time is such that we don't know if things have changed.

So, a complicated issue.

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Dude, they're your words no-one else's:

Denying you said those things only flies if you go back and edit the posts, and even then the denial isn't true.

I have not gone back to edit the messages, I am clarifying to you what I mean. Maybe the questions in the message I used as examples could be read more suggestively than I intended. I am sorry about that. I was describing the problem of potentially different levels of contacts creating different layers of knowledge in a community, not trying to assert motivations to anyone, let alone suggest anything sinister.

In any case, my apologies for this detour. I truly wish we can all just get along and I'll shut up.

 

[CurrentRide]

The comment that the MX only shares 30% of its parts with the current MS line does not preclude a closer match after the next iteration of the MS with a refreshed interior, which should follow shortly thereafter.

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For what it is worth, AR, you seem very reasonable, if a bit obsessed. If the early sig reservation holders have inside knowledge, it is apparent that they will not or cannot say anything, so we shouldn't push them on it. That being said, I have appreciated your detailed analyses and think that the rest of us Tesla peons are grown up to know that your musings are speculative. Keep it coming.

 

[Twiddler]

Just what he wanted. The thread has become about him. Out of control.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

For what it is worth, AR, you seem very reasonable, if a bit obsessed. If the early sig reservation holders have inside knowledge, it is apparent that they will not or cannot say anything, so we shouldn't push them on it. That being said, I have appreciated your detailed analyses and think that the rest of us Tesla peons are grown up to know that your musings are speculative. Keep it coming.

Sometimes, that's what it takes to tackle a controversial or otherwise difficult topic beyond the surface. Thank you for a reasonable comment, it is good to see some get the point.

I have no idea if early Signature holdings might allow for insider knowledge in the case of Model X. It could be that it doesn't or that Signature status is irrelevant, however some people might of course have contacts for other reasons for example.

I guess a pet theory on TMC has been that for us to see Model X when deliveries start, first Signature orders need to be finalized in private. I'm not sure if that is the case, although it isn't impossible of course. Starting deliveries with Founders Series might also be enough and could be done in confidence easier.

We will know in due course when Model X launches if someone was in the prior know, perhaps.

 

[Newb]

From the press call today:

20:32
Q: You've been tweaiking the Model S-- any idea on a body redesign?
A: Our focus is currently on the X -- and getting that done. At the end of the day, the X was supposed to have a lot of commonality with the S -- but now only 30% in common between the different cars.

...only 30% in common between X and S? Didn't expect this, tbh.

...sorry, I forgot to say something important up there on page 21:

"Round 67! Fight!"

[audience half asleep, some snoring, others munching popcorn, waiting for some knock-out event]

:wink:

 

[AnxietyRanger]

...sorry, I forgot to say something important up there on page 21:

"Round 67! Fight!"

[audience half asleep, some snoring, others munching popcorn, waiting for some knock-out event]

:wink:

Nah, the Model X will be launched soon enough. The need for speculating is almost over (yay!) - and the need for fighting, I'd say, is over. Shortly we will see who guessed what right. I'm sure we all got things wrong too.

TMC is a great forum and a community. Let's try to keep it that way, I think we've made some progress too. We all have a passion for Tesla, even if we express it differently. I'll try to tone down my musings accordingly.

 

[NigelM]

I have no idea if early Signature holdings might allow for insider knowledge in the case of Model X.

Despite the fact that you've been told umpteen times that long time Sig holders contributing here have neither insider knowledge nor contacts blabbing to them....

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Despite the fact that you've been told umpteen times that long time Sig holders contributing here have neither insider knowledge nor contacts blabbing to them....

My problem is, I know that not to be completely true. Maybe we don't have the same info, so maybe we know differently. I am not referring to any insight on bonnie or you, to be clear.

But even if it were completely true, my point is, people with different networks of contacts are often privy to things others are not.

 

[ohmman]

I will say, the jokes or implications about the early signature holders knowing things, or already having their cars, or having seen them.. get very old very quickly. And that's from an observer, not the recipient. Bonnie seems to be the recipient of them, and I'm guessing she feels the same way I do about them. Pete Holmes says it best in his "Must Be Free" bit, here.

 

[bonnie]

I will say, the jokes or implications about the early signature holders knowing things, or already having their cars, or having seen them.. get very old very quickly. And that's from an observer, not the recipient. Bonnie seems to be the recipient of them, and I'm guessing she feels the same way I do about them. Pete Holmes says it best in his "Must Be Free" bit, here.

Have you been reading my thought bubbles again?

 

[1208]

Fingers crossed they are decoys and the real design is more like this...

 

[pmadflyer]

Fingers crossed they are decoys and the real design is more like this...

View attachment 87791

The new iCar.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I will say, the jokes or implications about the early signature holders knowing things, or already having their cars, or having seen them.. get very old very quickly. And that's from an observer, not the recipient. Bonnie seems to be the recipient of them, and I'm guessing she feels the same way I do about them. Pete Holmes says it best in his "Must Be Free" bit, here.

I have no idea what bonnie knows or doesn't know, so not about her - but the implication that TMC wouldn't have active members (let alone throwaway accounts) more privy than others is not true. It is just the nature of a community like this.

 

[AnOutsider]

I have no idea what bonnie knows or doesn't know, so not about her - but the implication that TMC wouldn't have active members (let alone throwaway accounts) more privy than others is not true. It is just the nature of a community like this.

It is. And unless they share, that knowledge is unavailable to us. So why even dwell on it?