Autopilot 2.0

[ModelNforNerd]

Well, this is exactly what Elon answered with "we're doing the obvious thing". And I think it is the obvious thing to add AP 2.0 to TM3 if it is ready (and in use in the Model S/X).

... on the other hand, if the HW was not ready when the pencils were down for the Model 3, maybe the obvious thing is to wait for a later inclusion

I think "doing the obvious thing" depends on the question being asked.

Is it Model 3 Reveal 2?

Is it Autopilot 2.0?

Is it both in one event, where he says "and as of next week, all new S/X also ship with APv2.0 HW"?

He certainly knows how to keep us guessing/interested.

 

[JeffK]

I think "doing the obvious thing" depends on the question being asked.

Actually we know exactly what question was asked...
It was at the code conference. Here's a question from later in the night regarding the subject as well.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Actually we know exactly what question was asked...
The comment was made right after this video cuts off and after another questioner changes the subject.

I'm confused. If the comment was made right after the video cuts off, what was the video for?

 

[JeffK]

I'm confused. If the comment was made right after the video cuts off, what was the video for?

context ... and I think I'm totally wrong and the comment was made earlier in that night. But code conference is the relevant event. Plus, his face is priceless.

It's actually at 40 min into the interview the interviewer asks:

"That car will have autonomous for 35 [$35k]"
Elon responds:
"I have a... uh.. I'm going to do another Tesla event maybe at the end of the year. um... talk more about that." [nods]
"and so you could start here"
[laughter]
"umm.. it will be really big news if I start here um"
"we don't mind that"
[elon laughs]
"Let me just say that we're going to do the obvious thing"
[silence]
"okayyy"
[laughter]
"It's really obvious"
[more laughter]

 

[ModelNforNerd]

context ... and I think I'm totally wrong and the comment was made earlier in that night. But code conference is the relevant event. Plus, his face is priceless.

It's actually at 40 min into the interview the interviewer asks:

"That car will have autonomous for 35 [$35k]"
Elon responds:
"I have a... uh.. I'm going to do another Tesla event maybe at the end of the year. um... talk more about that." [nods]
"and so you could start here"
[laughter]
"umm.. it will be really big news if I start here um"
"we don't mind that"
[elon laughs]
"Let me just say that we're going to do the obvious thing"
[silence]
"okayyy"
[laughter]
"It's really obvious"
[more laughter]

my interpretation remains the same: you could go either way based on that Q+A. the cost of the Model 3 is mentioned. "that car".

and then "another Tesla event maybe at the end of the year".

so the obvious thing still, to me, depends on what "question" you were looking for an answer to. Model 3 or Autopilot.

we'll see "maybe at the end of the year"

 

[Model 3]

Actually we know exactly what question was asked...
It was at the code conference. Here's a question from later in the night regarding the subject as well.

It's here @39:35:

Context is Model 3
Question: That car will have autonomous for $35k?
Answer: I gonna do an another Tesla event - maybe at the end of the year and talk more about that.
Follow-up: But you can start here?
A: It'll be really big news if I start here
F: We don't mind that
A: Hehe - Let me just say that we are doing the obvious thing.
It's really obvious.

So now we have the question and context Is he still talking about Model 3? Or just the event? Or AP? And will that event he was talking about be a Model 3 event or an AP event? Or cup holders?
None of this q's is absolutely clear... (except maybe the latest )

 

[ModelNforNerd]

It's here @39:35:

Context is Model 3
Question: That car will have autonomous for $35k?
Answer: I gonna do an another Tesla event - maybe at the end of the year and talk more about that.
Follow-up: But you can start here?
A: It'll be really big news if I start here
F: We don't mind that
A: Hehe - Let me just say that we are doing the obvious thing.
It's really obvious.

So now we have the question and context Is he still talking about Model 3? Or just the event? Or AP? And will that event he was talking about be a Model 3 event or an AP event? Or cup holders?
None of this q's is absolutely clear... (except maybe the latest )

Yes, that was the point I was trying to make (uneloquently...coffee not as effective as I'd hoped this morning.....)

the whole exchange was ambiguous. the "obvious thing" is still rather open-ended

 

[JeffK]

Yes, that was the point I was trying to make (uneloquently...coffee not as effective as I'd hoped this morning.....)

the whole exchange was ambiguous. the "obvious thing" is still rather open-ended

I think it's simply a Muskism for I better not make anything public or else the board will chastise me.

in the last call he said the autonomous stuff they are currently doing internally will blow people's minds. It even blows his mind which is saying something.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I think it's simply a Muskism for I better not make anything public or else the board will chastise me.

in the last call he said the autonomous stuff they are currently doing internally will blow people's minds. It even blows his mind which is saying something.

I agree, we're in line to hear great things about APv2.0, but we're also due to hear great things about the Model 3.


So the planning question will arise....


does Elon dump it all on us at once, maybe at a Model 3 reveal 2 event, where the Beta mules drive the media around? and he gets to tell us it's "now available on newly built S/X models"....

or..

and the more I think about it, does he do it the other way around?

APv2.0 reveal in Q4, to allay some of the concerns surrounding AP, etc. Then Model 3 at the end of Q1?


If I was him...and it would be a little mean (but so am I)..... I'd run an APv2.0 event, featuring the S and X. And at the very end, I'd have the "pencils down" Model 3 beta drive itself past everyone, and then I'd say "see you in a few months!"

That would keep us busy on the forums through the winter.

 

[JeffK]

He's stated previously that they are holding back and can increase the number of pre-orders at any time. I think the event at the end of the year will be the reveal part 2 with the new autopilot and at that time it will be available on newer Model S/X (assuming new hardware is involved stereo cameras, etc).

The technical change is getting more mapping data. If you have Model S/X on the road which can collect data via the new sensors then when Model 3 drops it'll be pretty decent. Better still once more Model 3's hit the road.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

He's stated previously that they are holding back and can increase the number of pre-orders at any time. I think the event at the end of the year will be the reveal part 2 with the new autopilot and at that time it will be available on newer Model S/X (assuming new hardware is involved stereo cameras, etc).

The technical change is getting more mapping data. If you have Model S/X on the road which can collect data via the new sensors then when Model 3 drops it'll be pretty decent. Better still once more Model 3's hit the road.

I think the fact that someone outed a Model X that recently shipped with the double-camera housing on the windshield points to them being ready to quietly rollout the HW to the S and X.

And yes, I think the S and X will be v2-capable, but only have v1 software for a while, as the data gets collected, like you said.

EM said they'd need "a billion miles" before AP is considered out of (Tesla's definition of) Beta. That number will obviously be easier to achieve once you add another 300k+ vehicles to the data collection pool.

 

[malcolm]

But is it autopilot 2.0 on the Model 3 ??? And it'll also be appearing in the model S/X after that reveal as well

Absolutely.

Expect to see endless threads with titles like: "Just ordered and now Tesla upgrades AGAIN!"

 

[grommet]

I think the fact that someone outed a Model X that recently shipped with the double-camera housing on the windshield points to them being ready to quietly rollout the HW to the S and X.

Not a fact. The housing has never changed on the Model X. It's always been like that way, with one side empty and covered up. It's called bad reporting, using Facebook posts as a source.

A better hint would have been any change on the Model S when it was refreshed more recently. But, as we all know, there were zero changes re: camera, camera housing, or sensors.

 

[JeffK]

Not a fact. The housing has never changed on the Model X. It's always been like that way, with one side empty and covered up. It's called bad reporting, using Facebook posts as a source.

A better hint would have been any change on the Model S when it was refreshed more recently. But, as we all know, there were zero changes re: camera, camera housing, or sensors.

Tesla Model X delivered with dual front-facing camera housing hinting at Autopilot 2.0

I think all new models will come with the hardware only after the second reveal.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Not a fact. The housing has never changed on the Model X. It's always been like that way, with one side empty and covered up. It's called bad reporting, using Facebook posts as a source.

A better hint would have been any change on the Model S when it was refreshed more recently. But, as we all know, there were zero changes re: camera, camera housing, or sensors.

I was going to reply, but someone else already linked the non-Facebook article I was referring to.

 

[Saghost]

I was going to reply, but someone else already linked the non-Facebook article I was referring to.

Yeah. But if you read the non-Facebook article, it is a news website making a story about the item from Facebook.

And as grommet said, it's been discussed for a long time and every model X delivered to date has had a dual camera housing, ever since the initial Founder's edition deliveries a year ago. Every one of those cars has a camera only on the right side of the housing, with the left blanked out.

For come reason, the guy that started the FB thread got his back from service still with only one camera in it, but the blank that normally covers the left side was missing. Seems more likely to be a mistake at the service center than proof of the future.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Yeah. But if you read the non-Facebook article, it is a news website making a story about the item from Facebook.

And as grommet said, it's been discussed for a long time and every model X delivered to date has had a dual camera housing, ever since the initial Founder's edition deliveries a year ago. Every one of those cars has a camera only on the right side of the housing, with the left blanked out.

For come reason, the guy that started the FB thread got his back from service still with only one camera in it, but the blank that normally covers the left side was missing. Seems more likely to be a mistake at the service center than proof of the future.

the whole comment came off as smug, paired with the "look at me" Silicon Valley location, and it just reeked of "I'm smarter than you".

if you know as much as you claim to, please share.

since you're in Silicon Valley, maybe you have connections. But if we're just naming off TV shows we like, maybe i'll change mine to Silicon Valley too.

 

[Saghost]

the whole comment came off as smug, paired with the "look at me" Silicon Valley location, and it just reeked of "I'm smarter than you".

if you know as much as you claim to, please share.

since you're in Silicon Valley, maybe you have connections. But if we're just naming off TV shows we like, maybe i'll change mine to Silicon Valley too.

Huh? Where does my profile say Silicon Valley? It shouldn't. My location clearly says Delaware.

I'm not trying to be smug - just maybe a little exasperated that everyone still thinks there's a magic pony hiding in there even though we've had dozens of threads on the topic with the same information every time.

Then your comment about a non-FB article seemed to suggest that you felt it had more validity because it wasn't from FB - which is why I had to point out that in the modern internet, one piece of information from social media quickly turns in to a bunch of articles - even if the piece from social media is mistaken or mis understood.

For the record, I don't *know* anything more about AP 2 than you do - but I've read a lot of threads on it lately.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Huh? Where does my profile say Silicon Valley? It shouldn't. My location clearly says Delaware.

I'm not trying to be smug - just maybe a little exasperated that everyone still thinks there's a magic pony hiding in there even though we've had dozens of threads on the topic with the same information every time.

Then your comment about a non-FB article seemed to suggest that you felt it had more validity because it wasn't from FB - which is why I had to point out that in the modern internet, one piece of information from social media quickly turns in to a bunch of articles - even if the piece from social media is mistaken or mis understood.

For the record, I don't *know* anything more about AP 2 than you do - but I've read a lot of threads on it lately.

not you, the guy you jumped all over defending who initially made the comment about the "FB article"


I read plenty of articles and threads too, and electrek is actually a reliable source for Tesla news. If it had come directly from FB, I'd have been less likely to bring it up. but electrek usually follows up on their pieces.

Everyone on here seems to either want to be the first to "break" news we all saw hours ago (don't believe me....wait for Elon's next "big" tweet and see how many different threads analyzing it pop up).

Or the less helpful ones than that? the ones who decide it's their duty to dis-spell everything they see on here, all while acting as if they have some insider knowledge.

the internet is a terrible place, and it's why we can't have nice things.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Hope that Elon will replace AP2 with AD1 (Autonomous Driving) meaning that the new system will guarantee autonomous driving at least when the current AP1 is able to work. Think that new hardware has to be added, Maybe it will be a little more expansive but who cares if safety is better guaranteed?

I like this idea.