Audi, Porsche and Mercedes preparing a rival for Tesla

[peet365]

On the downside, it will eventually take the "art" out of vehicle propulsion systems. There is a sexiness to turbochargers, cam designs, exhaust tuning, electronic ignitions and timing, and all of the fine complexities needed to make the most out of an internal combustion engine. In 20 years, once the design of the electric vehicle "skateboard" base has been more fully refined, there's not so much to do. Electric motors just aren't that complex, and the opportunities for improvement are far less. Vehicle design will be all about the cosmetics & features, and no longer about the design of the drive system.

My 2 cents anyway.[/QUOTE]


I would say that there is huge room for imporvement even with electric motor. Electric motors are in production for 150 year. However if you think about it that Tesla wanted to outsource motor but they couldnt find right one on the market and had to produce it themselves it gives you an idea that it is not that simple. Also power electronics are very expensive, but probably improving much faster than batteries. I am not sure that electric motor with power electronics used in Model S is cheaper than regular 200hp ICE engine. So the sexiness you are talking about will be lost for sure, but there still will be same amount of appeal in improving parameters as f.e. in computers.

 

[artsci]

On the downside, it will eventually take the "art" out of vehicle propulsion systems.

This "art" is all about extracting power and performance from a substance that is essentially poison. I won't miss the "art" one bit.

 

[Zythryn]

The question is do you want to hear and smell your art, or FEEL it?

 

[William13]

I believe there is as much art in the design of future electric propulsion systems. There may be mild plateaus but software, tires and batteries and weight are all tweekable. There are new discoveries to be made. The future will be better.

 

[tezco]

The question is do you want to hear and smell your art, or FEEL it?

The is some mystique to fire breathing and smoke belching monsters. My grampa used to tke me down to Union Station where the engineers would take me up into the cab of the last of the steam engines. There is nothing like the smell of coal and steam and a throbbing beast under your feet. And there is nothing sexier than hearing a plane with 4 Pratt & Whitney supercharged 28 cylinder engines flying overhead....

 

[Ride Long]

These all can't come soon enough. As much as we Tesla fan-boys love the car, does anyone not think Teslas will become better, sooner with three wealthy, worthy competitors breathing down their necks? I say let the competition begin.

I am holding an Apple iPhone 6 in my hand that is fantastic; I have to believe one of the reasons it's so damn good is because Samsung/Google are making awesome phones also.

 

[Doug_G]

Bring it!

 

[sandpiper]

I believe there is as much art in the design of future electric propulsion systems. There may be mild plateaus but software, tires and batteries and weight are all tweekable. There are new discoveries to be made. The future will be better.

I can't see it. Certainly there will be improvements - in batteries particularly. But electric motors are VERY efficient, small, quiet and powerful. Inverters are the same. There just isn't as much gap between current state of the art and the idealized propulsion system. If you compare this to the enormous conglomeration of mechanical gadgetery in a high end ICE drive train, there simply isn't the same amount of opportunity for improvement in the performance and reliability of every little part.

In 20 years, the electric drivetrain will be absolutely bulletproof, require almost no maintenance, and be very low cost. The batteries may still be the exception, but who knows?

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

I don't know about the "art" part. I'd rather take the "simple" smartphone in my pocket than that beautifully designed and refined punched card machine in the basement.

 

[Johan]

I can't see it. Certainly there will be improvements - in batteries particularly. But electric motors are VERY efficient, small, quiet and powerful. Inverters are the same. There just isn't as much gap between current state of the art and the idealized propulsion system. If you compare this to the enormous conglomeration of mechanical gadgetery in a high end ICE drive train, there simply isn't the same amount of opportunity for improvement in the performance and reliability of every little part.

In 20 years, the electric drivetrain will be absolutely bulletproof, require almost no maintenance, and be very low cost. The batteries may still be the exception, but who knows?

Tesla know this. For practical purposes the drive train is already near ideal. That's why innovations will take place in these fields:
Batteries (weight/volume reductions per energy unit + cycle life + safety)
Safety apart from batteries
And least but not least:
Software, software, software! Autonomous driving is just part of it. The car going from being something mechanical in to something that is just as much an information technology - and we all know software is in most cases more important than hardware for the final product and experience.

 

[Lloyd]

As important as the technology in the car is the charging system buildout, and unless these big three agree to participate in and contribute to the supercharger buildout, they are many years behind in that front. A great car without any means to charge it for distance driving is worthless!!

 

[MassModel3]

And there is nothing sexier than hearing a plane with 4 Pratt & Whitney supercharged 28 cylinder engines flying overhead....

Ah, the smell of jet fuel, the roar of jet engines... That's the sounds and smells of freedom! (sorry, I couldn't resist -- please note my F-15 logo under my name!)

 

[Phil Seastrand]

As important as the technology in the car is the charging system buildout, and unless these big three agree to participate in and contribute to the supercharger buildout, they are many years behind in that front. A great car without any means to charge it for distance driving is worthless!!

And I'd hate to see each manufacturer come up with their own proprietary charging solution. It's already bad enough.

 

[Ostkaka]

I don't see how people can say that these companies don't have a chance against Tesla. Of course they do. They have lots of experience and highly skilled people making the best of cars for centuries. I think they will adapt very rapidly and with great succes. I'm sure they are developing the technology right now. Then they wait and refine the tech until the market is ready to throw money at them.

I think the largest source of competitive pressure from these companies against Tesla, is their experience in comfort. Even if a Merc isn't the fastest, most efficient nor most expensive car, it's got a certain feeling to it, and a sense of comfort and luxury that i think that the Teslas lack. Hopefully the Model X will be more competitive in this regard.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think the largest source of competitive pressure from these companies against Tesla, is their experience in comfort. Even if a Merc isn't the fastest, most efficient nor most expensive car, it's got a certain feeling to it, and a sense of comfort and luxury that i think that the Teslas lack. Hopefully the Model X will be more competitive in this regard.

Which is first on the list of importance in a car (if you're going to live in it). :smile:

 

[stephenpace]

Inverters are the same.

Even a tiny amount of improvement for inverters helps a lot because you are using them every time you power the car. I recall one of the JB videos were he said Tesla wasn't looking to do vehicle to grid anytime soon due to inverter efficiency since you lose some power going in, and you'd lose some going out. Perhaps Google will help some in this:

Googles $1M Challenge: A Laptop-Sized Solar Inverter : Greentech Media

 

[Arb1ter]

I don't see how people can say that these companies don't have a chance against Tesla. Of course they do. They have lots of experience and highly skilled people making the best of cars for centuries. I think they will adapt very rapidly and with great succes. I'm sure they are developing the technology right now. Then they wait and refine the tech until the market is ready to throw money at them.

Companies good at gasoline cars don't want to admit that their products may be going obsolete (this is changing with Tesla's approach of direct competition).

Most knowledge useful for making good engines and transmissions has nothing to do with making good batteries, inverters, and motors.

Tesla's tech advantage is ridiculous, and their rapidly-growing Supercharger network is a big selling point.

 

[Ostkaka]

@Krugerrand. Indeed it is important, especially to the most conservative.

@ Arb1ter. I agree that it is very different. But these companies have probably been studying hybrid drive-trains for a while and already have a lot of electronics in their cars. Tesla is leading, but when these manufacturers see that they will have return on the investment, they will catch up really quick. They don't need funding and they don't start from scratch.

What will stop them from competing is probably gonna be battery supply/price rather than technology inferiority. If they don't start building their own GF soon

 

[Lloyd]

And I'd hate to see each manufacturer come up with their own proprietary charging solution. It's already bad enough.

That would mean a 'Car full of adapters' :scared:

 

[sandpiper]

Companies good at gasoline cars don't want to admit that their products may be going obsolete (this is changing with Tesla's approach of direct competition).

Most knowledge useful for making good engines and transmissions has nothing to do with making good batteries, inverters, and motors.

Tesla's tech advantage is ridiculous, and their rapidly-growing Supercharger network is a big selling point.

Inverters & motors are commodity technology. There's nothing there that can't be bought off the shelf. The batteries.... there maybe something there in the way that the cells are packaged, cooled and heated, but I'm left scratching my head as to how complex it could really be? And I'm even more puzzled as to why it couldn't be easily reverse engineered. The cells themselves are purchased from Panasonic, and as far as I know, Panasonic has nothing massively better than what LG offers. They both make laptop batteries, after all.

The supercharger network is unique - but if the big 3 were serious about EVs, they could certainly work out a deal with Tesla that they have access the Tesla's network, and then would start providing their own supercharger stations compatible with Tesla's. That's a win win.

The car itself is a unique and brilliantly innovative for sure. But once you've seen the basic skateboard concept cast into a working vehicle, producing something similar is not rocket science.

I think they're just not serious about EVs at this point, because they don't have to be. They just don't see the demand at a profitable price, and they're doing okay on selling conventional cars. Why blow a bunch of money on producing a car that almost certainly won't be profitable? Let Tesla take the risk and prove the market and refine the technology. Produce a bunch of half-measure PHEVs to satisfy regulations and to use as R&D platforms. Try to make them at least slightly profitable.

I would be shocked, if they didn't all have from-scratch EV designs on the drawing board that are more-or-less ready to kick into detail design / commercialization if things change. And if goes big, I'm sure that one of the big companies would look to take over Tesla itself.