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Autonomous Car Progress
- Thread starter stopcrazypp
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- Autonomous Vehicles
There are two possibilities.
One possibility is he was simply surprised that there wasn't any questions regarding Tesla's approach.
The other possibility is he wanted to mock Tesla's approach on his own home turf, but no one was mentioning Tesla or Tesla's approach. Even after he posted that he still didn't get anything.
The "I thought you said questions about the AV industry..." was much funnier.
OUCH!
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Thanks for sharing. Very impressive. I especially like the commentary that describes the Planning and Driving Policy. It really shows the complexity of what the car has to consider and anticipate.
Thanks! I just watched a few minutes and will have to finish later. So far I really like the visualization display over the Tesla FSD beta version. Clearly shows the intended path, moving keep-out fences and stop lines etc. This is nicely done.
What I noticed is that there are a lot of jay walkers (very common in China) which is similar to the downtown SF scenes in some FSD beta drives (although it's not nearly as bad).
It's really bad in cities in India, Africa and other rapidly-developing places. I felt nearly incapable of crossing the street in India, while stooped-over old ladies were handling it just fine. There are no real crosswalks for blocks, and you basically have to put your life in the hands of not just one, but at least a dozen car, truck and scooter drivers bearing down on you. And you can't hesitate or change your mind because everyone is watching you proceed across, not slowing but subtly altering their trajectories to miss you by at least six inches, and the next driver over is already moving into any gap created by that altered trajectory. Of course, if you wait too long at the curb, you will quickly acquire a new friend to guide you across and then urge you into stores that fund the tourist-shepherd network.
I would never consider getting behind the wheel there. If they can make FSD autonomy work in those places, my town is a cakewalk.
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Agreed. I am from Taiwan, and what we consider as edge cases in US is normal daily driving in many Asian countries.
A big problem for autopilots is that in many poor countries people create and accept much higher risks that are unacceptable to us in the wealthier countries. I have a lot of experience with driving in Kenya.
One example from Kenya is the two-lane Nairobi – Mombasa highway with repair strips on either side. Drivers very often overtake in ways that force the oncoming traffic to drive off the road to avoid a head-on collision. Every Kenyan driver knows this, expects this, and acts accordingly.
When I take friends to Kenya who have to drive their rented car, I always have to give them a thorough lecture on the unwritten rules of Kenya road traffic, and this is one of the points I have to make. Another one is the Kenyan rule, "What I don't see, is not there."
Reducing the risk to European or American levels is impossible. You can get close, but it requires a lot of attention and a lot of extra time, like behind trucks that slowly creep up a hill, emitting dark clouds of smoke, because their Diesel engines do not auto-adapt to the thinner air in the highlands. Nairobi altitude is 1,600 m = 5,500 ft.
Then there are potholes, speed bumps, suicidal goats, etc. Can you imagine a speed bump on a 14-lane freeway with pedestrian zebra crossings? That's Thika Road for those in the know.
One of my rules is, never drive faster than 80 km/h = 50 mph anywhere in Kenya. The general speed limit is 100 km/h = 62 mph.
An autopilot that works well in Kenya would have to have superhuman abilities to detect potholes and speed bumps. And it could not drive in rain faster than walking speed, because, like humans, it cannot know how deep a puddle is. Is it just a little puddle or a deep pothole? The only possible solution for driving in rain would be to know all potholes and their depths in advance.
One example from Kenya is the two-lane Nairobi – Mombasa highway with repair strips on either side. Drivers very often overtake in ways that force the oncoming traffic to drive off the road to avoid a head-on collision. Every Kenyan driver knows this, expects this, and acts accordingly.
When I take friends to Kenya who have to drive their rented car, I always have to give them a thorough lecture on the unwritten rules of Kenya road traffic, and this is one of the points I have to make. Another one is the Kenyan rule, "What I don't see, is not there."
Reducing the risk to European or American levels is impossible. You can get close, but it requires a lot of attention and a lot of extra time, like behind trucks that slowly creep up a hill, emitting dark clouds of smoke, because their Diesel engines do not auto-adapt to the thinner air in the highlands. Nairobi altitude is 1,600 m = 5,500 ft.
Then there are potholes, speed bumps, suicidal goats, etc. Can you imagine a speed bump on a 14-lane freeway with pedestrian zebra crossings? That's Thika Road for those in the know.
One of my rules is, never drive faster than 80 km/h = 50 mph anywhere in Kenya. The general speed limit is 100 km/h = 62 mph.
An autopilot that works well in Kenya would have to have superhuman abilities to detect potholes and speed bumps. And it could not drive in rain faster than walking speed, because, like humans, it cannot know how deep a puddle is. Is it just a little puddle or a deep pothole? The only possible solution for driving in rain would be to know all potholes and their depths in advance.
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jeewee3000
Active Member
Two influencers babbling about FSD. Dreadful.
Just the fact that they set LA driving as a proper difficult standard for FSD ("if it can do LA, then it's nearly complete" basically) is nonsense. LA has wide roads, decent markings, just lots of lanes and cars. The ignorance in both of these presenters is saddening. I know many TMC-ers like Gali but I found this video intolerable. The reason I watched parts was to check out the FSD reacting to situations. It has a long ways to go.
/endofrant
Hoping to see v9 soon.
mikes_fsd
Banned
There is something to be said about Lidar dominating the desert market!
** I'll see myself out!
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Mobileye is teaming up with Udelv to launch 35,000 driverless delivery vehicles by 2028:
"Intel subsidiary Mobileye is ratcheting up its autonomous vehicle ambitions and getting into delivery. The company said Monday it struck a deal with Udelv to supply its self-driving system to thousands of purpose-built autonomous delivery vehicles. The companies said they plan to put more than 35,000 autonomous vehicles dubbed Transporters on city streets by 2028. Commercial operations are slated to begin in 2023. Donlen, a U.S. commercial fleet leasing and management company, has made the first pre-order for 1,000 of these Udelv Transporters."
techcrunch.com
"Intel subsidiary Mobileye is ratcheting up its autonomous vehicle ambitions and getting into delivery. The company said Monday it struck a deal with Udelv to supply its self-driving system to thousands of purpose-built autonomous delivery vehicles. The companies said they plan to put more than 35,000 autonomous vehicles dubbed Transporters on city streets by 2028. Commercial operations are slated to begin in 2023. Donlen, a U.S. commercial fleet leasing and management company, has made the first pre-order for 1,000 of these Udelv Transporters."
Intel's Mobileye teams with Udelv to launch 35,000 driverless delivery vehicles by 2028 | TechCrunch
Intel subsidiary Mobileye is ratcheting up its autonomous vehicle ambitions and getting into delivery. The company said Monday it struck a deal with Udelv
techcrunch.com
bd7349
Member
Really nice breakdown of this paper that was put out by Stanford last fall (article link: here). The Tesla part starts right at 9 minutes in if you want to skip ahead, but the whole thing is worth listening to.
Elon's recent tweet on v9:
Could be what Tesla is doing with v9 considering Elon specifically mentioned how much better it is in bad weather. Really has me interested to see what the next beta is like.
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Tam
Well-Known Member
It looks like 2021 is finally the year that LIDAR has made it to consumer automotive use (not just exclusively for professional use like Waymo, Cruise...):
1) Toyota LS and Mirai Advanced Drive: It's an L2. It doesn't talk about city streets so I assume it's like from on-ramp to off-ramp Tesla Navigation on Autopilot for the highway only. It's been on sales starting 4/8/2021.
LS version L AWD= JPY15,340,000 = $140,222.17
LS version L AWD with Advance Drive= JPY16,320,000=$149,180.30
That's more than $9,000 for the option but by paying its competitor Tesla $10,000 FSD, Tesla will do city streets.
2) Honda Sensing Elite Traffic Jam Pilot: It's an L3 with a maximum speed of 31 MPH (50 kph). Auto Lane Change still has to be initiated by the driver's flipping the turn signal stalk (Tesla has an option to skip the driver's confirmation). Only 100 Honda Legend Hybrid EX with the system are for lease in Japan starting on 3/5/2021 for about $102,000. Its law holds the car manufacturer responsible while the system is activated and it's totally legal for the driver to be distracted with watching videos, reading e-mails... while the L3 system takes over.
And yes, the world will know that you have the system because you have to display the sign "Automated Drive" on the back of your car (currently in Japan only because the system is not sold outside of Japan):
Audi A8 also has that similar L3 since 2017 but it has not released to consumers because the laws were ambiguous with L3 driving: California consumers would still be ticketed for watching the video, holding the cell phone to talk while letting the L3 do the driving for them.
It'll be interesting to see how many accidents these LIDAR cars will get while being in the hand of consumers.
1) Toyota LS and Mirai Advanced Drive: It's an L2. It doesn't talk about city streets so I assume it's like from on-ramp to off-ramp Tesla Navigation on Autopilot for the highway only. It's been on sales starting 4/8/2021.
LS version L AWD= JPY15,340,000 = $140,222.17
LS version L AWD with Advance Drive= JPY16,320,000=$149,180.30
That's more than $9,000 for the option but by paying its competitor Tesla $10,000 FSD, Tesla will do city streets.
2) Honda Sensing Elite Traffic Jam Pilot: It's an L3 with a maximum speed of 31 MPH (50 kph). Auto Lane Change still has to be initiated by the driver's flipping the turn signal stalk (Tesla has an option to skip the driver's confirmation). Only 100 Honda Legend Hybrid EX with the system are for lease in Japan starting on 3/5/2021 for about $102,000. Its law holds the car manufacturer responsible while the system is activated and it's totally legal for the driver to be distracted with watching videos, reading e-mails... while the L3 system takes over.
And yes, the world will know that you have the system because you have to display the sign "Automated Drive" on the back of your car (currently in Japan only because the system is not sold outside of Japan):
Audi A8 also has that similar L3 since 2017 but it has not released to consumers because the laws were ambiguous with L3 driving: California consumers would still be ticketed for watching the video, holding the cell phone to talk while letting the L3 do the driving for them.
It'll be interesting to see how many accidents these LIDAR cars will get while being in the hand of consumers.
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Wow, charmingly stupid aren't they
The sheer amount of verbal tics and annoying inflections are like, you know, it's so totally cool, right?To their credit they are reasonably aware and do seem to be understanding what FSD Beta is doing, and their technobabbling (and just general babbling) is right on par with the whole Elon philosophy. He did forget to edit out this part though at 19:17 "Elon keeps saying it's going to have this big improvement but it's like... [gestures futility]" - but at least he immediately retcons his own point with "and honestly it does."
Some good quotes:
1:30 - "I was like, oh s**t there is a stop sign there, but [inaudible] it sees it way before you do"
2:00 - "I kind of trust it more than some of my friends that drive" -
2:40 - "It's kind of like you're navigating a spaceship, that's how you probably feel on normal Autopilot, but even more on this, it's like, yeah got my command center [gestures to the display], scrolling with this little wheel [scrolls little wheel]. That just makes it go a little faster, little slower". - which is exactly how spaceships are controlled
4:20 - [referencing Lucid cars in the future] - "It's like you're gonna have a Ferrari, but you have to drive it.. that'll look so lame"
7:15 - "It's gonna turn left.. That's cool 'cause I don't even know where we're going"
10:25 - "Do you think a lot more people would pay for [FSD once it gets a bit better]?"
"[shrugs] meh, I may as well just be driving myself" - not the answer he was hoping for
14:35 - [talking about the UI] - "This is like when we have Ex Machina robots.. how are they going to navigate" - referencing the homicidal robot from the movie
Some FSD driving moments:
0:58 - disengagement, unable to bypass a single car with a wide pullout, and does get by a parked van "This is like a triple black diamond... it did that all by itself" - which BTW is sort of the definition of FSD
3:40 - disengagement for proceeding into green light while traffic is still in the intersection
4:10 - jump cut while it tries to change lane
14:05 - disengagement trying to cut in another lane, some discussion whether it was actually doing it better than the driver though
16:28 - jump cut while it swerves over double yellow line
17:04 - disengagement as it approaches blocking SUV
19:10 - ".. about one intervention per ride" - after having several disengagements and an unknown number of total disengagements from all the jump cuts
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