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Autonomous Car Progress

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Map of operational and testing robotaxis in the US.

F4tGoVoasAEElPM
 
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It's not a coincidence that the operational locations are only those that receive minimal rainfall. Plenty of testing, but no LIDAR-based AV has yet become operational anywhere there is significant precipitation. How long do we think it will take?

View attachment 969267

Operational will lag behind testing. But we've seen significant progress. We know from Waymo's videos that they are doing driverless in moderate rain in SF. They are also testing in heavier rain areas like Bellevue, WA and Orlando or Miami, FL. Back in December, Dolgov provided an update on handling rain:


When will robotaxis be operational in heavy rain cities? My guess is 1 year, maybe 2.
 
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Heads up: Whatever it was is gone now.

It is back now.


Here is the text, in case the tweet disappears:
The way we travel is evolving- from hands-off to eyes-off driving experiences, to driverless AV fleets. At #IAAMobility2023, hear from Mobileye SVP of AV
@JohannJungwirth about how this shift is not only revolutionizing transportation but also giving us time back and making mobility more accessible.Join us in person or virtually on September 6 at 4 PM CEST: https://bit.ly/4qTYLsq
 
How long did it take Waymo to go from testing in-car driver supervised L4 services to a paid driverless service?
What official state requirements were there (Arizona & California)?
This could be a guide to how long Tesla will take - 5+ years??
 
How long did it take Waymo to go from testing in-car driver supervised L4 services to a paid driverless service?
What official state requirements were there (Arizona & California)?
This could be a guide to how long Tesla will take - 5+ years??

You are making too much sense. You need to get with the Tesla program. Tesla does not need to get all those silly permits and follow regulations. Elon says Tesla will just train FSD until FSD is superhuman and then regulators will just accept it and let Tesla remove driver supervision. It will be that easy. LOL.
 
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How long did it take Waymo to go from testing in-car driver supervised L4 services to a paid driverless service?
What official state requirements were there (Arizona & California)?
This could be a guide to how long Tesla will take - 5+ years??


In many states you can launch a paid driverless service any time you feel you have a working one.

The only official state requirements in such places are for you to state you feel your system works and obeys all traffic laws, and to state you have insurance.

That's it.

Nobody checks- they just take your word for it.

California is NOT like that- but many other states are.
 
How long did it take Waymo to go from testing in-car driver supervised L4 services to a paid driverless service?
11 years.
What official state requirements were there (Arizona & California)?
Lots in Kalifornia, almost none in AZ.
This could be a guide to how long Tesla will take - 5+ years??
Tesla is special. Didn't you hear -- they use neural nets!
 
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How long did it take Waymo to go from testing in-car driver supervised L4 services to a paid driverless service?
What official state requirements were there (Arizona & California)?
This could be a guide to how long Tesla will take - 5+ years??
Already did the math before

Waymo started from 2009 to 2019 = 11 years before they started official driverless service.

Tesla started working on autonomy in 2015 to now 2023 = 9 years, no driverless service yet

Tesla has 2 years (2025) to reach where Waymo was in 2019, to launch a fully autonomous taxi service without safety drivers somewhere in a 50 square mile radius. If they do it before 2025 that would mean they beat Waymo and everyone else assuming they all started at the same time. But really waymo did have to invent everything from scratch as they went while Tesla has the benefit of having all the knowledge google has shared with their research.
 
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Amnon Shashua, CEO of Mobileye, announces that his A.I. pure play side hustle is valued at $1.4 billion and received $155 million in Series-C funding.
Quote: “The current round will fuel the growth of the company to reach our goal of developing the next level of AI with reasoning capabilities across multiple domains,” said founder and Chairman Prof. Amnon Shashua. ”We believe that the impact of AI21 Labs’ growth plans will be felt on a global scale quite soon,” he added.
/quote
Does "across multiple domains" includes driverless?
 
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