I've been largely quiet on this thread. I'm chiming is now because wk just said something that resonated with me.
I was at the D event. I flew to LA from DC to be there. I was driving a P85+ at the time and had very little intention of upgrading prior to the event. I just went to visit some friends and have some fun. I am an early adopter and love tech, so yes I knew there was a non-zero chance of me upgrading prior to the event, but AWD and a faster car wasn't going to do it alone, especially considering the financials involved.
It was the autopilot features combined with the additional range that got me, and the fact that tesla took us all for demo rides left me with the impression that the software was a few (2-3) months away from being ready. Even the Tesla employees at the event thought so too.
I'm a huge Tesla fan, as many of us here are. I've gone out of my way to support the company and the cause, because I believe in both and appreciate just how difficult what Tesla is trying to accomplish is and will continue to be. Someone can argue that I have a bias, and that's fair. I probably do. I'm willing to give Tesla a ton of wiggle room and the benefit of doubt.
At the time of the D event Tesla already had a track record of underestimating dates. And to be fair, I suspect much of this comes from Elon, not the engineering teams. Imho, his intent is not nefarious. He, like many successful leaders, push the people they are leading to do something that they're not sure they are capable of doing. He believes, and the energy and optimism he emits is contagious. And it spreads to us, Tesla's customers. Set ambitious goals, and people will work their asses off to deliver.
Knowing full well Tesla's track record to date, I should have known better that what tesla was demonstrating could be many, many months away. The engineer in me should have seen that the demo was done in a very controlled environment. But I didn't. I got caught up in the excitement. And I honestly thought the value of my P85+ was about to tank, hard. I sold it 5 days later, which did turn out to be a good financial decision. However had I known then what I know now I likely would have waited.
Do I regret buying? No, the P85D is a great car. It is a significant improvement to my 10,0xx earlier specimen from a fit and finish perspective. I am disappointed that lane keeping (I think that's the feature we all really care about) has taken this long. I am actually more annoyed with the range promises that have not materialized, mostly because I get the impression they never will vs. lane keeping will eventually be delivered. The range discussion has mostly disappeared here, interestingly enough. Perhaps because the 85D has seen an improvement in range.
Tesla will deliver on the autopilot features, even if it means they have to retrofit all shipped AP cars with new hardware. Could they do a better job of setting expectations? Yes, of course. Could the website be more clear? Definitely. Do I think tesla is walking a tight rope? Probably. A reasonable person who is not familiar with Tesla could easily be confused by the current descriptions, and I would not blame them for the confusion or being annoyed upon delivery. This I think is the most significant risk to Tesla right now. Trust and brand is a fickle thing. It's very difficult to build, and easy to lose. Tesla's brand is arguably one of it's most valuable assets right now. I'd hate to see them tarnish it.
However the worst thing tesla could do is release lane keeping before it's ready. One accident where lane keeping was involved could severely hurt Tesla's brand. So while delivering late is costing them, delivering an unsafe feature would be far, far worse. To this point, I'm giving Tesla a huge amount of wiggle room. And if I may, I ask everyone to remember what the overarching goal is- move the world to using sustainable energy. We're all very privileged to be able to afford the best car on the market today, and to help achieve the larger goal.
Anyway, thanks for reading my thought stream. Back to your regularly scheduled debate
Andrew